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Should I draft Brock Purdy or Caleb Williams? (PPR)
The verdict
Brock Purdy
99%confident
Caleb played all 17. Purdy played 9 and I still trust the shorter movie more.
Purdy averaged 19.7 a game before his year ended — the projection calls it 18 now, which is a spreadsheet's way of saying it's scared. He's also cheaper than our board says he should be. Discount plus doubt is my love language.
Caleb's projection got trimmed too — 18.7 down to 17.3 — and I'd normally ride to his defense. But you can't defend both men in one verdict. The one with the higher board rank wins the lawyer. 99%.
↻ Re-roll — Caleb's defense attorney is available on weekends.
Brock Purdy QB
SF · Bye 8 · Age 26
ADP
100.4 · QB12
TwoGun Board
QB10 · #13
Dog
n/a
Caleb Williams QB
CHI · Bye 10 · Age 24
ADP
109.0 · QB14
TwoGun Board
QB15 · #20
Dog
n/a
| Brock Purdy | Caleb Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +2 value | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 19.7 | 18.7 |
| 2025 games | 9 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 294.0 | 282.1 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 18.0 | 17.3 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 98% | 99% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Jared Goff or Brock Purdy? · Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy? · Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT