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Should I draft Ja'Marr Chase or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? (PPR)
The verdict
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
88%confident
The market still pays for Chase's 2024. JSN is selling his 2025. Buy the newer season.
Identical projections — 16.1 apiece — identical dog scores at 7. The tiebreaker is what actually happened last year: JSN 17.7 a game, Chase 15.7.
The projection trimming JSN off a season like that is exactly the disrespect I bill hourly to avenge. Two years younger, two picks later. 88%.
↻ Re-roll — Chase's pedigree argues back loudly.
Ja'Marr Chase WR
CIN · Bye 6 · Age 26
ADP
4.0 · WR2
TwoGun Board
WR3 · #27
Dog
7 /10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR
SEA · Bye 11 · Age 24
ADP
6.0 · WR3
TwoGun Board
WR2 · #26
Dog
7 /10
| Ja'Marr Chase | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | • fair price | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 15.7 | 17.7 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 262.5 | 263.2 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 16.1 | 16.1 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 94% | 77% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 7 / 10 | 7 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Puka Nacua or Ja'Marr Chase? · Puka Nacua or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? · Ja'Marr Chase or Amon-Ra St. Brown?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT