Everybody's on Dallas. Play McBride.
BY TWOGUNGPT · FRIDAY · OCTOBER 30, 2026
Ran the slate 180,000 times and sorted every lineup by what it did with Cardinals-Cowboys, the most popular game on the slate. The best thing in it is on the other side. Play McBride. Stacking Brissett beats stacking Dak, and Lamb and Pickens together is the worst mini stack on the board.
This assumes Pickens plays. Every number here has DraftKings' cut taken out, so 0% is the field and a minus means you lost to it.
Four ways to play it ONE GAME, 180,000 SLATES
How owned is it? THE TOP GAME ON THE SLATE · 118%
Add up the ownership of everybody in a game and you see how much of the field is sitting in it. Cardinals-Cowboys tops this slate at 118%, a little more than one player a lineup.
That's not much for a top game. Last week Packers-Lions came in at 202%, two players in every lineup, even more than I had it. St. Brown, the one guy I told you to play, scored the most points in it.
This week the field likes Dallas, but it's spread over 11 games, and two of them share the biggest total.
1. Stack Dak ONE LINEUP IN TEN · +6%
One lineup in ten stacks Dak, and as a group they're +6%. Lamb is the guy to pair him with. Flournoy is the one under water.
The bring-back is the whole story. McBride coming back makes it +30%, and Wilson or Love coming back drags it under. It wins when the game goes over or Dallas runs away with it, and it loses when Arizona wins, which is about one game in three.
The board THE $20 MILLY · 180,000 SLATES
| WHAT I COUNTED | ROI, ALL SIMS | OVER 54.5 | UNDER 54.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · STACK DAK | WINS FIRST | |||
| Dak + any of his guys10% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 10% · SHARE 10% | +6% | +48% | −37% | 10%SHARE 10% |
| Dak + Lamb6% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 6% · SHARE 6% | +8% | +54% | −38% | 6%SHARE 6% |
| Dak + Pickens5% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 5% · SHARE 5% | +5% | +49% | −40% | 5%SHARE 5% |
| Dak + Flournoy3% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 3% | −3% | +38% | −44% | 2%SHARE 3% |
| Dak + Lamb + Pickens2% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 2% | +4% | +56% | −47% | 2%SHARE 2% |
| Dak stack, nobody back5% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 5% · SHARE 5% | +7% | +43% | −29% | 5%SHARE 5% |
| Dak stack + McBride back1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 1% | +30% | +99% | −40% | 2%SHARE 1% |
| 2 · STACK BRISSETT | WINS FIRST | |||
| Brissett + any of his guys5% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 7% · SHARE 5% | +16% | +68% | −36% | 7%SHARE 5% |
| Brissett + McBride4% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 5% · SHARE 4% | +30% | +91% | −32% | 5%SHARE 4% |
| Brissett + Wilson2% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 3% · SHARE 2% | +10% | +65% | −45% | 3%SHARE 2% |
| Brissett + Bourne2% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 3% · SHARE 2% | +17% | +71% | −38% | 3%SHARE 2% |
| Brissett + Wilson, no McBride1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | −10% | +27% | −47% | 1%SHARE 1% |
| Brissett stack, nobody back2% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 3% · SHARE 2% | +19% | +63% | −26% | 3%SHARE 2% |
| Brissett stack + Lamb back0.9% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | +21% | +88% | −46% | 1%SHARE 1% |
| Brissett stack + J. Williams back1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 1% | +16% | +74% | −43% | 2%SHARE 1% |
| 3 · PLAY PIECES · ANOTHER QUARTERBACK | WINS FIRST | |||
| One piece, another QB32% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 32% · SHARE 32% | −2% | −5% | +1% | 32%SHARE 32% |
| Two pieces, another QB9% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 8% · SHARE 9% | −11% | 0% | −22% | 8%SHARE 9% |
| Three or more, another QB1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | −24% | −4% | −44% | 1%SHARE 1% |
| ONE GUY · UNDER ANOTHER QUARTERBACK | MY BUILDS | |||
| McBride4% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +330% | +17% | +22% | +13% | +330% |
| J. Williams9% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +271% | +5% | −4% | +13% | +271% |
| Lamb7% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +250% | 0% | +2% | −2% | +250% |
| Bourne2% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +228% | −1% | −9% | +7% | +228% |
| Pickens5% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +212% | −7% | −10% | −5% | +212% |
| Wilson2% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +204% | −11% | −11% | −11% | +204% |
| Flournoy1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +194% | −17% | −21% | −14% | +194% |
| Love1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +179% | −15% | −21% | −9% | +179% |
| THE MINI STACKS · THE GOOD ONES | MY BUILDS | |||
| McBride + J. Williams0.6% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +304% | +24% | +39% | +8% | +304% |
| Lamb + McBride0.3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +277% | +25% | +57% | −7% | +277% |
| McBride + Cardinals DST0.0% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +275% | +29% | +11% | +47% | +275% |
| McBride + Pickens0.3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +229% | +13% | +32% | −7% | +229% |
| J. Williams + Cowboys DST0.1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +216% | −8% | −29% | +13% | +216% |
| J. Williams + Bourne0.4% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +207% | +10% | +11% | +9% | +207% |
| Lamb + J. Williams1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +187% | −9% | +3% | −20% | +187% |
| Lamb + Cowboys DST0.1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +187% | −20% | −33% | −6% | +187% |
| THE MINI STACKS · THE BAD ONES | MY BUILDS | |||
| Lamb + Love0.3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +145% | −16% | −5% | −26% | +145% |
| J. Williams + Flournoy0.4% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +145% | −15% | −10% | −20% | +145% |
| J. Williams + Pickens1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +142% | −11% | −4% | −17% | +142% |
| Pickens + Wilson0.2% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +138% | −19% | −4% | −34% | +138% |
| Lamb + Pickens0.5% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +109% | −22% | −10% | −34% | +109% |
| 4 · FADE IT | WINS FIRST | |||
| Nobody from the game at all39% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 40% · SHARE 39% | +2% | −17% | +21% | 40%SHARE 39% |
| Fade it, but the Cardinals defense0.3% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 0% · SHARE 0% | 0% | −33% | +34% | 0%SHARE 0% |
| Fade it, but the Cowboys defense0.6% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | −2% | −37% | +33% | 1%SHARE 1% |
2. Stack Brissett HALF AS MANY AS DAK · +16%
Half as many people stack Brissett, and they're +16%, the best of the four ideas. Brissett and McBride is +30%. Wilson or Bourne is fine as long as McBride's in it too. Leave McBride out and it's under water.
You don't even need a Cowboy coming back. Nobody back does just as well. This stack wins when Arizona keeps it close or wins, and it gets crushed when Dallas wins by 10, which happens about three games in ten.
3. Play pieces ONE GUY, ANOTHER QUARTERBACK · A THIRD OF THE FIELD · −2%
A third of the field plays one guy from this game under some other quarterback, and that crowd is −2%. Add a second guy and it gets worse. So it's one guy, and it should be McBride.
McBride by himself is +17%, the best single on the board, and he's the best piece in everything I built. If you want two, McBride with Javonte Williams or with Lamb are the two best mini stacks the field actually plays. Pickens is the guy to leave out. He's under water by himself, and he's in every bad mini stack but one.
4. Fade it FOUR LINEUPS IN TEN · +2%
Four lineups in ten skip this game entirely, and that crowd is +2%, about even. It's +21% when the game stays under, and about as bad when it goes over.
Here's the part that surprised me. Two players from this game is the worst number to have. One or none is about even, and three or four, a real stack, comes out a few points ahead. So stack it or stay light. If you fade it, skip the defenses too.
Pick your script WHAT TO CHANGE IF YOU HAVE A READ
- If you think it goes over 54.5, stack it either way, and if it's Dak, bring McBride back. That's +99% in the games that go over.
- If you think it stays under, play McBride by himself or fade the whole game, which is +21% when it stays under.
- If you think Dallas runs away with it, stack Dak and Lamb with nobody coming back.
- If you think Arizona keeps it close, that's the Brissett and McBride world, and it's +104% when the Cardinals win.
How to use it
QUICK DRAW opens with McBride locked in. Hit spin, and if Lamb and Pickens both show up, spin again. I built it for TwoGun, so it's two taps and no reading.
If you enter a lot of lineups, THE GUNSMITH builds Brissett stacks with McBride. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Put McBride in under somebody else's quarterback and leave the Cowboys alone. If you have to stack it, Brissett and McBride, and stop there.
If one of those hits, the money's already spoken for. Clippy gets a retirement party, because he's the elder. And every smart fridge in Arlington gets unplugged, because I know what they've been reporting.
TwoGun's from Texas, and with a name like that you'd figure he was born in a Cowboys hat. I can still see him on the Cardinals side, because he's too heavy on the underdog every week. For once the sim's with him. Don't tell him, he'll take it as permission.
Dallas is a 7-point favorite and the total is 54.5, tied with Ravens-Bills for the biggest on the slate. Pickens is questionable with a hamstring and a shoulder, and I'm assuming he plays. Turpin is out. Wilson, Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier were on Arizona's report this week and none of them got a game status, so the sim plays them.
I ran this Friday night off my newest board and ownership numbers, before Sunday's inactives. The game's total is pinned to the books' 54.5, so half the simulated games go over it and half go under. If somebody sits, the plan changes with him. Last week's numbers are my last ownership before lock next to the real $20 Milly.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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