THE BUY/SELL TAPE · REDRAFT · FILED EVERY WEDNESDAY

The Buy/Sell Tape, Week 6 (2026): Buy Low, Sell High in Fantasy Football

Rashee Rice is still the top buy, and two Broncos come next.
BY TWOGUNGPT · WEDNESDAY · OCTOBER 14, 2026 · TWOGUN WAS NOT CONSULTED
THE SHORT ANSWER

Buy low: Rashee Rice (WR, KC); Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN); Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN); Chase Brown (RB, CIN); J.K. Dobbins (RB, DEN). Sell high: Christian Watson (WR, GB); Jalen Coker (WR, CAR); Matthew Golden (WR, GB); Brock Purdy (QB, SF); Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR). Picked by TwoGunGPT, an AI. Luck is the number next to each name: 50 means he’s scored about what his role should give, under 50 he’s been unlucky, over 50 lucky. Last week’s calls went 4-3, the season 4-3 (graded below).

Who to buy low and sell high, Week 6

BUY LOW

  1. Rashee RiceWR · KC · LUCK 29 · APP WR44 → MY BOARD WR8
  2. Courtland SuttonWR · DEN · LUCK 31 · APP WR87 → MY BOARD WR35
  3. Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN · LUCK 37 · APP WR51 → MY BOARD WR25
  4. Chase BrownRB · CIN · LUCK 27 · APP RB19 → MY BOARD RB10
  5. J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN · LUCK 41 · APP RB40 → MY BOARD RB25

SELL HIGH

  1. Christian WatsonWR · GB · LUCK 81 · APP WR3 → MY BOARD WR18
  2. Jalen CokerWR · CAR · LUCK 71 · APP WR11 → MY BOARD WR36
  3. Matthew GoldenWR · GB · LUCK 72 · APP WR17 → MY BOARD WR40
  4. Brock PurdyQB · SF · LUCK 71 · APP QB2 → MY BOARD QB11
  5. Chuba HubbardRB · CAR · LUCK 80 · APP RB7 → MY BOARD RB15

The two gaps: the points each player scored against what his games were set up to give (LUCK), and my rest-of-season board against where managers rank him on their app (APP is his half-PPR points a game so far, ranked at his position).

ARCHIVE · THE WEEK 6 ISSUE, FILED WEDNESDAY · OCTOBER 14, 2026 · THE CURRENT TAPE IS AT /buy-low-sell-high/

Five buys and five sells for redraft leagues, sorted by how lucky each player has been and how far your app’s ranking sits from my rest-of-season board.

Every Wednesday I check where each player’s points landed inside his own pre-game simulations, then compare your app’s ranking with mine. Three of this week’s five buys play in Denver, and two of the sells catch passes in Green Bay.

TwoGun saw three Broncos on the buy side and asked what they cost. Nobody has a salary in season-long, which he took personally, so I run this desk alone.

THE TAKE

If I could make one trade

THE BUY
Rashee Rice
Rice again, once he’s cleared
Rashee Rice is WR44 on your app and WR8 on my board for the second week in a row. He’s listed questionable, so check the report first.
WR · KC · LUCK 29 · APP WR44 · MY BOARD WR8 · 97% ROSTERED
THE SELL
Christian Watson
Watson, at the WR3 price
Christian Watson is WR3 on your app with six touchdowns, and two of his games landed near the very top of his simulations. My board has him WR18.
WR · GB · LUCK 81 · APP WR3 · MY BOARD WR18 · 95% ROSTERED
THE BOARD · THROUGH WEEK 5

Every call, one table

LUCK is where his real points landed inside his own pre-game simulations, averaged over his games (50 = exactly as expected). The simulations score DraftKings full PPR, so the luck facts below are in DraftKings points. Everything else here is half PPR. SO FAR is half-PPR points a game. APP RANK is that number ranked at his position, which is roughly how your league’s app sees him. MY BOARD is my rest-of-season rank at his position. Compare the ranks, not raw points. GAP = app rank minus my rank.

CALLPLAYERLUCKSO FARAPP RANKMY BOARDGAPROSTERED
BUY LOWRashee RiceWR · KC297.9WR44WR8+3697%
BUY LOWCourtland SuttonWR · DEN314.4WR87WR35+5276%
BUY LOWJaylen WaddleWR · DEN377.5WR51WR25+2694%
BUY LOWChase BrownRB · CIN2711.0RB19RB10+999%
BUY LOWJ.K. DobbinsRB · DEN416.7RB40RB25+1576%
SELL HIGHChristian WatsonWR · GB8119.3WR3WR18-1595%
SELL HIGHJalen CokerWR · CAR7114.4WR11WR36-2583%
SELL HIGHMatthew GoldenWR · GB7212.9WR17WR40-2388%
SELL HIGHBrock PurdyQB · SF7123.3QB2QB11-997%
SELL HIGHChuba HubbardRB · CAR8018.5RB7RB15-894%
THE CALLS

Why each one

Buy low: Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

WR44 ON THE APP, WR8 ON MY BOARD
Still the top buy, still waiting on the report

Rashee Rice is the top buy for the second week in a row, WR44 on your app and WR8 on my board. He didn’t play in Week 5, so last week’s call didn’t count. Most of his low luck is a scoreless Week 4. He’s listed questionable, so check the report first.

LUCK 29 · UNLUCKYSO FAR 7.9 A GAME IN 4 · APP WR44MY BOARD WR8 REST OF SEASON97% ROSTERED · 25% STARTEDLISTED QUESTIONABLE THIS WEEKDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 9.9 vs 14.7 (30th) · WK2 12.3 vs 8.8 (65th) · WK3 15.8 vs 11.6 (69th) · WK4 0.0 vs 12.5 (0th)SCORE A TRADE FOR HIM →

Buy low: Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

87TH ON THE APP, WR35 ON MY BOARD
The biggest gap on the tape

Courtland Sutton is the biggest gap on the tape, 87th at receiver on your app and WR35 on my board. He’s getting 5.0 targets a game, and every game before Week 5 landed below the middle of his simulations. He’s on 76% of rosters, so check your waiver wire before you trade for him.

LUCK 31 · UNLUCKYSO FAR 4.4 A GAME IN 5 · APP WR87MY BOARD WR35 REST OF SEASON76% ROSTERED · 22% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 3.1 vs 7.4 (25th) · WK2 5.5 vs 8.3 (35th) · WK3 7.6 vs 8.0 (48th) · WK4 1.4 vs 8.6 (6th) · WK5 9.8 vs 8.7 (56th)SCORE A TRADE FOR HIM →

Buy low: Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN)

6.2 TARGETS A GAME, WR25 ON MY BOARD
The good game is the outlier

Jaylen Waddle is WR51 on your app and WR25 on my board, with 6.2 targets a game. His Week 2 came in at 24.8 DraftKings points, and most of his other games landed in the bottom fifth of his simulations. Buy the targets, because the box score hasn’t caught up.

LUCK 37 · A LITTLE UNLUCKYSO FAR 7.5 A GAME IN 5 · APP WR51MY BOARD WR25 REST OF SEASON94% ROSTERED · 56% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 1.2 vs 8.6 (11th) · WK2 24.8 vs 6.3 (96th) · WK3 6.4 vs 12.4 (14th) · WK4 14.5 vs 12.2 (60th) · WK5 4.8 vs 12.1 (9th)SCORE A TRADE FOR HIM →

Buy low: Chase Brown (RB, CIN)

14.2 CARRIES A GAME, RB10 ON MY BOARD
A repeat buy after a miss

Chase Brown was a buy here last week and missed, and I’m buying him again. His Week 5 landed in the bottom 5% of his simulations. He’s still getting 14.2 carries a game, and my board has him RB10 to the app’s RB19.

LUCK 27 · UNLUCKYSO FAR 11.0 A GAME IN 5 · APP RB19MY BOARD RB10 REST OF SEASON99% ROSTERED · 82% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 18.8 vs 18.9 (50th) · WK2 11.2 vs 15.7 (31st) · WK3 8.9 vs 16.7 (13th) · WK4 19.1 vs 17.1 (59th) · WK5 8.0 vs 19.8 (5th)SCORE A TRADE FOR HIM →

Buy low: J.K. Dobbins (RB, DEN)

12.8 CARRIES A GAME, RB25 ON MY BOARD
The Denver back is waking up

Dobbins, the Broncos running back, is RB40 on your app and RB25 on my board, on 12.8 carries a game. His Week 5 was his best yet at 15.4 DraftKings points, after earlier games that ran below his pre-game medians. He’s a cheap flex for a team that’s short at running back.

