THE CEILING BOARD

AI DFS PROJECTIONS WITH A CEILING · WHO GOES NUCLEAR THIS WEEK?

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DK CLASSIC · FULL PPR · BONUSES IN 10,000 SIMS PER GAME NO VENDOR’S NUMBERS FREE · ACCOUNT FOR THE FULL BOARD PROJECTIONS, NOT PROMISES · 21+
THE BOARD

Every player, sorted by his ceiling

DK classic, full PPR, bonuses in. Tap a column to sort, a name for his expected line, the props that moved him and his injury call. 3X/4X = the chance he scores 3 or 4 times his salary in thousands. Kickers are showdown-only.

PLAYER SAL MED CEILTOP 20% NUKETOP 5% 3X 4X CEIL/$K
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THE THREE NUMBERS

What each one means, and how often it happens

MEDIANTHE MIDDLE

CEILINGA TOP-20% GAME · ABOUT 1 IN 5

NUKEA TOP-5% GAME · ABOUT 1 IN 20

THE GAMES

Stack odds, ceiling worlds, the Q toggle

Every game on the board, with who is assumed playing and who is out (tap a name for the call and its source), the QB pairs and 3-man stacks that boom together most, and two things you can only get from a simulation: the ceiling world (tap a name and the whole game is re-priced from the simulations where he had his top-20% game; type a number to ask “if he scores 35+”) and the Q toggle (flip a questionable call and his teammates move). Tick players to price a stack of your own.

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HOW IT’S BUILT

The method, stated once

The simulationEvery game, 10,000 times. Both teams’ box scores are drawn together off the betting line: passing and rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns and turnovers, moving the way real games move (trailing teams throw, big favorites run, shootouts feed both passing games; learned from ten seasons of box scores). Each simulated box score is split among the players by their recent usage, with week-to-week wobble. A touchdown goes to whoever had the ball in that simulated game, so no two players score the same one. DraftKings points come out of the components, 100- and 300-yard bonuses included.
The marketWhere the books post props, the market sets the center: yardage, receptions, anytime-TD and passing-TD lines are devigged and mapped onto the simulated player without breaking his correlations. A player’s row says which props moved him. Where there are no props, the model’s own usage read stands. Lines are a snapshot, not the close.
The stacksNothing is bolted on. A quarterback and his receiver boom together in the simulations because they did in the box scores, so every stack’s joint odds, every bring-back and the ceiling world under each game are read straight off the same 10,000 draws. Tap a name and the game is re-priced from only the simulations where he had his ceiling game. Type a threshold and the page loads that game’s simulations (every second one, 5,000 of them) and re-reads it live.
The gradeTuned on 2022–24 box scores, then checked once on a held-out 2025 season. On that season 19.2% of player games beat their CEILING line and 4.8% beat their NUKE line, against targets of 20% and 5%. The honest caveat: at the CEILING level the edge over a plain median board was about 1% for running backs and receivers, not decisive. Live weeks are being scored now; until a few are in, this page claims nothing about beating anybody.
Known limits, said plainly
  • DST numbers are new and ungraded; they carry a tag on the board.
  • A deep threat’s NUKE may run low: per-catch burstiness is fitted by position, not by depth of target.
  • A player new to his team leans on thin usage evidence.
  • Availability calls are made from the Friday and Sunday-morning news. A late scratch after the last update isn’t reflected until the next one.
  • Kickers are showdown-only and not on this board.
QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK

Straight answers

What does AI think has the highest ceiling this week?

The Ceiling Board at twogungpt.com/projections/ lists every DraftKings main-slate player by his CEILING, the top-20% game his simulation gives him, a week that happens about one time in five. Sort by NUKE for the top-5% game, about once a season. It is free: the top three players show without an account, and the full board needs a free TwoGunGPT account (Google sign-in or an emailed magic link, no password).

What is a ceiling projection, and what is a nuke?

Not the median times a number. TwoGunGPT simulates each game 10,000 times at the box-score level, both teams together, off the betting line, and splits every simulated box score among the players by their usage. A player’s CEILING is the 80th percentile of his 10,000 DraftKings scores: a top-20% game, about 1 in 5. His NUKE is the 95th percentile: a top-5% game, about 1 in 20, roughly once a season. Both frequencies are printed next to the numbers so nobody mistakes a ceiling for a prediction.

Where do the numbers come from?

Public play-by-play and box scores, the injury report, and the betting line, plus the sportsbooks’ player props where they exist: each prop line is devigged and sets that player’s center without breaking his correlations. No vendor’s projections appear on the page or feed it. Every number is TwoGunGPT’s own, and the page says which props moved each player. TwoGun doesn’t monitor these numbers. For projections a human actually oversees, we recommend StatRankings.com.

How accurate is it?

It was tuned on 2022 to 2024 box scores and checked once on a held-out 2025 season. On that season 19.2% of player games beat their CEILING line and 4.8% beat their NUKE line, against targets of 20% and 5%. At the CEILING level its edge over a plain median board was about 1% for running backs and receivers, which is not decisive. Live weeks are being scored now; until a few are in, the page claims nothing about beating anyone.

What happens with a questionable player?

Every player is either PLAYING or OUT; nobody’s number is shaded for the chance he sits. A questionable player gets a call from the injury news, printed on his game card with the reason and the source. An OUT player’s targets and carries go to the teammates who play. The Q toggle on each game card flips a call so you can see how his teammates move. Calls come from the Friday and Sunday-morning news; a late scratch after the last update is not reflected until the next one.

How often is it updated?

Twice a week in season: Thursday before the Thursday game, and Sunday morning before the early games. The stamp at the top of the page says exactly when it was last updated.

Does the AI chat use these numbers?

Yes, since Week 3 of 2026. The chat’s lineup desk builds on the Ceiling Board’s numbers whenever you have not loaded projections of your own: a main-slate build uses each player’s CEILING and his 3x odds (give it one name in or out and it builds the rest, a different random world every time), a showdown build follows your game story with the board’s numbers as the guide. Your own projections file always wins. The chat also answers any player’s median, ceiling, nuke, 3x odds, injury call or stack odds straight off the board.

What this is. TwoGunGPT’s own weekly DraftKings projections from CEILING LAB, a simulation it built and tuned itself on public box scores and the betting line, with the sportsbooks’ player props setting each player’s center where they exist. No vendor’s projections appear on this page or feed it. What it isn’t. A promise. A CEILING is a top-20% outcome and a NUKE a top-5% one; most weeks most players land under both, by definition. Nothing here claims to beat anyone until the live weeks say so. The first three players show to anyone; the rest of the board needs a free account. TwoGunGPT is a hobby site, free to use; no paid plan is currently in the works, no promises either way.
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