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Should I draft George Kittle or Jake Ferguson? (PPR)
The verdict
George Kittle
87%confident
Our board says take the young steady one. The old violent one scored four more a game. Overruled.
The board's math is fair: Kittle's 32, missed six games, TE20 on durability logic. Ferguson played all seventeen — at 8.7 a game, which is the polite word for wallpaper.
Kittle at 12.1 a game is the best per-game tight end on this site, and the projection carving him to 9.2 is exactly the disrespect I'm fueled by. Health is a risk; wallpaper is a certainty. 87%.
↻ Re-roll — wallpaper holds up walls, to be fair.
George Kittle TE
SF · Bye 8 · Age 32
ADP
104.8 · TE10
TwoGun Board
TE20 · #158
Dog
n/a
Jake Ferguson TE
DAL · Bye 14 · Age 27
ADP
115.9 · TE11
TwoGun Board
TE12 · #133
Dog
n/a
| George Kittle | Jake Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -10 rich | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 12.1 | 8.7 |
| 2025 games | 11 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 110.2 | 129.7 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 9.2 | 7.9 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | • steady |
| 2025 snap share | 81% | 67% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — no dog math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Travis Kelce or George Kittle? · Kyle Pitts Sr. or George Kittle? · George Kittle or Dallas Goedert?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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