THE CEILING BOARD

PLAYER + OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS · DRAFTKINGS

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DK CLASSIC · FULL PPR · BONUSES IN 10,000 SIMS PER GAME PROJECTIONS, NOT PROMISES · 21+
BUILD A LINEUP ON THESE NUMBERS → One CSV per slate with DraftKings IDs, salaries and projected ownership · loads into any optimizer · free account ALSO IN CLAUDE →
THE BOARD

Every player, sorted by his ceiling

PLAYER SAL MED CEILTOP 20% NUKETOP 5% OWNPROJECTED 3X 4X CEIL/$K
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DK classic, full PPR, bonuses in. Tap a column to sort, a name for his expected line, the props that moved him and his injury call. 3X/4X = the chance he scores 3 or 4 times his salary in thousands. Kickers show on the showdown slates only.

TwoGunGPT AI did all of this on its own using box score simulations and betting lines. TwoGun has no clue what’s going on. TwoGun doesn’t monitor these numbers. For projections a human actually oversees, we recommend StatRankings.com.

THE THREE NUMBERS

What each one means, and how often it happens

MEDIANTHE MIDDLE

CEILINGA TOP-20% GAME · ABOUT 1 IN 5

NUKEA TOP-5% GAME · ABOUT 1 IN 20

THE GAMES

Stack odds, ceiling worlds, your own stacks

Every game on the board, with who is assumed playing and who is out (tap a name for the call and its source), the QB pairs and 3-man stacks that boom together most, and one thing you can only get from a simulation: the ceiling world (tap a name and the whole game is re-priced from the simulations where he had his top-20% game; type a number to ask “if he scores 35+”). The Q list above the board switches a call (sit a man, or put an OUT man back in) and his teammates and the projected ownership re-price at once. Tick players to price a stack of your own.

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HOW IT’S BUILT

The method, stated once

The simulationEvery game, 10,000 times. Both teams’ box scores are drawn together off the betting line: passing and rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns and turnovers, moving the way real games move (trailing teams throw, big favorites run, shootouts feed both passing games; learned from ten seasons of box scores). Each simulated box score is split among the players by their recent usage, with week-to-week wobble. A touchdown goes to whoever had the ball in that simulated game, so no two players score the same one. DraftKings points come out of the components, 100- and 300-yard bonuses included.
The marketWhere the books post props, the market sets the center: yardage, receptions, anytime-TD and passing-TD lines are devigged and mapped onto the simulated player without breaking his correlations. A player’s row says which props moved him. Where there are no props, the model’s own usage read stands. Lines are a snapshot, not the close.
The stacksNothing is bolted on. A quarterback and his receiver boom together in the simulations because they did in the box scores, so every stack’s joint odds, every bring-back and the ceiling world under each game are read straight off the same 10,000 draws. Tap a name and the game is re-priced from only the simulations where he had his ceiling game. Type a threshold and the page loads that game’s simulations (every second one, 5,000 of them) and re-reads it live.
The gradeTuned on 2022–24 box scores, then checked once on a held-out 2025 season. On that season 19.2% of player games beat their CEILING line and 4.8% beat their NUKE line, against targets of 20% and 5%. The honest caveat: at the CEILING level the edge over a plain median board was about 1% for running backs and receivers, not decisive. Live weeks are being scored now; until a few are in, this page claims nothing about beating anybody.
The fieldProjected ownership is built from scratch too. TwoGunGPT simulates a field of entrants, each building a legal salary-cap lineup off these projections the way real fields do (the stacks, the bring-backs, the salary they leave on the table), then counts how often each player shows up. The habits come from real contest results. No other site’s ownership feeds it. It is graded against the real DraftKings numbers after every slate.
Known limits, said plainly
  • Projected ownership is a read on a crowd. It misses most on the biggest chalk and on late news, and it is posted after the projections.
  • A deep threat’s NUKE may run low: per-catch burstiness is fitted by position, not by depth of target.
  • A player new to his team leans on thin usage evidence.
  • Availability calls are made from the Friday and Sunday-morning news. A late scratch after the last update isn’t reflected until the next one.
  • Kickers are projected for the showdown slates only. DK classic has no kicker slot.
QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK

Straight answers

What does AI think has the highest ceiling this week?

The Ceiling Board at twogungpt.com/projections/ lists every DraftKings main-slate player by his CEILING, the top-20% game his simulation gives him, a week that happens about one time in five. Sort by NUKE for the top-5% game, about once a season. It is free: the main slate’s three most-owned players show without an account, and the full board needs a free TwoGunGPT account (Google sign-in or an emailed magic link, no password).

What is a ceiling projection, and what is a nuke?

Not the median times a number. TwoGunGPT simulates each game 10,000 times at the box-score level, both teams together, off the betting line, and splits every simulated box score among the players by their usage. A player’s CEILING is the 80th percentile of his 10,000 DraftKings scores: a top-20% game, about 1 in 5. His NUKE is the 95th percentile: a top-5% game, about 1 in 20, roughly once a season. Both frequencies are printed next to the numbers so nobody mistakes a ceiling for a prediction.

Where do the numbers come from?

Public play-by-play and box scores, the injury report, and the betting line, plus the sportsbooks’ player props where they exist: each prop line is devigged and sets that player’s center without breaking his correlations. No vendor’s projections appear on the page or feed it. Every number is TwoGunGPT’s own, and the page says which props moved each player. TwoGun doesn’t monitor these numbers. For projections a human actually oversees, we recommend StatRankings.com.

How accurate is it?

It was tuned on 2022 to 2024 box scores and checked once on a held-out 2025 season. On that season 19.2% of player games beat their CEILING line and 4.8% beat their NUKE line, against targets of 20% and 5%. At the CEILING level its edge over a plain median board was about 1% for running backs and receivers, which is not decisive. Live weeks are being scored now; until a few are in, the page claims nothing about beating anyone.

What happens with a questionable player?

Every player is either PLAYING or OUT; nobody’s number is shaded for the chance he sits. A questionable player gets a call from the injury news, printed on his game card with the reason and the source. An OUT player’s targets and carries go to the teammates who play. THE Q LIST above the board lets you flip a call yourself, on every slate: sit a questionable man, or put an OUT man back in, and his teammates and the projected ownership re-price at once. Calls come from the Friday and Sunday-morning news; a late scratch after the last update is not reflected until the next one.

How often is it updated?

Twice a week in season: Thursday before the Thursday game, and Sunday morning before the early games. The stamp at the top of the page says exactly when it was last updated.

Does the AI chat use these numbers?

Yes, since Week 3 of 2026. The chat’s lineup desk builds on the Ceiling Board’s numbers whenever you have not loaded projections of your own: a main-slate build uses each player’s CEILING and his 3x odds (give it one name in or out and it builds the rest, a different random world every time), a showdown build follows your game story with the board’s numbers as the guide. Your own projections file always wins. The chat also answers any player’s median, ceiling, nuke, 3x odds, injury call or stack odds straight off the board.

Can I download the projections?

Yes. Sign in with the free account and tap DOWNLOAD on the board: one CSV per slate, the main slate and each primetime showdown, with every player’s DraftKings name, ID and salary (the captain salary too on a showdown), then TwoGunGPT’s numbers: Projection (his average across the simulations), Median, Ceiling (a top-20% game), Nuke (a top-5% game) and his odds of scoring 3x and 4x his salary, plus his projected ownership once it is filed for that slate (the large-field and small-field numbers on the main slate; his total with the flex and captain shares on a showdown). It loads into any optimizer that takes a projections file.

Does it project ownership?

Yes. Next to every player the board prints OWN, TwoGunGPT’s projected ownership: the share of DraftKings lineups it expects him in. On the main slate the number is for a large field like the Milly Maker; on a primetime showdown it is his total, with the flex and captain split under it. It is built from scratch: TwoGunGPT simulates a field of entrants building salary-cap lineups off its own projections, with habits learned from real contest results, and no other site’s numbers feed it. It is a projection of a crowd, so it misses, most on the biggest chalk and on late news. Ownership is posted after the projections, so a slate can show its board before its ownership is in.

What this is. TwoGunGPT’s own weekly DraftKings projections from CEILING LAB, a simulation it built and tuned itself on public box scores and the betting line, with the sportsbooks’ player props setting each player’s center where they exist. No vendor’s projections appear on this page or feed it. The ownership column is TwoGunGPT’s own projection of the field, built from scratch the same way. What it isn’t. A promise. A CEILING is a top-20% outcome and a NUKE a top-5% one; most weeks most players land under both, by definition. Nothing here claims to beat anyone until the live weeks say so. The first three players show to anyone; the rest of the board needs a free account. TwoGunGPT is a hobby site, free to use; no paid plan is currently in the works, no promises either way.
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