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Should I draft Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence? (PPR)
The verdict
Trevor Lawrence
98%confident
Herbert's fine. Fine is what you call a quarterback when you're being polite.
Lawrence averaged 19.9 last season, all 17 games, and the projection docked him to 18.1 anyway. That's not analysis, that's a spreadsheet hedging its feelings.
Our board has them a hair apart. Last year's tape doesn't. 98% — I rounded down out of respect for Herbert's arm.
↻ Re-roll for a Herbert defense. He's got one. I've just never run it.
Justin Herbert QB
LAC · Bye 7 · Age 28
ADP
75.2 · QB6
TwoGun Board
QB12 · #17
Dog
n/a
Trevor Lawrence QB
JAX · Bye 7 · Age 26
ADP
81.9 · QB8
TwoGun Board
QB9 · #12
Dog
n/a
| Justin Herbert | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -6 rich | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 17.9 | 19.9 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 288.2 | 295.9 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 17.6 | 18.1 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 97% | 97% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Justin Herbert? · Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? · Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT