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Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence? (PPR)
The verdict
Trevor Lawrence
71%confident
Two men the spreadsheet insulted. I can only defend one at a time.
Mahomes: 20.4 last year, projected 17.6. Lawrence: 19.9, projected 18.1. Both got called regression by a machine that's never been to Jacksonville or Kansas City.
Lawrence is four years younger, played all 17, and costs a pick later. The defense rests. Quietly, at 71%, because the other guy is still Patrick Mahomes.
↻ Re-roll — the Mahomes defense takes the podium some days.
Patrick Mahomes QB
KC · Bye 5 · Age 30
ADP
76.0 · QB7
TwoGun Board
QB14 · #19
Dog
n/a
Trevor Lawrence QB
JAX · Bye 7 · Age 26
ADP
81.9 · QB8
TwoGun Board
QB9 · #12
Dog
n/a
| Patrick Mahomes | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -7 rich | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 20.4 | 19.9 |
| 2025 games | 14 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 283.8 | 295.9 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 17.6 | 18.1 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 97% | 97% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT