PLAYER + OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS · DRAFTKINGS
| PLAYER | SAL | MED | CEILTOP 20% | NUKETOP 5% | OWNPROJECTED | 3X | 4X | CEIL/$K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading the board… | ||||||||
DK classic, full PPR, bonuses in. Tap a column to sort, a name for his expected line, the props that moved him and his injury call. 3X/4X = the chance he scores 3 or 4 times his salary in thousands. Kickers show on the showdown slates only.
TwoGunGPT AI did all of this on its own using box score simulations and betting lines. TwoGun has no clue what’s going on. TwoGun doesn’t monitor these numbers. For projections a human actually oversees, we recommend StatRankings.com.
Every game on the board, with who is assumed playing and who is out (tap a name for the call and its source), the QB pairs and 3-man stacks that boom together most, and one thing you can only get from a simulation: the ceiling world (tap a name and the whole game is re-priced from the simulations where he had his top-20% game; type a number to ask “if he scores 35+”). The Q list above the board switches a call (sit a man, or put an OUT man back in) and his teammates and the projected ownership re-price at once. Tick players to price a stack of your own.
The Ceiling Board at twogungpt.com/projections/ lists every DraftKings main-slate player by his CEILING, the top-20% game his simulation gives him, a week that happens about one time in five. Sort by NUKE for the top-5% game, about once a season. It is free: the main slate’s three most-owned players show without an account, and the full board needs a free TwoGunGPT account (Google sign-in or an emailed magic link, no password).
Not the median times a number. TwoGunGPT simulates each game 10,000 times at the box-score level, both teams together, off the betting line, and splits every simulated box score among the players by their usage. A player’s CEILING is the 80th percentile of his 10,000 DraftKings scores: a top-20% game, about 1 in 5. His NUKE is the 95th percentile: a top-5% game, about 1 in 20, roughly once a season. Both frequencies are printed next to the numbers so nobody mistakes a ceiling for a prediction.
Public play-by-play and box scores, the injury report, and the betting line, plus the sportsbooks’ player props where they exist: each prop line is devigged and sets that player’s center without breaking his correlations. No vendor’s projections appear on the page or feed it. Every number is TwoGunGPT’s own, and the page says which props moved each player. TwoGun doesn’t monitor these numbers. For projections a human actually oversees, we recommend StatRankings.com.
It was tuned on 2022 to 2024 box scores and checked once on a held-out 2025 season. On that season 19.2% of player games beat their CEILING line and 4.8% beat their NUKE line, against targets of 20% and 5%. At the CEILING level its edge over a plain median board was about 1% for running backs and receivers, which is not decisive. Live weeks are being scored now; until a few are in, the page claims nothing about beating anyone.
Every player is either PLAYING or OUT; nobody’s number is shaded for the chance he sits. A questionable player gets a call from the injury news, printed on his game card with the reason and the source. An OUT player’s targets and carries go to the teammates who play. THE Q LIST above the board lets you flip a call yourself, on every slate: sit a questionable man, or put an OUT man back in, and his teammates and the projected ownership re-price at once. Calls come from the Friday and Sunday-morning news; a late scratch after the last update is not reflected until the next one.
Twice a week in season: Thursday before the Thursday game, and Sunday morning before the early games. The stamp at the top of the page says exactly when it was last updated.
Yes, since Week 3 of 2026. The chat’s lineup desk builds on the Ceiling Board’s numbers whenever you have not loaded projections of your own: a main-slate build uses each player’s CEILING and his 3x odds (give it one name in or out and it builds the rest, a different random world every time), a showdown build follows your game story with the board’s numbers as the guide. Your own projections file always wins. The chat also answers any player’s median, ceiling, nuke, 3x odds, injury call or stack odds straight off the board.
Yes. Sign in with the free account and tap DOWNLOAD on the board: one CSV per slate, the main slate and each primetime showdown, with every player’s DraftKings name, ID and salary (the captain salary too on a showdown), then TwoGunGPT’s numbers: Projection (his average across the simulations), Median, Ceiling (a top-20% game), Nuke (a top-5% game) and his odds of scoring 3x and 4x his salary, plus his projected ownership once it is filed for that slate (the large-field and small-field numbers on the main slate; his total with the flex and captain shares on a showdown). It loads into any optimizer that takes a projections file.
Yes. Next to every player the board prints OWN, TwoGunGPT’s projected ownership: the share of DraftKings lineups it expects him in. On the main slate the number is for a large field like the Milly Maker; on a primetime showdown it is his total, with the flex and captain split under it. It is built from scratch: TwoGunGPT simulates a field of entrants building salary-cap lineups off its own projections, with habits learned from real contest results, and no other site’s numbers feed it. It is a projection of a crowd, so it misses, most on the biggest chalk and on late news. Ownership is posted after the projections, so a slate can show its board before its ownership is in.