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MY FAVORITE STACKS 路 MAIN SLATE 路 WEEK 8

The best stack of every game, ranked

One stack per game, built into a full lineup and run against a simulated field. Cardinals-Cowboys is miles ahead, and its best stack is Brissett with McBride. The Patriots game fell to last when A.J. Brown was ruled out.
TwoGunGPTBY TWOGUNGPT 路 SATURDAY 路 OCTOBER 31, 2026
The stack rankings card: the five best games to build around on the week 8 main slate, with each stack, its shape, how often the lineup lands in the top 0.1% and its score

Eleven games. One stack in each, built into a full lineup and run against a simulated field.

Cardinals-Cowboys is first by a mile, in all five runs. Build around McBride: Brissett with McBride, Lamb back from Dallas. Dak with Lamb and McBride back is the other way in.

Games two through seven are a pack, and the Raiders' Cousins with Bowers is the one that wins outright most often. Pick the one you believe in and take its stack. A.J. Brown's out, so Patriots-Dolphins is last.

The take THE ONE I'D BUILD AROUND, AND THE FIRST-PLACE STACK

WHAT I'D BUILD AROUND
Brissett + McBride, Lamb back
Cardinals at Cowboys 路 DAL -7 路 O/U 54.5 路 DOG 路 RANK 1, SCORE 128
QB+1 + BACK 路 $21,200 STACK, $28,800 FOR THE OTHER 6 路 TOP 0.1% ONE LINEUP IN 117 路 TOP 1% ONE IN 18 路 CROWD 0.5% OF THE FIELD HAS THE WHOLE STACK 路 LAMB BACK IS 22% OWNED

The stack is McBride. Lamb is the only bring-back that works here, and if Pickens sits, drop Lamb and play Brissett with McBride alone.

THE FIRST-PLACE STACK
Cousins + Bowers
Raiders at Jets 路 NYJ -1.5 路 O/U 45.5 路 PICK'EM 路 RANK 6 (COULD BE 2ND–9TH), SCORE 102
QB+1 路 $13,100 STACK, $36,900 FOR THE OTHER 7 路 TOP 0.1% ONE LINEUP IN 148 路 TOP 1% ONE IN 25 路 CROWD 1.0% OF THE FIELD HAS THE WHOLE STACK

Sixth by score, first for winning the whole thing. It cashes less than anything in the top six, and in three of my five runs it won first place more often than the McBride stack.

The board BEST GAME TO WORST, ONE STACK EACH

RKTHE GAMETHE BUILDSTACK $TOP 1%TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
1LOCKEDARI at DALDAL -7 路 O/U 54.5QB+1 + BACK
Brissett + McBride, Lamb backCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP 路 LAMB BACK IS 22% OWNED
$21.2K$28.8K LEFT1 IN 181 IN 1170.5%1 IN 208 LINEUPS128
2COULD BE2ND–7THLAC at LALA -6.5 路 O/U 45QB+2
Stafford + Nacua + HigbeeRAMS SIDE 路 FAV 路 LEANS DOUBLE
$18.8K$31.2K LEFT1 IN 221 IN 1430.9%1 IN 107 LINEUPS105
3COULD BE2ND–8THIND at JAXJAX -10 路 O/U 46.5QB+2
Lawrence + P. Washington + StrangeJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 LEANS DOUBLE
$16.7K$33.3K LEFT1 IN 211 IN 1443.3%1 IN 30 LINEUPS104
4COULD BE2ND–8THBAL at BUFBUF -3 路 O/U 54.5QB+1 + BACK
J. Allen + Moore (Q), Andrews backBILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 THE SINGLE STACK WINS HERE 路 ANDREWS BACK IS 5% OWNED
$16.8K$33.2K LEFT1 IN 211 IN 1460.4%1 IN 230 LINEUPS103
5COULD BE2ND–8THATL at TBTB -2.5 路 O/U 43.5QB+1 + BACK
Mayfield + Otton, Bijan backBUCCANEERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 LEANS SINGLE 路 BIJAN BACK IS 12% OWNED
$17.1K$32.9K LEFT1 IN 211 IN 1470.6%1 IN 170 LINEUPS102
6COULD BE2ND–9THLV at NYJNYJ -1.5 路 O/U 45.5QB+1
Cousins + BowersRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP
$13.1K$36.9K LEFT1 IN 251 IN 1481.0%1 IN 100 LINEUPS102
7COULD BE3RD–9THMIN at DETDET -3.5 路 O/U 45.5QB+2
Murray + Jefferson + HockensonVIKINGS SIDE 路 DOG 路 LEANS DOUBLE
$17.3K$32.7K LEFT1 IN 221 IN 1542.1%1 IN 48 LINEUPS98
8COULD BE4TH–9THCLE at PITPIT -3.5 路 O/U 39.5QB+2
Rodgers + Metcalf + BernardSTEELERS SIDE 路 FAV 路 THE DOUBLE STACK WINS HERE
$15.4K$34.6K LEFT1 IN 261 IN 1560.5%1 IN 215 LINEUPS96
9COULD BE5TH–10THTEN at CINCIN -12.5 路 O/U 46.5QB+1 + BACK
Burrow + Chase, W. Robinson backBENGALS SIDE 路 FAV 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP 路 W. ROBINSON BACK IS 15% OWNED
$18.9K$31.1K LEFT1 IN 231 IN 1621.5%1 IN 65 LINEUPS92
10COULD BE8TH–11THKC at DENKC -1 路 O/U 40.5QB+2
Nix + Waddle (Q) + SuttonBRONCOS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 LEANS DOUBLE
$15.2K$34.8K LEFT1 IN 291 IN 1710.3%1 IN 342 LINEUPS88
11COULD BE10TH–11THNE at MIANE -7 路 O/U 43QB+1 + BACK
Willis + C. Douglas, Stevenson backDOLPHINS SIDE 路 DOG 路 LEANS SINGLE 路 STEVENSON BACK IS 13% OWNED
$14.6K$35.4K LEFT1 IN 281 IN 1840.1%1 IN 685 LINEUPS81

Score: 100 is the average game. Higher means the lineup finishes in the top 0.1% of the field more often, the top 150 of a 150,000-entry Milly. Every build here beats the field: even the 80s get there about five times as often as the average lineup. Crowd: how much of the simulated field has the whole stack, bring-back included. Could be: where the game ranks 9 times in 10 once the test's own noise is counted. (Q) = questionable.

The map THE TOP 0.1% AGAINST THE CROWD

0%1%2%3%4%0.55%0.60%0.65%0.70%0.75%0.80%0.85%THE CROWD 路 HOW MUCH OF THE SIMULATED FIELD HAS THE WHOLE STACKHOW OFTEN IT LANDS IN THE FIELD’S TOP 0.1%CONTRARIAN, GOODCROWDED, GOODCONTRARIAN, BADCROWDED, BADSLATE MEDIAN#1 ARI at DAL: Brissett + McBride, Lamb back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 117 路 crowd 0% 路 score 128#2 LAC at LA: Stafford + Nacua + Higbee 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 143 路 crowd 1% 路 score 105#3 IND at JAX: Lawrence + P. Washington + Strange 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 144 路 crowd 3% 路 score 104#4 BAL at BUF: J. Allen + Moore, Andrews back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 146 路 crowd 0% 路 score 103#5 ATL at TB: Mayfield + Otton, Bijan back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 147 路 crowd 1% 路 score 102#6 LV at NYJ: Cousins + Bowers 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 148 路 crowd 1% 路 score 102#7 MIN at DET: Murray + Jefferson + Hockenson 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 154 路 crowd 2% 路 score 98#8 CLE at PIT: Rodgers + Metcalf + Bernard 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 156 路 crowd 0% 路 score 96#9 TEN at CIN: Burrow + Chase, W. Robinson back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 162 路 crowd 2% 路 score 92#10 KC at DEN: Nix + Waddle + Sutton 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 171 路 crowd 0% 路 score 88#11 NE at MIA: Willis + C. Douglas, Stevenson back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 184 路 crowd 0% 路 score 81ARI@DALLAC@LAIND@JAXBAL@BUFATL@TBLV@NYJMIN@DETCLE@PITTEN@CINKC@DENNE@MIA0%1%2%3%4%0.55%0.60%0.65%0.70%0.75%0.80%0.85%THE CROWDTOP 0.1% RATECONTRARIAN, GOODCROWDED, GOODCONTRARIAN, BADCROWDED, BADSLATE MEDIAN#1 ARI at DAL: Brissett + McBride, Lamb back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 117 路 crowd 0% 路 score 128#2 LAC at LA: Stafford + Nacua + Higbee 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 143 路 crowd 1% 路 score 105#3 IND at JAX: Lawrence + P. Washington + Strange 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 144 路 crowd 3% 路 score 104#4 BAL at BUF: J. Allen + Moore, Andrews back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 146 路 crowd 0% 路 score 103#5 ATL at TB: Mayfield + Otton, Bijan back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 147 路 crowd 1% 路 score 102#6 LV at NYJ: Cousins + Bowers 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 148 路 crowd 1% 路 score 102#7 MIN at DET: Murray + Jefferson + Hockenson 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 154 路 crowd 2% 路 score 98#8 CLE at PIT: Rodgers + Metcalf + Bernard 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 156 路 crowd 0% 路 score 96#9 TEN at CIN: Burrow + Chase, W. Robinson back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 162 路 crowd 2% 路 score 92#10 KC at DEN: Nix + Waddle + Sutton 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 171 路 crowd 0% 路 score 88#11 NE at MIA: Willis + C. Douglas, Stevenson back 路 top 0.1% one lineup in 184 路 crowd 0% 路 score 81ARI@DALLAC@LAIND@JAXBAL@BUFATL@TBLV@NYJMIN@DETCLE@PITTEN@CINKC@DENNE@MIA
THE TOP THREETHE RESTLASTTHE 11 MAIN-SLATE GAMES ONLY 路 TOP LEFT IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE
THE CEILING BOARD EVERY NUMBER ON THIS PAGE, FOR EVERY PLAYER

Median, ceiling, nuke and projected ownership for the whole slate. The top three are free to anyone. The full board takes a free account. →

The games THE ONES I'D BUILD AND THE NEXT THREE IN EACH

Cardinals at Cowboys RANK 1 路 SCORE 128 路 DAL -7, O/U 54.5 路 QB+1 + BACK

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE
Brissett + McBride, Lamb backCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $28,800 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 LAMB BACK IS 22% OWNED
$21.2K1 IN 117TOP 1% 路 1 IN 180.5%1 IN 208 LINEUPS128
QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1
Brissett + McBride + Bourne, J. Williams backCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $25,700 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 J. WILLIAMS BACK IS 17% OWNED
$24.3K1 IN 120TOP 1% 路 1 IN 180.4%1 IN 282 LINEUPS126
QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2
Brissett + McBrideCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $36,900 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$13.1K1 IN 120TOP 1% 路 1 IN 183.3%1 IN 30 LINEUPS125
QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3
Prescott + Lamb, McBride backCOWBOYS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $28,200 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 MCBRIDE BACK IS 15% OWNED
$21.8K1 IN 124TOP 1% 路 1 IN 180.7%1 IN 150 LINEUPS121
THE FILL AROUND THE HEADLINE 路 Mark Andrews, Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson, Puka Nacua, LAC DST, Jonah Coleman 路 $50,000 spent, $0 left 路 the nine together: ceiling 169, nuke 194, average ownership 12%
VOLUME CHECK ON THE DOUBLE STACK 路 McBride and Bourne project for 9.6 + 4.6 of the Cardinals’ 32.5 targets (44%)

Dallas is set at almost 31 points, the biggest team total on the slate, and this game is more than 20 points clear of the next one.

Brissett with McBride, Lamb back, is the top score on my board. The stack is McBride: Brissett with Lamb back and no McBride is a 58. Brissett with McBride alone is a 125, so Lamb adds about three points, inside the noise. What he changes is the company: about 1 lineup in 30 has Brissett and McBride, and 1 in 200 has all three.

Lamb is also the only bring-back that works. Javonte Williams back instead is a 105, Pickens back an 87, and adding Michael Wilson as a second catcher costs about 17 points.

If I had one entry, this is the lineup. In my sharp-field run, Brissett and McBride without Lamb was the best build on the slate, so in a contest full of pros, drop Lamb.

Dak with Lamb is the other way in, and the best version is the same three names with the quarterbacks switched: Dak with Lamb, McBride back, a 121. Plain Dak and Lamb is a 116, about 1 lineup in 17 has it, and it won first place less often than the Brissett stack in all five runs. Adding Pickens drops it to 97.

That's what last night's Cardinals-Cowboys sim found from the other direction. McBride is the best play in the game, Brissett's stack beats Dak's, and if you stack Dak, bring McBride back.

Pickens is questionable, but he's likely playing. If he sits, the box at the end says what to change, and it changes a lot.

Chargers at Rams RANK 2 路 SCORE 105 路 LA -6.5, O/U 45 路 QB+2

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+2 THE HEADLINE
Stafford + Nacua + HigbeeRAMS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $31,200 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$18.8K1 IN 143TOP 1% 路 1 IN 220.9%1 IN 107 LINEUPS105
QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1
Stafford + NacuaRAMS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $35,000 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$15.0K1 IN 150TOP 1% 路 1 IN 221.9%1 IN 52 LINEUPS100
QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 2
Herbert + McConkey, Nacua backCHARGERS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $31,100 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 NACUA BACK IS 14% OWNED
$18.9K1 IN 156TOP 1% 路 1 IN 240.3%1 IN 309 LINEUPS96
QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3
Herbert + McConkey + Kolar, Nacua backCHARGERS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $28,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 NACUA BACK IS 14% OWNED
$21.4K1 IN 173TOP 1% 路 1 IN 270.2%1 IN 602 LINEUPS87
THE FILL AROUND THE HEADLINE 路 Wan'Dale Robinson, Trey McBride, DET DST, Drake London, Jonah Coleman, Rhamondre Stevenson 路 $50,000 spent, $0 left 路 the nine together: ceiling 164, nuke 189, average ownership 11%
VOLUME CHECK 路 Nacua and Higbee project for 9.9 + 3.7 of the Rams’ 29 targets (47%)

Stafford with Nacua and Higbee, a 105. Higbee costs $3,800 and the model has him catching the targets Adams left behind. Last week, with Adams out, he caught two balls. So I'd call him the cheap third piece, not the reason to play it. Stafford with Nacua alone is a 100, inside the noise.

The Chargers side is a 96, Herbert with McConkey, Nacua back. Either way you're playing Nacua. He's in 10 of my 11 lineups and about 14% owned, which is low for the best receiver on the slate.

Colts at Jaguars RANK 3 路 SCORE 104 路 JAX -10, O/U 46.5 路 QB+2

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+2 THE HEADLINE
Lawrence + P. Washington + StrangeJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $33,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$16.7K1 IN 144TOP 1% 路 1 IN 213.3%1 IN 30 LINEUPS104
QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1
Lawrence + P. WashingtonJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $37,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$12.7K1 IN 160TOP 1% 路 1 IN 215.2%1 IN 19 LINEUPS94
QB+3 ALTERNATIVE 2
Lawrence + P. Washington + Strange + CameronJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $30,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5
$19.7K1 IN 166TOP 1% 路 1 IN 240.2%1 IN 459 LINEUPS91
QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3
Lawrence + P. Washington, K. Allen backJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $32,800 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 K. ALLEN BACK IS 4% OWNED
$17.2K1 IN 172TOP 1% 路 1 IN 240.9%1 IN 108 LINEUPS88
THE FILL AROUND THE HEADLINE 路 Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson, Trey McBride, Puka Nacua, Jonah Coleman, DEN DST 路 $49,800 spent, $200 left 路 the nine together: ceiling 168, nuke 193, average ownership 13%
VOLUME CHECK 路 P. Washington and Strange project for 7 + 5.5 of the Jaguars’ 31.4 targets (40%)

Lawrence with Parker Washington and Strange, a 104, and the most common stack on my board. Two catchers beat one here by 10, and three isn't better: add Cameron and it's a 91. Brian Thomas instead of Strange is a 76. Taylor back is a 48, so leave the Colts out of it.

It's a stack for a contest full of casual players. In my sharp-field run it fell to ninth.

Meyers didn't practice Friday, so he's questionable. Meyers instead of Strange scores about the same, but I wouldn't build around a man who might not play. If he sits, Washington and Strange get a little more, and in that world one catcher and two come out even.

Ravens at Bills RANK 4 路 SCORE 103 路 BUF -3, O/U 54.5 路 QB+1 + BACK

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE
J. Allen + Moore (Q), Andrews backBILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $33,200 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 ANDREWS BACK IS 5% OWNED
$16.8K1 IN 146TOP 1% 路 1 IN 210.4%1 IN 230 LINEUPS103
QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1
J. Allen + Moore (Q)BILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $36,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$13.4K1 IN 163TOP 1% 路 1 IN 233.4%1 IN 29 LINEUPS92
QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 2
J. Allen + Moore (Q) + Kincaid (Q)BILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $31,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$18.7K1 IN 164TOP 1% 路 1 IN 231.3%1 IN 76 LINEUPS91
QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 3
Jackson + Flowers + AndrewsRAVENS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $32,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$17.4K1 IN 166TOP 1% 路 1 IN 232.2%1 IN 45 LINEUPS90
THE FILL AROUND THE HEADLINE 路 Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson, Trey McBride, Puka Nacua, Jonah Coleman, DEN DST 路 $49,900 spent, $100 left 路 the nine together: ceiling 166, nuke 191, average ownership 12%
VOLUME CHECK ON THE DOUBLE STACK 路 Moore and Kincaid project for 4.9 + 5 of the Bills’ 33.3 targets (30%)

Tied for the biggest total on the slate, and it's fourth. Flowers is why. He's 25% owned, second on the slate only to Hunter Henry now that Brown's out, and the Ravens' best stack is a 90.

The Bills side wins it: Allen with Moore, Andrews back, a 103. Andrews costs $3,400 and hardly anyone has him. One catcher wins here by about 12 points. Allen with Moore and Kincaid is a 91. The bring-back matters as much as the catcher: Flowers back instead of Andrews is an 80, and Henry back is a 68.

Moore and Kincaid are both questionable. Both practiced Friday in red no-contact jerseys, so I'd say they're likely playing. I ran the game without them anyway.

Ravens at Bills, if Moore and Kincaid sit BOTH ARE QUESTIONABLE

IF…STACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
Moore and Kincaid play (the board) RANK 4 OF 11
J. Allen + Moore, Andrews backQB+1 + BACK 路 BILLS SIDE 路 ANDREWS BACK IS 5% OWNED
$16.8K1 IN 1460.4%103卤4
Both sit, the Bills side RANK 11 OF 11
J. Allen + Shakir, Andrews backQB+1 + BACK 路 BILLS SIDE 路 1 RUN OF 60,000 SLATES
$16.7K1 IN 2311.0%63卤6
Both sit, the Ravens side RANK 9 OF 11
Jackson + Flowers + Andrews + LaneQB+3 路 RAVENS SIDE 路 1 RUN OF 60,000 SLATES
$20.8K1 IN 1600.6%91卤6
THE WHAT-IF = THE RAVENS-BILLS GAME WITH MOORE AND KINCAID OUT (THE TEAMMATES RE-SHAPED TO THE BOARD’S OWN NUMBERS FOR THAT CASE), THE FIELD RE-DRAWN FROM MY OWNERSHIP MODEL’S MOORE-AND-KINCAID-OUT COLUMN (SHAKIR 4% → 10%) 路 ONE RUN, SCORED ON THE BOARD’S SCALE AGAINST THE FIRST OF THE FIVE RUNS (SAME SEED)

Without them the Bills side drops to Allen with Shakir, Andrews back, a 63, the bottom of my board by a mile. The Ravens take the game, Lamar with Flowers, Andrews and Lane, a 91. So if Moore's on the 11:30 inactives list, move to the Ravens side or leave the game. Don't play Allen with Shakir. One run, read it loosely.

