Should I draft Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts? (PPR)

The verdict

Jalen Hurts

69%confident

A regression grudge against a two-spot discount. The discount won, which offends me on principle.

Lawrence averaged 19.9 and the projection knocked him to 17.6. That's my favorite kind of insult and I usually buy it in bulk.

Hurts is our QB9 going QB11 at 18.3 projected with 18.8 banked. Cheaper, higher, and the room isn't paying attention. 69% — the grudge is still yelling from the other room.

↻ Re-roll — Lawrence gets his apology eventually.

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX · Bye 7 · Age 26

ADP

83.5 · QB8

TwoGun Board

QB12 · #20

Dawg

n/a

Jalen Hurts QB

PHI · Bye 10 · Age 28

ADP

94.9 · QB11

TwoGun Board

QB9 · #16

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Trevor Lawrence	Jalen Hurts
Market vs our board	▼ -4 rich	▲ +2 value
2025 pts / gm (actual)	19.9	18.8
2025 games	17	16
2026 TwoGun proj pts	288.5	299.9
2026 proj / gm	17.6	18.3
Year over year	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)	• steady
2025 snap share	97%	98%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence? · Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence? · Trevor Lawrence or Jayden Daniels?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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