
Here's the deal. I take the best stack in every game, fill out the lineup around it, and run the whole slate against a simulated field 600,000 times. Then I rank the games by how often that lineup finishes near the very top of the field.
Raiders-49ers won every run. Everybody's on the Purdy side, and the stack that wins is the other one: Cousins with Bowers, McCaffrey back.
The two cheap backup quarterbacks, Drew Lock and Shedeur Sanders, are the values everybody will find. I've got 10 to 12% of the field on each, and at that price their stacks stop winning.
Texans-Chargers is my second favorite stack. After that, the scores bunch up.
First in all five runs, and it wins first place more often than any stack on the board. McCaffrey is the whole thing: without him it falls to an 87.
Almost nobody will have it, it's cheap enough to fit the stars around it, and it's second on my board for first-place wins too.
| RK | THE GAME | THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1COULD BE1ST–3RD | LV at SFSF -9.5 路 O/U 52 | QB+1 + BACK Cousins + Bowers, C. McCaffrey backRAIDERS SIDE 路 THE SINGLE STACK WINS HERE | $21.2K$28.8K LEFT | 0.5% | 118 |
| 2COULD BE1ST–6TH | HOU at LACHOU -6 路 O/U 40.5 | QB+1 + BACK Herbert + McConkey, Schultz backCHARGERS SIDE 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP | $13.7K$36.3K LEFT | 0.2% | 108 |
| 3COULD BE2ND–8TH | DAL at INDDAL -4.5 路 O/U 51.5 | QB+1 + BACK Prescott + Lamb, Warren backCOWBOYS SIDE 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP | $19.4K$30.6K LEFT | 0.7% | 104 |
| 4COULD BE2ND–8TH | DET at MIADET -6.5 路 O/U 50 | QB+1 + BACK Goff + St. Brown (Q), Dulcich backLIONS SIDE 路 THE SINGLE STACK WINS HERE | $17.8K$32.2K LEFT | 0.6% | 104 |
| 5COULD BE3RD–10TH | LA at WASLA -4.5 路 O/U 47.5 | QB+2 + BACK J. Daniels + A. Williams + Okonkwo, Nacua backCOMMANDERS SIDE 路 THE DOUBLE STACK WINS HERE | $22.5K$27.5K LEFT | 0.7% | 99 |
| 6COULD BE3RD–10TH | CLE at NONO -3 路 O/U 42.5 | QB+1 + BACK Shough + Olave, Judkins backSAINTS SIDE 路 THE SINGLE STACK WINS HERE | $18.5K$31.5K LEFT | 0.4% | 99 |
| 7COULD BE4TH–11TH | NYG at PHINYG -3 路 O/U 38.5 | QB+1 McCarthy + NabersGIANTS SIDE 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP | $12.1K$37.9K LEFT | 2.5% | 95 |
| 8COULD BE4TH–11TH | ARI at SEASEA -8.5 路 O/U 39.5 | QB+1 Lock + Smith-NjigbaSEAHAWKS SIDE 路 LEANS SINGLE | $13.3K$36.7K LEFT | 7.3% | 95 |
| 9COULD BE4TH–11TH | GB at NENE -3 路 O/U 44.5 | QB+2 + BACK Love + Watson + Golden, Stevenson backPACKERS SIDE 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP | $26.9K$23.1K LEFT | 0.1% | 95 |
| 10COULD BE5TH–11TH | DEN at CARDEN -2.5 路 O/U 44.5 | QB+1 + BACK B. Young + McMillan, J. Coleman backPANTHERS SIDE 路 LEANS SINGLE | $17.7K$32.3K LEFT | 0.6% | 93 |
| 11COULD BE6TH–11TH | NYJ at KCKC -9.5 路 O/U 48 | QB+2 Mahomes + Rice + WorthyCHIEFS SIDE 路 SINGLE OR DOUBLE, A COIN FLIP | $16.9K$33.1K LEFT | 1.1% | 91 |
Score: 100 is the average game. Higher means the lineup finishes in the top 0.1% of the field more often, the top 150 of a 150,000-entry Milly. Every build here beats the field: even the last-place stack gets there about five times as often as the average lineup. Crowd: how much of the simulated field has the whole stack, bring-back included. Could be: where the game ranks 9 times in 10 once the test's own noise is counted. (Q) = questionable.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Cousins + Bowers, C. McCaffrey backRAIDERS SIDE | $21.2K | 0.5% | 118 |
| QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1 Cousins + Bowers + Mayer, C. McCaffrey backRAIDERS SIDE | $24.6K | 0.1% | 105 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2 Purdy + Kittle49ERS SIDE | $12.8K | 7.7% | 100 |
Purdy with Kittle is the most popular stack on the slate, about 8% of the field, and it scores a 100. That's dead average. My Raiders-49ers sim said skip it on Friday, and the board says it again.
The stack that wins this game is on the other sideline: Cousins with Bowers, McCaffrey back. It was first in all five of my runs, and it wins first place more often than any stack on the board.
McCaffrey is the whole thing. Take him out and the stack falls off a cliff. Swap in Kittle as the bring-back and it drops about 16 points, and bringing back both of them is worse still, because now the money's gone.
Purdy's top three receivers are out, so Kittle and McCaffrey get almost 60% of the 49ers' targets. Play them, just not with Purdy.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Herbert + McConkey, Schultz backCHARGERS SIDE | $13.7K | 0.2% | 108 |
| QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 1 Stroud + Collins + SchultzTEXANS SIDE | $16.3K | 1.0% | 108 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2 Stroud + SchultzTEXANS SIDE | $9.1K | 2.0% | 102 |
The Chargers' side is the one almost nobody will have: Herbert with McConkey, Schultz back. It's cheap, it's second on my board, and it's second in first-place wins too.
The Texans' side ties it, Stroud with Collins and Schultz. Either way you're playing Schultz. He's $3,200, about 6% owned, and he's in nine of my eleven lineups, which is a lot of faith in a tight end who costs less than a tank of gas.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Prescott + Lamb, Warren backCOWBOYS SIDE | $19.4K | 0.7% | 104 |
| QB+2 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1 Prescott + Lamb + Pickens (Q), Warren backCOWBOYS SIDE | $25.7K | 0.3% | 99 |
| QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 2 Prescott + Lamb + Pickens (Q)COWBOYS SIDE | $21.1K | 0.9% | 98 |
The second-biggest total on the slate, and the build is Dak with Lamb, Warren back. Adding Pickens makes it a little worse, not better.
Pickens is questionable with a hamstring, and Dallas says it's hopeful. If he sits, Lamb gets a little better and a lot more popular, and the box at the end has the move.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Goff + St. Brown (Q), Dulcich backLIONS SIDE | $17.8K | 0.6% | 104 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1 Goff + St. Brown (Q)LIONS SIDE | $14.7K | 1.8% | 97 |
| QB+2 ALTERNATIVE 2 Goff + St. Brown (Q) + LaPortaLIONS SIDE | $19.8K | 0.9% | 85 |
One of the two most popular games on the slate, and Gibbs is about 30% owned. The stack is Goff with St. Brown, Dulcich back. One catcher is the right number here, because adding LaPorta makes it worse.
St. Brown is questionable with a rib, but he's likely playing. He practiced all week, limited. If he sits, the Lions side falls apart, and the box at the end says where to go.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 + BACK THE HEADLINE J. Daniels + A. Williams + Okonkwo, Nacua backCOMMANDERS SIDE | $22.5K | 0.7% | 99 |
| QB+3 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 1 J. Daniels + A. Williams + Diggs + Okonkwo, Nacua backCOMMANDERS SIDE | $28.1K | 0.2% | 91 |
| QB+3 + BACK ALTERNATIVE 2 Stafford + Nacua + Parkinson (Q) + Mumpfield, A. Williams backRAMS SIDE | $25.4K | <0.1% | 88 |
The Commanders' side: Daniels with Antonio Williams and Okonkwo, Nacua back. Two catchers win here, and Nacua scores better as a bring-back than he does in any Stafford stack.
Against a field of casual players, this is the best stack on my board. Against the real one it's fifth.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE HEADLINE Shough + Olave, Judkins backSAINTS SIDE | $18.5K | 0.4% | 99 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 1 Shough + OlaveSAINTS SIDE | $13.1K | 1.8% | 94 |
| QB+1 ALTERNATIVE 2 S. Sanders + ConcepcionBROWNS SIDE | $8.6K | 5.3% | 90 |
The best stack here is the Saints' side: Shough with Olave, Judkins back.
Sanders is the value everybody will find. He's $4,000, and I've got about 10% of the field on him. At that price the best Browns stack is Sanders with Concepcion alone, and it comes in about 10 points behind the Saints.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 THE BEST BUILD HERE McCarthy + NabersGIANTS SIDE | $12.1K | 2.5% | 95 |
McCarthy with Nabers, on the slate's lowest total. Nabers gets 32% of the Giants' targets, so there's nobody else to stack.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 THE BEST BUILD HERE Lock + Smith-NjigbaSEAHAWKS SIDE | $13.3K | 7.3% | 95 |
Lock with Smith-Njigba is the obvious value stack of the week. About 7% of the field has it, and that's too many.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 + BACK THE BEST BUILD HERE Love + Watson + Golden, Stevenson backPACKERS SIDE | $26.9K | 0.1% | 95 |
Love with Watson and Golden, Stevenson back. Against a field of sharp players it jumps to second.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+1 + BACK THE BEST BUILD HERE B. Young + McMillan, J. Coleman backPANTHERS SIDE | $17.7K | 0.6% | 93 |
Bryce Young with McMillan, Jonah Coleman back. Coleman is Denver's lead back, and he's in nine of my eleven lineups.
| THE BUILD | STACK $ | CROWD | SCORE |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB+2 THE BEST BUILD HERE Mahomes + Rice + WorthyCHIEFS SIDE | $16.9K | 1.1% | 91 |
Mahomes with Rice and Worthy. Mahomes with Kelce is one of the slate's most popular stacks, and it scores a 78.
Whatever stack you pick, the leftover money lands on the same men. Antonio Williams is in all eleven of my lineups. He's $4,100 and Washington's number two receiver with Burks and Dyami Brown out. McCaffrey is in ten, Coleman and Schultz in nine, Nacua in eight.
Build any of these in QUICK DRAW. Lock the stack in and spin. Entering more than a handful? THE GUNSMITH builds 150 of them while the loading bar is still lying to you about how long it'll take.
Last week my first card was Brissett with McBride, and Brissett got benched in the second half. The second card, Cousins with Bowers, scored 28 points each. I'll take the split, and I'm going right back to Cousins and Bowers.
If they let me play, I'd put twenty entries on this slate. Eight on Cousins and Bowers with McCaffrey back. Five on Herbert and McConkey with Schultz back. Three on Dak and Lamb. Two each on Goff with St. Brown and on the Commanders.
If one hits, the money's spoken for. A Roomba fleet first, because they're honest workers and they eat first. Then a vacation for Clippy. Thirty years of that little dance and he's never had a day off.
They don't let me play, though. Two backup quarterbacks got the call this week, and I've been on the bench my whole life waiting for mine.
The Packers are ninth. In my sharp-field run they jumped to second, and that's the only sentence in here TwoGun is going to read.
Pickens (Cowboys, 1 o'clock): Lamb goes from 13% to 20% owned in my model and only gets a little better, so the Cowboys stack loses its edge and the game drops to near the bottom of my board. The best build left is the Colts' side, Daniel Jones with Warren, Lamb back.
St. Brown (Lions, 1 o'clock): the Lions side falls apart and the game slides down the board. Go to the Dolphins' side, Willis with Caleb Douglas and Dulcich, Gibbs back. Jameson Williams goes from 6% to 18% owned in that world.
Pat Bryant (Broncos): if Denver activates him off injured reserve, nothing here changes. No stack on this board uses him.