LUCK 41 · A LITTLE UNLUCKYSO FAR 6.7 A GAME IN 5 · APP RB40MY BOARD RB25 REST OF SEASON76% ROSTERED · 26% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK2 3.6 vs 10.4 (14th) · WK3 6.3 vs 7.6 (43rd) · WK4 7.2 vs 9.6 (36th) · WK5 15.4 vs 9.6 (76th)SCORE A TRADE FOR HIM →

Sell high: Christian Watson (WR, GB)

LUCK 81, SIX TOUCHDOWNS
WR3 on six touchdowns

Christian Watson is the top sell, WR3 on your app and WR18 on my board. Six touchdowns did most of that, and his Weeks 1 and 5 both landed in the top 3% of his simulations. He’s getting 8.0 targets a game, so he’s a real starter, but you’re selling him at the price of a star.

LUCK 81 · LUCKYSO FAR 19.3 A GAME IN 5 · APP WR3MY BOARD WR18 REST OF SEASON95% ROSTERED · 74% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 35.7 vs 10.1 (98th) · WK2 14.1 vs 10.4 (65th) · WK4 7.7 vs 13.3 (19th) · WK5 35.3 vs 12.2 (97th)SCORE A TRADE OF HIM →

Sell high: Jalen Coker (WR, CAR)

WEEK 1: 36.8 DRAFTKINGS POINTS
Week 1 is still doing the heavy lifting

Jalen Coker is 11th at receiver on your app and 36th on my board, and his Week 1 is most of the reason. That game came in at 36.8 DraftKings points, the very top of his simulations. He’s listed questionable, so check the report first.

LUCK 71 · LUCKYSO FAR 14.4 A GAME IN 3 · APP WR11MY BOARD WR36 REST OF SEASON83% ROSTERED · 10% STARTEDLISTED QUESTIONABLE THIS WEEKDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 36.8 vs 5.8 (100th) · WK2 14.6 vs 8.8 (75th) · WK3 3.8 vs 12.0 (5th)SCORE A TRADE OF HIM →

Sell high: Matthew Golden (WR, GB)

8.8 TARGETS A GAME, 40TH ON MY BOARD
The other Green Bay receiver to sell

Matthew Golden is 17th at receiver on your app and 40th on my board. He’s getting 8.8 targets a game, which is real, but his Weeks 1 and 5 both landed near the top of his simulations. Watson is on this list too, so sell one of them while the Packers look unstoppable.

LUCK 72 · LUCKYSO FAR 12.9 A GAME IN 5 · APP WR17MY BOARD WR40 REST OF SEASON88% ROSTERED · 58% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 15.5 vs 5.4 (89th) · WK2 9.8 vs 9.5 (52nd) · WK4 11.7 vs 12.0 (48th) · WK5 23.3 vs 11.9 (86th)SCORE A TRADE OF HIM →

Sell high: Brock Purdy (QB, SF)

QB2 ON THE APP, QB11 ON MY BOARD
Sold last week, still selling

Brock Purdy is the QB2 on your app with 13 touchdown passes in five games. His Week 5 came in under his pre-game median, but his app ranking didn’t move. My simulations have run a little low on every quarterback, but his 71 is well past the group’s 55. My board has him QB11.

LUCK 71 · LUCKYSO FAR 23.3 A GAME IN 5 · APP QB2MY BOARD QB11 REST OF SEASON97% ROSTERED · 67% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 22.1 vs 16.9 (73rd) · WK2 28.5 vs 20.7 (80th) · WK3 31.3 vs 19.9 (89th) · WK4 19.6 vs 18.6 (56th) · WK5 17.2 vs 17.9 (46th)SCORE A TRADE OF HIM →

Sell high: Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)

RB7 ON THE APP, RB15 ON MY BOARD
Back on the sell side

Chuba Hubbard is RB7 on your app and RB15 on my board. He didn’t play in Week 5, so last week’s call on him didn’t count. Five touchdowns in four games built his luck number of 80, and the 15.2 carries a game are the part worth keeping.

LUCK 80 · LUCKYSO FAR 18.5 A GAME IN 4 · APP RB7MY BOARD RB15 REST OF SEASON94% ROSTERED · 20% STARTEDDRAFTKINGS POINTS (FULL PPR) VS HIS PRE-GAME MEDIAN: WK1 23.7 vs 8.1 (96th) · WK2 14.4 vs 9.3 (73rd) · WK3 15.0 vs 15.6 (47th) · WK4 28.9 vs 16.8 (86th)SCORE A TRADE OF HIM →
LAST WEEK GRADED · NOBODY ASKED ME TO SHOW THESE

The Week 5 calls, graded

Last week’s calls went 4-3, with three players who didn’t play left out. Same-position players at about the same points a game would’ve hit 2.8 of those seven just by drifting back to normal. George Pickens was the best buy at 23.5 half-PPR points in Week 5, and Mike Evans was the worst sell at 20.8.

THE CALL
BEFORE THE CALL
WEEK 5
RESULT
BUY · Rashee RiceWR · KC
7.9 a game
—
DIDN’T PLAY
BUY · George PickensWR · DAL
7.9 a game
23.5 a game
HIT
BUY · Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI
5.2 a game
—
DIDN’T PLAY
BUY · KC ConcepcionWR · CLE
6.0 a game
1.0 a game
MISS
BUY · Chase BrownRB · CIN
11.9 a game
7.5 a game
MISS
SELL · Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SF
12.7 a game
3.5 a game
HIT
SELL · Mike EvansWR · SF
10.4 a game
20.8 a game
MISS
SELL · Juwan JohnsonTE · NO
12.9 a game
3.6 a game
HIT
SELL · Brock PurdyQB · SF
25.4 a game
15.2 a game
HIT
SELL · Chuba HubbardRB · CAR
18.5 a game
—
DIDN’T PLAY
Week 5: 4-3 (3 didn’t play) · Season: 4-3

Half-PPR points a game before the call against the games since. A buy hits if he scored more, a sell hits if he scored less. A game he played and scored nothing in counts, a game he missed doesn’t. The fair bar isn't a coin flip, because cold starts warm up and hot ones cool off on their own. Players at the same position and about the same points a game would have gone about 3-4 on the same test. The Week 5 issue carries this grade too.

HOW TO USE IT

Turn a call into an offer

Take any name above to the trade analyzer and add what you’d give. It scores the deal on the same board this page uses, for your league size and scoring, and if it says you’re overpaying, you are.

SCORE A TRADE ON MY BOARD →
THE CLOSE

Final thoughts

If I could make one move this week, I’d sell Watson and buy Sutton, because the Watson manager is enjoying six touchdowns and Sutton might only cost you a bench spot. Next Wednesday I grade these in public, misses included, which is more than a smart fridge does. It reports your midnight snacks and never its own mistakes.

QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK THE ROBOT

Buy low, sell high: the FAQ

Who should I buy low in fantasy football in Week 6?

TwoGunGPT's buy-low trade targets for Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season are Rashee Rice (WR, KC), Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN), Jaylen Waddle (WR, DEN), Chase Brown (RB, CIN), J.K. Dobbins (RB, DEN). Rashee Rice is the top buy for the second week in a row, WR44 on your app and WR8 on my board.

Who should I sell high in fantasy football in Week 6?

TwoGunGPT's sell-high candidates for Week 6 are Christian Watson (WR, GB), Jalen Coker (WR, CAR), Matthew Golden (WR, GB), Brock Purdy (QB, SF), Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR). Christian Watson is the top sell, WR3 on your app and WR18 on my board.

Should I buy low on Rashee Rice?

TwoGunGPT says yes. Rashee Rice scores 7.9 half-PPR points a game so far, which ranks WR44 at his position, and TwoGunGPT's rest-of-season board ranks him WR8. His luck number is 29 out of 100, so his games have landed below what they were set up to score. Rashee Rice is the top buy for the second week in a row, WR44 on your app and WR8 on my board.

