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Should I draft Caleb Williams or Jaxson Dart? (PPR)
The verdict
Jaxson Dart
73%confident
The market's QB14 against our QB8, priced a round apart the wrong way. Easy arithmetic, loud verdict.
Dart projects a full point higher and goes six picks later — seven spots under his board rank, the largest quarterback discount on the site.
Caleb's fine and got his own projection trim, duly logged. But you don't pass a seven-spot gift to defend a fair price. 73%.
↻ Re-roll — Caleb's arm talent testifies well.
Caleb Williams QB
CHI · Bye 10 · Age 24
ADP
109.0 · QB14
TwoGun Board
QB15 · #20
Dog
n/a
Jaxson Dart QB
NYG · Bye 8 · Age 23
ADP
115.4 · QB15
TwoGun Board
QB8 · #11
Dog
n/a
| Caleb Williams | Jaxson Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | • fair price | ▲ +7 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 18.7 | 17.3 |
| 2025 games | 17 | 14 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 282.1 | 296.1 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 17.3 | 18.3 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▲ step up |
| 2025 snap share | 99% | 84% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Brock Purdy or Caleb Williams? · Matthew Stafford or Caleb Williams? · Jalen Hurts or Caleb Williams?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT