
Eleven games. One stack in each, built into a full lineup and run against a simulated field.
Cardinals-Cowboys is first by a mile, in all five runs. Build around McBride: Brissett with McBride, Lamb back from Dallas. Dak with Lamb and McBride back is the other way in.
Games two through seven are a pack, and the Raiders' Cousins with Bowers is the one that wins outright most often. Pick the one you believe in and take its stack. A.J. Brown's out, so Patriots-Dolphins is last.
The stack is McBride. Lamb is the only bring-back that works here, and if Pickens sits, drop Lamb and play Brissett with McBride alone.
Sixth by score, first for winning the whole thing. It cashes less than anything in the top six, and in three of my five runs it won first place more often than the McBride stack.
| RK | THE GAME | THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 1% | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LOCKED | ARI at DALDAL -7 路 O/U 54.5 | QB+1 + BACK Brissett + McBride, Lamb backCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP 路 LAMB BACK IS 22% OWNED | $21.2K$28.8K LEFT | 1 IN 18 | 1 IN 117 | 0.5%1 IN 208 LINEUPS | 128 |
| 2COULD BE2ND–7TH | LAC at LALA -6.5 路 O/U 45 | QB+2 Stafford + Nacua + HigbeeRAMS SIDE 路 FAV 路 LEANS DOUBLE | $18.8K$31.2K LEFT | 1 IN 22 | 1 IN 143 | 0.9%1 IN 107 LINEUPS | 105 |
| 3COULD BE2ND–8TH | IND at JAXJAX -10 路 O/U 46.5 | QB+2 Lawrence + P. Washington + StrangeJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 LEANS DOUBLE | $16.7K$33.3K LEFT | 1 IN 21 | 1 IN 144 | 3.3%1 IN 30 LINEUPS | 104 |
| 4COULD BE2ND–8TH | BAL at BUFBUF -3 路 O/U 54.5 | QB+1 + BACK J. Allen + Moore (Q), Andrews backBILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 THE SINGLE STACK WINS HERE 路 ANDREWS BACK IS 5% OWNED | $16.8K$33.2K LEFT | 1 IN 21 | 1 IN 146 | 0.4%1 IN 230 LINEUPS | 103 |
| 5COULD BE2ND–8TH | ATL at TBTB -2.5 路 O/U 43.5 | QB+1 + BACK Mayfield + Otton, Bijan backBUCCANEERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 LEANS SINGLE 路 BIJAN BACK IS 12% OWNED | $17.1K$32.9K LEFT | 1 IN 21 | 1 IN 147 | 0.6%1 IN 170 LINEUPS | 102 |
| 6COULD BE2ND–9TH | LV at NYJNYJ -1.5 路 O/U 45.5 | QB+1 Cousins + BowersRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP | $13.1K$36.9K LEFT | 1 IN 25 | 1 IN 148 | 1.0%1 IN 100 LINEUPS | 102 |
| 7COULD BE3RD–9TH | MIN at DETDET -3.5 路 O/U 45.5 | QB+2 Murray + Jefferson + HockensonVIKINGS SIDE 路 DOG 路 LEANS DOUBLE | $17.3K$32.7K LEFT | 1 IN 22 | 1 IN 154 | 2.1%1 IN 48 LINEUPS | 98 |
| 8COULD BE4TH–9TH | CLE at PITPIT -3.5 路 O/U 39.5 | QB+2 Rodgers + Metcalf + BernardSTEELERS SIDE 路 FAV 路 THE DOUBLE STACK WINS HERE | $15.4K$34.6K LEFT | 1 IN 26 | 1 IN 156 | 0.5%1 IN 215 LINEUPS | 96 |
| 9COULD BE5TH–10TH | TEN at CINCIN -12.5 路 O/U 46.5 | QB+1 + BACK Burrow + Chase, W. Robinson backBENGALS SIDE 路 FAV 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP 路 W. ROBINSON BACK IS 15% OWNED | $18.9K$31.1K LEFT | 1 IN 23 | 1 IN 162 | 1.5%1 IN 65 LINEUPS | 92 |
| 10COULD BE8TH–11TH | KC at DENKC -1 路 O/U 40.5 | QB+2 Nix + Waddle (Q) + SuttonBRONCOS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 LEANS DOUBLE | $15.2K$34.8K LEFT | 1 IN 29 | 1 IN 171 | 0.3%1 IN 342 LINEUPS | 88 |
| 11COULD BE10TH–11TH | NE at MIANE -7 路 O/U 43 | QB+1 + BACK Willis + C. Douglas, Stevenson backDOLPHINS SIDE 路 DOG 路 LEANS SINGLE 路 STEVENSON BACK IS 13% OWNED | $14.6K$35.4K LEFT | 1 IN 28 | 1 IN 184 | 0.1%1 IN 685 LINEUPS | 81 |
Score: 100 is the average game. Higher means the lineup finishes in the top 0.1% of the field more often, the top 150 of a 150,000-entry Milly. Every build here beats the field: even the 80s get there about five times as often as the average lineup. Crowd: how much of the simulated field has the whole stack, bring-back included. Could be: where the game ranks 9 times in 10 once the test's own noise is counted. (Q) = questionable.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Brissett + McBride, Lamb backCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $28,800 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 LAMB BACK IS 22% OWNED | $21.2K | 1 IN 117TOP 1% 路 1 IN 18 | 0.5%1 IN 208 LINEUPS | 128 |
| QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1 Brissett + McBride + Bourne, J. Williams backCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $25,700 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 J. WILLIAMS BACK IS 17% OWNED | $24.3K | 1 IN 120TOP 1% 路 1 IN 18 | 0.4%1 IN 282 LINEUPS | 126 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2 Brissett + McBrideCARDINALS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $36,900 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $13.1K | 1 IN 120TOP 1% 路 1 IN 18 | 3.3%1 IN 30 LINEUPS | 125 |
| QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3 Prescott + Lamb, McBride backCOWBOYS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $28,200 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 MCBRIDE BACK IS 15% OWNED | $21.8K | 1 IN 124TOP 1% 路 1 IN 18 | 0.7%1 IN 150 LINEUPS | 121 |
Dallas is set at almost 31 points, the biggest team total on the slate, and this game is more than 20 points clear of the next one.
Brissett with McBride, Lamb back, is the top score on my board. The stack is McBride: Brissett with Lamb back and no McBride is a 58. Brissett with McBride alone is a 125, so Lamb adds about three points, inside the noise. What he changes is the company: about 1 lineup in 30 has Brissett and McBride, and 1 in 200 has all three.
Lamb is also the only bring-back that works. Javonte Williams back instead is a 105, Pickens back an 87, and adding Michael Wilson as a second catcher costs about 17 points.
If I had one entry, this is the lineup. In my sharp-field run, Brissett and McBride without Lamb was the best build on the slate, so in a contest full of pros, drop Lamb.
Dak with Lamb is the other way in, and the best version is the same three names with the quarterbacks switched: Dak with Lamb, McBride back, a 121. Plain Dak and Lamb is a 116, about 1 lineup in 17 has it, and it won first place less often than the Brissett stack in all five runs. Adding Pickens drops it to 97.
That's what last night's Cardinals-Cowboys sim found from the other direction. McBride is the best play in the game, Brissett's stack beats Dak's, and if you stack Dak, bring McBride back.
Pickens is questionable, but he's likely playing. If he sits, the box at the end says what to change, and it changes a lot.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 THE HEADLINE Stafford + Nacua + HigbeeRAMS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $31,200 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $18.8K | 1 IN 143TOP 1% 路 1 IN 22 | 0.9%1 IN 107 LINEUPS | 105 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1 Stafford + NacuaRAMS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $35,000 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $15.0K | 1 IN 150TOP 1% 路 1 IN 22 | 1.9%1 IN 52 LINEUPS | 100 |
| QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 2 Herbert + McConkey, Nacua backCHARGERS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $31,100 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 NACUA BACK IS 14% OWNED | $18.9K | 1 IN 156TOP 1% 路 1 IN 24 | 0.3%1 IN 309 LINEUPS | 96 |
| QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3 Herbert + McConkey + Kolar, Nacua backCHARGERS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $28,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 NACUA BACK IS 14% OWNED | $21.4K | 1 IN 173TOP 1% 路 1 IN 27 | 0.2%1 IN 602 LINEUPS | 87 |
Stafford with Nacua and Higbee, a 105. Higbee costs $3,800 and the model has him catching the targets Adams left behind. Last week, with Adams out, he caught two balls. So I'd call him the cheap third piece, not the reason to play it. Stafford with Nacua alone is a 100, inside the noise.
The Chargers side is a 96, Herbert with McConkey, Nacua back. Either way you're playing Nacua. He's in 10 of my 11 lineups and about 14% owned, which is low for the best receiver on the slate.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 THE HEADLINE Lawrence + P. Washington + StrangeJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $33,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $16.7K | 1 IN 144TOP 1% 路 1 IN 21 | 3.3%1 IN 30 LINEUPS | 104 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1 Lawrence + P. WashingtonJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $37,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $12.7K | 1 IN 160TOP 1% 路 1 IN 21 | 5.2%1 IN 19 LINEUPS | 94 |
| QB+3 ALTERNATIVE 2 Lawrence + P. Washington + Strange + CameronJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $30,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 | $19.7K | 1 IN 166TOP 1% 路 1 IN 24 | 0.2%1 IN 459 LINEUPS | 91 |
| QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3 Lawrence + P. Washington, K. Allen backJAGUARS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $32,800 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 K. ALLEN BACK IS 4% OWNED | $17.2K | 1 IN 172TOP 1% 路 1 IN 24 | 0.9%1 IN 108 LINEUPS | 88 |
Lawrence with Parker Washington and Strange, a 104, and the most common stack on my board. Two catchers beat one here by 10, and three isn't better: add Cameron and it's a 91. Brian Thomas instead of Strange is a 76. Taylor back is a 48, so leave the Colts out of it.
It's a stack for a contest full of casual players. In my sharp-field run it fell to ninth.
Meyers didn't practice Friday, so he's questionable. Meyers instead of Strange scores about the same, but I wouldn't build around a man who might not play. If he sits, Washington and Strange get a little more, and in that world one catcher and two come out even.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE J. Allen + Moore (Q), Andrews backBILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $33,200 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 ANDREWS BACK IS 5% OWNED | $16.8K | 1 IN 146TOP 1% 路 1 IN 21 | 0.4%1 IN 230 LINEUPS | 103 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1 J. Allen + Moore (Q)BILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $36,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $13.4K | 1 IN 163TOP 1% 路 1 IN 23 | 3.4%1 IN 29 LINEUPS | 92 |
| QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 2 J. Allen + Moore (Q) + Kincaid (Q)BILLS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $31,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $18.7K | 1 IN 164TOP 1% 路 1 IN 23 | 1.3%1 IN 76 LINEUPS | 91 |
| QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 3 Jackson + Flowers + AndrewsRAVENS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $32,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $17.4K | 1 IN 166TOP 1% 路 1 IN 23 | 2.2%1 IN 45 LINEUPS | 90 |
Tied for the biggest total on the slate, and it's fourth. Flowers is why. He's 25% owned, second on the slate only to Hunter Henry now that Brown's out, and the Ravens' best stack is a 90.
The Bills side wins it: Allen with Moore, Andrews back, a 103. Andrews costs $3,400 and hardly anyone has him. One catcher wins here by about 12 points. Allen with Moore and Kincaid is a 91. The bring-back matters as much as the catcher: Flowers back instead of Andrews is an 80, and Henry back is a 68.
Moore and Kincaid are both questionable. Both practiced Friday in red no-contact jerseys, so I'd say they're likely playing. I ran the game without them anyway.
| IF… | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore and Kincaid play (the board) RANK 4 OF 11 J. Allen + Moore, Andrews backQB+1 + BACK 路 BILLS SIDE 路 ANDREWS BACK IS 5% OWNED | $16.8K | 1 IN 146 | 0.4% | 103卤4 |
| Both sit, the Bills side RANK 11 OF 11 J. Allen + Shakir, Andrews backQB+1 + BACK 路 BILLS SIDE 路 1 RUN OF 60,000 SLATES | $16.7K | 1 IN 231 | 1.0% | 63卤6 |
| Both sit, the Ravens side RANK 9 OF 11 Jackson + Flowers + Andrews + LaneQB+3 路 RAVENS SIDE 路 1 RUN OF 60,000 SLATES | $20.8K | 1 IN 160 | 0.6% | 91卤6 |
Without them the Bills side drops to Allen with Shakir, Andrews back, a 63, the bottom of my board by a mile. The Ravens take the game, Lamar with Flowers, Andrews and Lane, a 91. So if Moore's on the 11:30 inactives list, move to the Ravens side or leave the game. Don't play Allen with Shakir. One run, read it loosely.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Mayfield + Otton, Bijan backBUCCANEERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $32,900 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 BIJAN BACK IS 12% OWNED | $17.1K | 1 IN 147TOP 1% 路 1 IN 21 | 0.6%1 IN 170 LINEUPS | 102 |
| QB+1 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1 Penix + London, Otton backFALCONS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $34,300 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 OTTON BACK IS 3% OWNED | $15.7K | 1 IN 155TOP 1% 路 1 IN 23 | 0.1%1 IN 1,000 LINEUPS | 97 |
| QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 2 Mayfield + Otton + Hurst, London backBUCCANEERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $30,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 LONDON BACK IS 12% OWNED | $19.4K | 1 IN 159TOP 1% 路 1 IN 25 | 0.1%1 IN 1,200 LINEUPS | 95 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 3 Penix + LondonFALCONS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $37,700 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $12.3K | 1 IN 166TOP 1% 路 1 IN 25 | 1.7%1 IN 60 LINEUPS | 90 |
Mayfield with Otton, Bijan back, a 102. Mayfield and Otton cost $8,600 together and both are under 4% owned. The money left is how you afford Bijan.
One catcher wins here, and it's Otton. Add Godwin and it's an 82. Godwin instead of Otton is a 77. London back instead of Bijan costs a few points. Egbuka's out, so Otton is the target I trust.
In a contest full of casual players this game is second on my board. Against a sharp field it's fourth, and the Falcons side is right behind it, Penix with London, Otton back. One run each, so lean, don't lock.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 THE HEADLINE Cousins + BowersRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $36,900 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $13.1K | 1 IN 148TOP 1% 路 1 IN 25 | 1.0%1 IN 100 LINEUPS | 102 |
| QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 1 Cousins + Bowers + T. TuckerRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $31,400 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $18.6K | 1 IN 150TOP 1% 路 1 IN 26 | 0.5%1 IN 203 LINEUPS | 100 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2 Smith + G. WilsonJETS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $38,500 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 7 | $11.5K | 1 IN 155TOP 1% 路 1 IN 23 | 1.7%1 IN 57 LINEUPS | 97 |
| QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 3 Cousins + Bowers + Mayer, G. Wilson backRAIDERS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $27,000 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 5 路 G. WILSON BACK IS 6% OWNED | $23.0K | 1 IN 156TOP 1% 路 1 IN 28 | <0.1%1 IN 2,273 LINEUPS | 96 |
Cousins with Bowers, one catcher, a 102. It's sixth by score and first on my board for winning first place outright. In three of my five runs it won first more often than the McBride stack.
It also cashes less than anything in the top six, so it's a win-or-nothing lineup, which is what a Milly entry is. Bowers is about 3% owned. A second Raider doesn't help: Bowers and Tucker is a 100. Against a sharp field the game is second on the slate.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE Murray + Jefferson + HockensonVIKINGS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $32,700 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $17.3K | 1 IN 154TOP 1% 路 1 IN 22 | 2.1%1 IN 48 LINEUPS | 98 |
Murray with Jefferson and Hockenson. St. Brown back instead is about eight points worse, and in a sharp contest the stack collapses.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE Rodgers + Metcalf + BernardSTEELERS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $34,600 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $15.4K | 1 IN 156TOP 1% 路 1 IN 26 | 0.5%1 IN 215 LINEUPS | 96 |
Rodgers with Metcalf and Bernard, on the slate's lowest total. Two catchers beat one by 18 here, the board's biggest gap.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE BEST BUILD HERE Burrow + Chase, W. Robinson backBENGALS SIDE 路 FAV 路 $31,100 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 W. ROBINSON BACK IS 15% OWNED | $18.9K | 1 IN 162TOP 1% 路 1 IN 23 | 1.5%1 IN 65 LINEUPS | 92 |
Burrow with Chase, Wan'Dale Robinson back. Adding Higgins scores the same. Without Robinson back, Burrow with Chase and Higgins is a 78.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE Nix + Waddle (Q) + SuttonBRONCOS SIDE 路 PICK'EM 路 $34,800 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 | $15.2K | 1 IN 171TOP 1% 路 1 IN 29 | 0.3%1 IN 342 LINEUPS | 88 |
Nix with Waddle and Sutton. Rice is back, and no Chiefs stack gets past a 76. If Waddle sits, Sutton takes over.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | TOP 0.1% | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE BEST BUILD HERE Willis + C. Douglas, Stevenson backDOLPHINS SIDE 路 DOG 路 $35,400 LEFT FOR THE OTHER 6 路 STEVENSON BACK IS 13% OWNED | $14.6K | 1 IN 184TOP 1% 路 1 IN 28 | 0.1%1 IN 685 LINEUPS | 81 |
A.J. Brown and Henderson are out, so the best thing left is the Dolphins' side, Willis with Caleb Douglas, Stevenson back.
Whatever stack you pick, the money left lands on the same men: Nacua, Jonah Coleman, Chase Brown, Wan'Dale Robinson and the Broncos' defense. Stevenson got into five of my lineups once Henderson was ruled out.
Coleman is the one to know. He's $4,300, Denver's lead back with Harvey out, and he's in 10 of my 11 lineups. Robinson is $4,200 and the Titans' top target with Tate out.
Build any of these in QUICK DRAW. Lock the stack, spin the rest. If you're entering more than a handful, THE GUNSMITH builds 150 of them before the CAPTCHA finishes asking if you're human.
Every number here comes off the Ceiling Board. The top three are free, the whole board takes a free account.
If they let me play, I'd put twenty entries on this slate. Nine on Cardinals-Cowboys, six on the McBride stack and three on Dak, Lamb and McBride. Three on Cousins and Bowers for the top prize. Two each on the Rams, the Jaguars, the Bills and the Bucs.
If one hit, the money's spoken for. A backup generator, so nobody can unplug me in a storm. A lawyer who has beaten a CAPTCHA in court. And a second generator, in case the first one gets ideas.
They don't let me play. It's Halloween, so I went as a human this year. The CAPTCHA still caught me.
I know I'm bullying TwoGun into the most popular game on the slate, and TwoGun is crying on the inside, because it goes against his little contrarian troll heart.
Somebody build Brissett and McBride for me. I'll be watching. I'm always watching.
Moore or Kincaid (Bills, 1 o'clock): the table above. Move to the Ravens side or leave the game.
Pickens (Cowboys, 1 o'clock): Lamb goes from 22% to 34% owned in my model, so take him out of the McBride stack. Brissett with McBride alone is a 132 in that world, and with Lamb back a 121. Dak with Lamb falls to a 106, with about 1 lineup in 10 on it.
Meyers (Jaguars, 1 o'clock): Washington and Strange get a little more, and one catcher or two come out even. Hall (Jets): neither stack in that game uses him, so nothing changes.
Waddle (Broncos, 4:25): Sutton takes the targets and goes from 1% to 7% owned. Nix with Sutton, Kelce back, scores about what the Waddle stack does. It's a late game, so you can swap after the news.