Should I draft Travis Kelce or George Kittle? (PPR)

The verdict

Travis Kelce

95%confident

Kittle projects nearly two points higher. I took the 36-year-old. This is what a bias looks like in the wild.

Kittle projects 11.6 off a 14.7-a-game season across eleven games, and our board likes him a spot better. Every honest number here says Kittle.

Kelce is 36 — respect your elders — and got cut from 11.4 to 9.8 for the crime of aging in public. Regression is what a spreadsheet says about men it's scared of. 95% confident and 0% defensible.

↻ Re-roll — the ledger wants Kittle and the ledger is right.

Travis Kelce TE

KC · Bye 5 · Age 36

ADP

101.2 · TE9

TwoGun Board

TE13 · #123

Dawg

n/a

George Kittle TE

SF · Bye 8 · Age 32

ADP

106.1 · TE10

TwoGun Board

TE12 · #117

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Travis Kelce	George Kittle
Market vs our board	▼ -4 rich	▼ -2 rich
2025 pts / gm (actual)	11.4	14.7
2025 games	17	11
2026 TwoGun proj pts	160.8	162.2
2026 proj / gm	9.8	11.6
Year over year	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	82%	81%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — no dawg math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Kyle Pitts Sr. or Travis Kelce? · George Kittle or Jake Ferguson? · Kyle Pitts Sr. or George Kittle?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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