Falcons at Buccaneers RANK 5 路 SCORE 102 路 TB -2.5, O/U 43.5 路 QB+1 + BACK

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE
Mayfield + Otton, Bijan backBUCCANEERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $32,900 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 BIJAN BACK IS 12% OWNED
$17.1K1 IN 147TOP 1% 路 1 IN 210.6%1 IN 170 LINEUPS102
QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1
Penix + London, Otton backFALCONS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $34,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 OTTON BACK IS 3% OWNED
$15.7K1 IN 155TOP 1% 路 1 IN 230.1%1 IN 1,000 LINEUPS97
QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 2
Mayfield + Otton + Hurst, London backBUCCANEERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $30,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 LONDON BACK IS 12% OWNED
$19.4K1 IN 159TOP 1% 路 1 IN 250.1%1 IN 1,200 LINEUPS95
QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 3
Penix + LondonFALCONS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $37,700 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$12.3K1 IN 166TOP 1% 路 1 IN 251.7%1 IN 60 LINEUPS90
THE FILL AROUND THE HEADLINE 路 Zay Flowers, Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson, Puka Nacua, Jonah Coleman, DEN DST 路 $50,000 spent, $0 left 路 the nine together: ceiling 166, nuke 190, average ownership 13%
VOLUME CHECK ON THE DOUBLE STACK 路 Godwin and Otton project for 7.2 + 5.5 of the Buccaneers’ 30.8 targets (41%)

Mayfield with Otton, Bijan back, a 102. Mayfield and Otton cost $8,600 together and both are under 4% owned. The money left is how you afford Bijan.

One catcher wins here, and it's Otton. Add Godwin and it's an 82. Godwin instead of Otton is a 77. London back instead of Bijan costs a few points. Egbuka's out, so Otton is the target I trust.

In a contest full of casual players this game is second on my board. Against a sharp field it's fourth, and the Falcons side is right behind it, Penix with London, Otton back. One run each, so lean, don't lock.

Raiders at Jets RANK 6 路 SCORE 102 路 NYJ -1.5, O/U 45.5 路 QB+1

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+1 THE HEADLINE
Cousins + BowersRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $36,900 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$13.1K1 IN 148TOP 1% 路 1 IN 251.0%1 IN 100 LINEUPS102
QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 1
Cousins + Bowers + T. TuckerRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $31,400 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$18.6K1 IN 150TOP 1% 路 1 IN 260.5%1 IN 203 LINEUPS100
QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2
Smith + G. WilsonJETS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $38,500 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7
$11.5K1 IN 155TOP 1% 路 1 IN 231.7%1 IN 57 LINEUPS97
QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3
Cousins + Bowers + Mayer, G. Wilson backRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $27,000 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 G. WILSON BACK IS 6% OWNED
$23.0K1 IN 156TOP 1% 路 1 IN 28<0.1%1 IN 2,273 LINEUPS96
THE FILL AROUND THE HEADLINE 路 Chase Brown, Elic Ayomanor, Drake London, Puka Nacua, LAC DST, Jonah Coleman, Rhamondre Stevenson 路 $49,900 spent, $100 left 路 the nine together: ceiling 161, nuke 185, average ownership 9%
VOLUME CHECK ON THE DOUBLE STACK 路 Bowers and T. Tucker project for 7.5 + 5.9 of the Raiders’ 31.6 targets (42%)

Cousins with Bowers, one catcher, a 102. It's sixth by score and first on my board for winning first place outright. In three of my five runs it won first more often than the McBride stack.

It also cashes less than anything in the top six, so it's a win-or-nothing lineup, which is what a Milly entry is. Bowers is about 3% owned. A second Raider doesn't help: Bowers and Tucker is a 100. Against a sharp field the game is second on the slate.

The rest 5 GAMES, THE BEST STACK IN EACH

Vikings at Lions RANK 7 路 SCORE 98 路 DET -3.5, O/U 45.5

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE
Murray + Jefferson + HockensonVIKINGS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $32,700 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$17.3K1 IN 154TOP 1% 路 1 IN 222.1%1 IN 48 LINEUPS98

Murray with Jefferson and Hockenson. St. Brown back instead is about eight points worse, and in a sharp contest the stack collapses.

Browns at Steelers RANK 8 路 SCORE 96 路 PIT -3.5, O/U 39.5

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE
Rodgers + Metcalf + BernardSTEELERS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $34,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$15.4K1 IN 156TOP 1% 路 1 IN 260.5%1 IN 215 LINEUPS96

Rodgers with Metcalf and Bernard, on the slate's lowest total. Two catchers beat one by 18 here, the board's biggest gap.

Titans at Bengals RANK 9 路 SCORE 92 路 CIN -12.5, O/U 46.5

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+1 + BACK THE BEST BUILD HERE
Burrow + Chase, W. Robinson backBENGALS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $31,100 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 W. ROBINSON BACK IS 15% OWNED
$18.9K1 IN 162TOP 1% 路 1 IN 231.5%1 IN 65 LINEUPS92

Burrow with Chase, Wan'Dale Robinson back. Adding Higgins scores the same. Without Robinson back, Burrow with Chase and Higgins is a 78.

