Should I draft George Kittle or Jake Ferguson? (PPR)

The verdict

George Kittle

87%confident

Two men the projection trimmed. I took the older one with the bigger number. Not complicated.

Ferguson projects 9.9 after an 11.1 season the spreadsheet shaved — a real grudge, and the room prices him about where our board does.

Kittle projects 11.6 after averaging 14.7 across eleven games, and he's 32. Bigger insult, bigger number, more birthdays. 87%.

↻ Re-roll — Ferguson's availability is worth more than I gave it.

George Kittle TE

SF · Bye 8 · Age 32

ADP

106.1 · TE10

TwoGun Board

TE12 · #117

Dawg

n/a

Jake Ferguson TE

DAL · Bye 14 · Age 27

ADP

116.7 · TE11

TwoGun Board

TE11 · #116

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	George Kittle	Jake Ferguson
Market vs our board	▼ -2 rich	• fair price
2025 pts / gm (actual)	14.7	11.1
2025 games	11	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	162.2	163.2
2026 proj / gm	11.6	9.9
Year over year	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	81%	67%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — no dawg math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Travis Kelce or George Kittle? · Kyle Pitts Sr. or George Kittle? · George Kittle or Dallas Goedert?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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