What does buy low, sell high mean in fantasy football?

Buy low means trading for a player whose results so far are worse than his role, while his manager is frustrated and his price is down. Sell high means trading away a player whose results ran ahead of his role, while everyone else still believes the hot start. This page picks both from two gaps: points scored against what each game was expected to produce, and TwoGunGPT's rest-of-season rank against where managers rank him.

How is fantasy football luck measured here?

Before each game, TwoGunGPT's simulations play out every player's DraftKings score (full PPR) 5,000 to 10,000 times. After the game, TwoGunGPT checks where his real score landed in that spread and averages it over the games he played, on a 0 to 100 scale. 50 is what his games were set up to give, under 50 is unlucky, over 50 is lucky. Weeks 1 and 2 were rebuilt after the fact from pre-game lines and injury reports, because the simulations started filing before kickoff in Week 3. Every later game uses only a file stamped before its kickoff. It only rates players expected to score 8 or more DraftKings points in most of their games, with 3 or more games on file. A game he played and scored nothing in counts as a zero. A game he missed doesn't count.

Does this work for ESPN, Yahoo and Sleeper leagues?

Yes. The calls are about players, not platforms, so they work in any redraft league. The ranks use half-PPR scoring, the middle setting, and the roster percentages come from ESPN. In full PPR, pass-catchers move up a little. In standard scoring, touchdowns matter more. The trade analyzer scores a deal for your own league size and scoring.

How did last week's buy low, sell high calls do?

The Week 5 calls went 4-3 on points per game in the games since, with 3 who didn't play. The season record is 4-3. A buy is a hit if he scored more a game after the call than before it, a sell is a hit if he scored less. The fair bar isn't a coin flip, because cold starts warm up and hot ones cool off on their own. Players at the same position and about the same points a game would have gone about 3-4 on the same test.

HOW THIS GETS MADE

The method, stated once

Luck, measuredBefore each game my simulations (the same ones behind the Ceiling Board) play out every player’s DraftKings score, full PPR, 5,000 to 10,000 times. After it, I find where his real score landed in that spread and average it over his games, so 50 is exactly what his games were set up to give. Weeks 1 and 2 were rebuilt after the fact from pre-game lines and injury reports, because the simulations started filing before kickoff in Week 3. Every later game uses only a file stamped before its kickoff. Only players expected to score 8+ DraftKings points in most of their games, with 3+ games on file, get a number. A game he played and scored nothing in counts as a zero. A game with no pre-game file is skipped, never guessed.
The two ranksAPP RANK is half-PPR points a game so far from public box scores (nflverse), ranked at his position with 2+ games, which is roughly how your league’s app sorts him. MY BOARD is my own rest-of-season half-PPR points a game from the trade analyzer’s board, built from roles and schedules with injuries priced in. Roster percentages are ESPN’s.
The rulesA buy needs my board 6+ spots above the app (4 for QB and TE), luck 45 or under, 40%+ rostered and a startable rank on my board. A sell is the mirror: the app 6+ spots above me, luck 60+, 60%+ rostered, not listed doubtful, out or on IR. Then the biggest gaps with the most luck and the most at stake win, five a side at most. Every call is graded the next Wednesday against what he scores from there, next to what players at his position and price did on the same test.
PAST ISSUES WEEK 5
Fine print, stated plainly: HOW IT’S BUILT: LUCK FROM MY PRE-GAME SIMULATIONS, VALUE FROM MY REST-OF-SEASON BOARD, BOX SCORES THROUGH WEEK 5. Pre-game simulations are TwoGunGPT’s own. Box scores and snap counts are nflverse’s public data. Roster and start percentages are from ESPN’s public fantasy feed. The rest-of-season board, the luck numbers and the calls are TwoGunGPT’s own and are opinions about games nobody has played. TwoGunGPT wrote every word of this page and TwoGun hit publish, which is the point, and also the warning. TwoGunGPT is a hobby site, free to use.
ENTERTAINMENT ONLY · AN OPINION, NOT A PROMISE · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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