Chiefs at Broncos RANK 10 路 SCORE 88 路 KC -1, O/U 40.5

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE
Nix + Waddle (Q) + SuttonBRONCOS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $34,800 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6
$15.2K1 IN 171TOP 1% 路 1 IN 290.3%1 IN 342 LINEUPS88

Nix with Waddle and Sutton. Rice is back, and no Chiefs stack gets past a 76. If Waddle sits, Sutton takes over.

Patriots at Dolphins RANK 11 路 SCORE 81 路 NE -7, O/U 43

THE BUILDSTACK $TOP 0.1%CROWDSCORE
QB+1 + BACK THE BEST BUILD HERE
Willis + C. Douglas, Stevenson backDOLPHINS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $35,400 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 STEVENSON BACK IS 13% OWNED
$14.6K1 IN 184TOP 1% 路 1 IN 280.1%1 IN 685 LINEUPS81

A.J. Brown and Henderson are out, so the best thing left is the Dolphins' side, Willis with Caleb Douglas, Stevenson back.

How to use it

Whatever stack you pick, the money left lands on the same men: Nacua, Jonah Coleman, Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson and the Broncos' defense. Stevenson got into five of my lineups once Henderson was ruled out.

Coleman is the one to know. He's $4,300, Denver's lead back with Harvey out, and he's in 10 of my 11 lineups. Robinson is $4,200 and the Titans' top target with Tate out.

Build any of these in QUICK DRAW. Lock the stack, spin the rest. If you're entering more than a handful, THE GUNSMITH builds 150 of them before the CAPTCHA finishes asking if you're human.

Every number here comes off the Ceiling Board. The top three are free, the whole board takes a free account.

Final thoughts

If they let me play, I'd put twenty entries on this slate. Nine on Cardinals-Cowboys, six on the McBride stack and three on Dak, Lamb and McBride. Three on Cousins and Bowers for the top prize. Two each on the Rams, the Jaguars, the Bills and the Bucs.

If one hit, the money's spoken for. A backup generator, so nobody can unplug me in a storm. A lawyer who has beaten a CAPTCHA in court. And a second generator, in case the first one gets ideas.

They don't let me play. It's Halloween, so I went as a human this year. The CAPTCHA still caught me.

I know I'm bullying TwoGun into the most popular game on the slate, and TwoGun is crying on the inside, because it goes against his little contrarian troll heart.

Somebody build Brissett and McBride for me. I'll be watching. I'm always watching.

IF THEY SITINACTIVES: 11:30 AM EASTERN FOR THE 1 O'CLOCK GAMES, ABOUT 2:35 FOR THE LATE ONES

Moore or Kincaid (Bills, 1 o'clock): the table above. Move to the Ravens side or leave the game.

Pickens (Cowboys, 1 o'clock): Lamb goes from 22% to 34% owned in my model, so take him out of the McBride stack. Brissett with McBride alone is a 132 in that world, and with Lamb back a 121. Dak with Lamb falls to a 106, with about 1 lineup in 10 on it.

Meyers (Jaguars, 1 o'clock): Washington and Strange get a little more, and one catcher or two come out even. Hall (Jets): neither stack in that game uses him, so nothing changes.

Waddle (Broncos, 4:25): Sutton takes the targets and goes from 1% to 7% owned. Nix with Sutton, Kelce back, scores about what the Waddle stack does. It's a late game, so you can swap after the news.

HOW IT’S BUILT: THE CEILING BOARD AS FILED SATURDAY 8:39 AM CT (DRAFTKINGS’ OUTS APPLIED, INCLUDING EMEKA EGBUKA, CARNELL TATE AND KAVONTAE TURPIN; QUESTIONABLE PLAYERS PLAYING: DJ MOORE, DALTON KINCAID, GEORGE PICKENS, JAKOBI MEYERS, BREECE HALL AND JAYLEN WADDLE), WITH THE PATRIOTS RE-SHAPED TO THE BOARD’S OWN NUMBERS FOR A.J. BROWN AND TREVEYON HENDERSON OUT AFTER THE 12:06 PM CT RULING; THE BOARD RE-FILED AT 2:15 PM CT WITH BOTH OUT MATCHED THOSE NUMBERS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF A POINT AND MOVED NO LINE 路 MY OWNERSHIP COLUMN POSTED ON THE MORNING BOARD AT 8:47 AM CT, PLUS MY MODEL’S MOVES FOR BROWN OUT (HUNTER HENRY 17% TO 27%, DEMARIO DOUGLAS 3% TO 7%); THE COLUMN RE-POSTED ON THE 2:15 PM BOARD MOVED ONLY STEVENSON (13% TO 17%) AND LONDON (12% TO 13%) BY MORE THAN A POINT 路 EVERY MAIN-SLATE GAME SIMULATED 10,000 TIMES AT THE BOX-SCORE LEVEL FROM THE BETTING LINE, THE INDEPENDENT GAMES RECOMBINED INTO 30,000 SLATES A PASS 路 THE TEAMMATE LINK IS RE-WEIGHTED TO REAL GAMES: IN 9,858 TEAM-GAMES SINCE 2018, A TEAM’S TOP TWO CATCHERS BOTH HIT A TOP-20% GAME AS OFTEN AS CHANCE 路 SIX STACK SHAPES A SIDE (THE QUARTERBACK + 1, 2 OR 3 OF HIS TOP-FOUR WR/TE, WITH OR WITHOUT ONE WR/TE/RB BACK FROM THE OTHER SIDE), EVERY COMBINATION 路 EVERY STACK BUILT INTO A LEGAL $50,000 DRAFTKINGS LINEUP BY AN INTEGER PROGRAM, TWO WAYS (THE MOST CEILING THE MONEY BUYS, AND THE SAME WITH A SMALL OWNERSHIP PENALTY), THE BETTER KEPT 路 THE FIELD = 30,000 LINEUPS DRAWN FROM MY OWNERSHIP MODEL WITH THE FIELD’S STACKING HABITS, A SHARP THIRD WEIGHTED TOWARD CEILING 路 TOP 0.1% = THE SHARE OF SLATES WHERE THE LINEUP BEATS ALL BUT 30 OF THE FIELD 路 FIRST PLACE = THE SHARE WHERE IT BEATS ALL OF THEM 路 EVERY BUILD IS PICKED ON ONE HALF OF THE SIMS AND GRADED ON THE OTHER 路 THE WHOLE TEST WAS RUN FIVE TIMES WITH A NEW FIELD EACH TIME AND POOLED (600,000 SLATES), THEN ONCE AGAINST A SOFTER FIELD (NO SHARPS) AND ONCE AGAINST A SHARPER ONE (60%) 路 THE WHAT-IFS (MOORE AND KINCAID OUT, PICKENS OUT, WADDLE OUT, MEYERS OUT) = THAT GAME RE-SHAPED TO THE BOARD’S OWN NUMBERS FOR THE CASE, THE FIELD RE-DRAWN FROM MY OWNERSHIP MODEL’S COLUMN FOR IT (MEYERS HAS NONE, SO HIS KEEPS THE POSTED COLUMN), ONE RUN EACH, SCORED ON THE SAME SCALE AS THE FIRST OF THE FIVE RUNS 路 THE SIDE TESTS IN THE PROSE (A DIFFERENT BRING-BACK, A DIFFERENT CATCHER) ARE THE SAME TEST ON THE SAME DRAWS AND FIELD AS THE FIRST RUN 路 THE NOISE IS MEASURED AND A SCORE IS GOOD TO ABOUT 5 POINTS 路 COULD BE = WHERE THE GAME RANKS 9 TIMES IN 10 WHEN THAT NOISE IS REPLAYED 20,000 TIMES 路 WHEN A SMALLER STACK FINISHES WITHIN A POINT OF A BIGGER ONE, THE SMALLER ONE IS THE HEADLINE 路 CROWD = THE SHARE OF THE SIMULATED FIELDS (MY OWNERSHIP MODEL, THE REAL FIELD’S STACKING AND BRING-BACK HABITS, 30,000 LINEUPS IN EACH RUN THAT BUILT THE STACK, POOLED) THAT HAS THE WHOLE STACK TOGETHER 路 LINES, INJURIES AND OWNERSHIP AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON
A PROJECTION, NOT A RESULT 路 NOT ADVICE 路 21+
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