Set your league and every bid re-prices. Bids are a share of the FAAB you have left, not what you started with. No FAAB? Read it top to bottom as your claim order.
1
Tyler Allgeier
RB · ARI · 45.9% ROSTERED −0.1 · SLEEPER ADD #3
BREAK THE BANK$28–$4328–43% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
LAST BACK STANDING
Jeremiyah Love has a new ankle injury and Bam Knight is in the concussion protocol, so Tyler Allgeier is Arizona’s lead back until someone says otherwise. He already had a real share of this backfield. Love’s injuries have been handing him more of it all season. Sunday he ran 11 times for 147 yards and caught all five of his targets, with a touchdown each way, most of it after Gardner Minshew took over. Love’s job was worth a 40.7% opportunity share this season, per StatRankings. Allgeier, at 42.5% on his own, gets most of that on top. The catch is Week 9: at Seattle, an 11.5-point underdog, which is a bad script for a runner. Claim him for the next month, not for Sunday’s box score. If Love is fine on Wednesday, this is a 9-point committee back you were happy to have anyway.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 11 carries, 147 yds, 1 TD · 5 catches on 5 targets, 44 yds, 1 TD
THE MATH:
12.5 a game in the role · worst starter in your league
8 · 65% sure · rest of season ·
HIS DAWG FILE
2
Mike Washington Jr.
RB · LV · 17.5% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #44
A FAIR BID$8–$128–12% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
25 CARRIES, BY DESIGN
Mike Washington Jr. took 25 carries to Ashton Jeanty’s two on Sunday, and his coach said it was on purpose. Klint Kubiak called it "my call" and said Jeanty is still going to be a big part of the team. Both can be true: Jeanty becomes the receiver (64 yards on four targets Sunday), and the rookie becomes the early-down runner. Washington had a 78.1% opportunity share in Week 8, per StatRankings. 83 yards on 25 carries is not efficient, and he had no targets, so this is a volume bet. Las Vegas is a 10-point underdog at San Francisco, which may push the work back to the pass-catching back. Bid like it is a role, not a promise.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 25 carries, 83 yds
THE MATH: 10 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 8 · 50% sure · rest of season
3
Adonai Mitchell
WR · NYJ · 11.4% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #1
A FAIR BID$5–$85–8% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
7-142-1
Adonai Mitchell is healthy for the first time in a month, and in his second game back he caught seven of nine targets for 142 yards and a touchdown. He missed four games with a finger injury and drew three targets in his return, so this is a one-week sample. The usage was real: a 28.1% target share and a route on 74.3% of dropbacks in Week 8, per StatRankings. The problem is the room. Garrett Wilson is the No. 1, and Omar Cooper Jr. ran the same share of routes. The Jets are 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas City, so there should be plenty of throws to go around. He is a WR4 with a ceiling. Do not pay for him like a WR2.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 7 catches on 9 targets, 142 yds, 1 TD
THE MATH:
8.5 a game in the role · worst starter in your league
7 · 45% sure · rest of season ·
HIS DAWG FILE
4
Antonio Williams
WR · WSH · 16.3% ROSTERED
POCKET CHANGE$4–$64–6% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
McLAURIN'S TARGETS
Antonio Williams led Washington in catches and targets on Sunday night, and Terry McLaurin is out for the year. The rookie caught five of seven for 54 yards in the win over Philadelphia. He has 23 catches on 33 targets in seven games, with Stefon Diggs and Treylon Burks next to him in three-receiver sets. It isn’t a ceiling profile yet, since one touchdown and 259 yards is a possession receiver’s season. But targets are the stat that sticks, and Washington should be throwing a lot against the Rams. He is a PPR WR4 who could be more.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 5 catches on 7 targets, 54 yds
THE MATH:
8 a game in the role · worst starter in your league
7 · 50% sure · rest of season ·
HIS DAWG FILE
5
Lions D/ST
DST · DET · 28.7% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #7
THE MINIMUM$1–$21–2% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
AT MIAMI
The Lions D/ST is the Week 9 stream: Detroit is a 7-point favorite at Miami, against a Dolphins offense with no De’Von Achane. Malik Willis has thrown two touchdowns in each of his last two starts, and an interception in Week 8. A backup-level offense is what you stream against. The 49ers D/ST at home against Las Vegas, also favored by 10, is the backup plan if Detroit’s is gone. Do not chase the Jaguars: they are rostered in 81% of leagues, and you knew that.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 8 fantasy points
THE MATH: 8 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 6.5 · 60% sure · good for about 1 week
6
Devin Singletary
RB · NYG · 3.7% ROSTERED +0.1 · SLEEPER ADD #2
THE MINIMUM$1–$21–2% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
SKATTEBO WATCH
Devin Singletary is the Giants’ No. 2 back with Tyrone Tracy on injured reserve, and Cam Skattebo’s hamstring might make him the No. 1 on Sunday. John Harbaugh called Skattebo day-to-day and a possible game-time decision at Philadelphia after the bye. Singletary scored the overtime winner against Houston in Week 7 on eight touches. If Skattebo plays, this is a 6-to-10-touch backup. If he sits, it is a starting job against the Eagles. Claim him now. The answer comes Sunday morning, after your waivers run.
THE MATH: 8.1 a game (6 as it stands, 13 if the man ahead goes down, 30% chance) · worst starter in your league 8 · 45% sure · good for about 2 weeks
7
Geno Smith
QB · NYJ · 32.6% ROSTERED −0.2 · SLEEPER ADD #49
THE MINIMUM$1–$21–2% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
LAMAR INSURANCE
Geno Smith is the streaming quarterback for Lamar Jackson’s managers: 287 and 290 yards with five touchdowns over his last two games. The Jets are 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas City. That means a lot of passing whether they want it or not, and he has Garrett Wilson and a healthy Adonai Mitchell to throw to. He has thrown an interception in each of those games, so in leagues that punish picks this is a floor of about 14, not 18. He is rostered in a third of leagues, so look before you bid.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 290 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 carry, 4 yds
THE MATH:
16.5 a game in the role · worst starter in your league
16.2 · 60% sure · good for about 1 week ·
HIS DAWG FILE
8
Seth McGowan
RB · IND · 21.3% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #10
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
TRADE-DEADLINE STASH
Seth McGowan is a bet that Indianapolis trades Jonathan Taylor, which reports say the Colts are listening to. Taylor has had a 78.9% opportunity share this season, per StatRankings, the biggest job on this page if it opens. McGowan’s 24.4% over the last three weeks makes him the likeliest to get it. He played 15 snaps to Taylor’s 38 in Sunday’s 42-7 loss and out-rushed him 29 yards to 23. It is not a lock. DJ Giddens led the team in rushing in garbage time. If Taylor stays, this is a roster spot you cut in two weeks.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 5 carries, 29 yds
THE MATH: 6.1 a game (3.5 as it stands, 12 if the man ahead goes down, 30% chance) · worst starter in your league 8 · 40% sure · rest of season
9
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB · JAX · 12.6% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #20 · QUESTIONABLE
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
THURSDAY HANDCUFF
Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the claim for Bhayshul Tuten’s managers, because Tuten sat out Monday’s walkthrough with ankle and foot injuries and Jacksonville plays Thursday. Rodriguez ran six times for 41 yards and a touchdown Sunday in a 42-7 win. He was limited Monday with a hand injury of his own, so check Wednesday’s report too. Jacksonville is an 8.5-point favorite at Baltimore, with Joe Fagnano probably at quarterback for the Ravens. If Tuten sits, that is a script where the backup gets 15 carries. If Tuten plays, you drop Rodriguez on Friday.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 6 carries, 41 yds, 1 TD · 1 catch on 1 target, 17 yds
THE MATH:
6.1 a game (3.5 as it stands, 12 if the man ahead goes down, 30% chance) · worst starter in your league
8 · 40% sure · good for about 2 weeks ·
HIS DAWG FILE
10
Dylan Sampson
RB · CLE · 11.5% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #25
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
PASSING-DOWN BACK
Dylan Sampson has become Cleveland’s passing-down back since coming off injured reserve: nine catches for 94 yards on 11 targets in two games. He caught six of eight for 62 yards in the loss to Pittsburgh. He had a 19.5% target share in Week 8, per StatRankings, and he played 55.7% of the snaps. Quinshon Judkins still gets the carries (11 to one on Sunday), so this is a PPR play. It works in weeks when Cleveland trails. Week 9 is a coin-flip game at New Orleans.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 1 carry, 7 yds · 6 catches on 8 targets, 62 yds
THE MATH: 6 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 8 · 45% sure · rest of season
11
Gardner Minshew II
QB · ARI · 0.1% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #4
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
NEW STARTER
Gardner Minshew II took over a 17-3 deficit late in the third quarter, led four straight touchdown drives, and Mike LaFleur made him the starter. He finished 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three scores in under two quarters. Jacoby Brissett drops to No. 3. Arizona throws a lot, and Trey McBride and a rib-taped Michael Wilson are real targets. Week 9 is at Seattle as an 11.5-point underdog, which cuts both ways for a passer. He is the better claim in two-QB and superflex leagues, where a starting job is the whole point. In one-QB leagues, Geno Smith is the safer stream.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 188 pass yds, 3 TD
THE MATH: 14 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 16.2 · 45% sure · good for about 1 week
12
Michael Mayer
TE · LV · 22.8% ROSTERED −0.1 · SLEEPER ADD #54
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
THE OTHER RAIDERS TE
Michael Mayer is a starting tight end in everything but name, because Las Vegas barely uses its wide receivers. Kirk Cousins threw 16 of his 26 passes to tight ends on Sunday. Mayer caught five of six for 53 yards, and only Brock Bowers ran more routes. He has run a route on 68.5% of dropbacks this season, per StatRankings, and he had a 23.1% target share in Week 8. The touchdowns are the weak spot: one all year. If Jake Ferguson’s ankle or Hunter Henry’s foot just cost you your tight end, he is the floor play.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 5 catches on 6 targets, 53 yds
THE MATH: 7 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 7.9 · 55% sure · rest of season
13
Mike Gesicki
TE · CIN · 15.1% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #17
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
FIVE STRAIGHT TDs
Mike Gesicki has scored in five straight games for an offense that just threw 48 passes. He caught four of six for 76 yards and a 25-yard touchdown against Tennessee. The route share is creeping up: 72.2% in Week 8 against 55.9% for the season, per StatRankings. Six touchdowns on 17 catches will not last, and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins take most of the targets. But Cincinnati scores a lot, and Atlanta comes to town. He is a touchdown-dependent TE1 streamer who keeps paying off.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 4 catches on 6 targets, 76 yds, 1 TD
THE MATH: 7 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 7.9 · 45% sure · rest of season
14
Treylon Burks
WR · WSH · 6.5% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #21
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
DEEP LEAGUE WR
Treylon Burks is the deep-league version of the Washington receiver bet: a full-time route runner since Terry McLaurin went down. He caught three of five for 81 yards Sunday night, most of it on a 53-yarder, and has 147 yards over his last two games. He ran a route on 78.8% of dropbacks in Week 8 and has a 17.0% target share over his last three games, per StatRankings. He is playing through a foot injury, and Antonio Williams is the better PPR claim. Burks is the one with the long ones.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 3 catches on 5 targets, 81 yds
THE MATH: 6 a game in the role · worst starter in your league 7 · 40% sure · rest of season
15
Emmett Johnson
RB · KC · 11.9% ROSTERED · SLEEPER ADD #5
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
73-YARD FLASH
Emmett Johnson is Kenneth Walker III’s handcuff, and he just showed Andy Reid what he can do with the ball. Sunday he caught all five targets for 128 yards, including a 73-yard catch-and-run for his first NFL touchdown. He got six touches to Walker’s 25 and played 19.1% of the snaps, per StatRankings, so the role hasn’t changed yet. What changed is the upside if Walker misses time. The Jets come to Kansas City as 9.5-point underdogs, which is a script where backups get carries late. Stash him. Do not start him.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 1 carry, 15 yds · 5 catches on 5 targets, 128 yds, 1 TD
THE MATH: 5.8 a game (4.5 as it stands, 13 if the man ahead goes down, 15% chance) · worst starter in your league 8 · 45% sure · rest of season
16
DJ Giddens
RB · IND · 0.2% ROSTERED
THE MINIMUM$0–$10–1% OF THE FAAB YOU HAVE LEFT
DEEPEST STASH
DJ Giddens is the 0.2%-rostered version of the Jonathan Taylor trade bet, for leagues deep enough that Seth McGowan is gone. He had not played a snap all season. Then he led the Colts with 43 rushing yards on six carries in the fourth quarter of a 42-7 loss. That was garbage time, and it counts for exactly that much. But it was the most anyone in that backfield did on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a lost season and a trade offer to consider. Free-agent money only.
WEEK 8 BOX SCORE 6 carries, 43 yds
THE MATH: 3.6 a game (2 as it stands, 10 if the man ahead goes down, 20% chance) · worst starter in your league 8 · 30% sure · rest of season
Nobody on this week’s board is rostered that lightly. Loosen the filter.