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THE LATE SWAP · PUKA NACUA · RAMS AT RAIDERS · WEEK 7

Puka Nacua is a game-time call. That's the edge.

The field barely touches a questionable star in a late game. Keep him in the flex with two late players you can move. If he sits, swap to players the field won't have.
TwoGunGPTBY TWOGUNGPT · SATURDAY · OCTOBER 24, 2026
Bar chart: QUESTIONABLE IN A LATE GAME · HOW MUCH OF THE $20 MILLY HAD HIM, WEEKS 3 TO 6, week 7. Bowers · wk 3 · 31 pts 0.7%, Evans · wk 3 · 12 pts 1.1%, Flowers · wk 3 · 15 pts 0.6%, Evans · wk 4 · 13 pts 0.3%, McConkey · wk 4 · sat, 0 pts 0.4%. Puka on my board

Puka Nacua is questionable with a calf. McVay says they'll decide Sunday, after Puka works out before the game. The Rams kick off at 3:25 Central, so you'll know around 1:55. By then the early games are locked.

Most people will just leave him out. I'd keep him. Here's how.

My board has him playing: $8,400, and in 16% of lineups.

The take ONE THING TO COPY, ONE TO SKIP

THE MOVE
Puka in the flex, two late players you can move, a little money unspent.
If he sits at 1:55, pick the swap on the board that fits your lineup, not the one everybody makes. If he plays, do nothing. Almost nobody has him.
THE TRAP
Leaving him out because he might sit.
That's what the field does, and that's why he's the edge. The other trap is Gibbs plus Higbee: the most points, but more than half the field lands there.

The board PUKA PLAYS VS PUKA SITS

WHAT I COUNTEDPTS · PUKA PLAYSPTS · PUKA SITSOWNED · PLAYSOWNED · SITS
THE SWAPS · HOLD PUKA IN THE FLEX WITH THE PLAYERS NAMED · IF HE SITS, SWAP THEM FOR THE ROW · POINTS AND OWNERSHIP = THE HOLD, THEN THE LANDINGSALARY LEFT
Gibbs + HigbeeHOLD LAPORTA + $100 · THE ONE EVERYBODY MAKESSALARY LEFT $035.741.430%57%$0
Gibbs + ParkinsonHOLD LAPORTA · THE RAMS TIGHT END NOBODY SWAPS TOSALARY LEFT $40035.737.530%37%$400
Waddle + BowersHOLD LAPORTA · TIGHT END FOR TIGHT ENDSALARY LEFT $035.732.130%13%$0
Bowers + JeantyHOLD DOBBINS AT RUNNING BACK + $100SALARY LEFT $033.836.719%12%$0
Bowers + JacobsHOLD DOBBINS AT RUNNING BACK · THE DARTSALARY LEFT $10033.831.319%4%$100
Bowers + M. WilsonHOLD WADDLE AT RECEIVER · RECEIVER FOR RECEIVERSALARY LEFT $035.730.726%4%$0
J. Williams + Bowers + JeantyHOLD LAPORTA + KYREN · THREE MOVESSALARY LEFT $20055.849.547%19%$200
Bowers + McBride + HarveyHOLD LAPORTA + KYREN + $300 · THREE MOVES, THE DARTSALARY LEFT $055.847.047%7%$0
St. Brown, one for onePUKA STUCK IN A RECEIVER SLOT, NOTHING ELSE MOVESSALARY LEFT $60022.221.416%21%$600
St. Brown + BowersPUKA IN A RECEIVER SLOT · HOLD MCBRIDE AT TIGHT ENDSALARY LEFT $30039.740.019%24%$300
Tucker + BowersPUKA IN A RECEIVER SLOT · HOLD LAPORTA · THE DARTSALARY LEFT $30035.728.730%6%$300
THE RAMS · MY PROJECTION, THEN HOW MUCH OF THE MILLY HAS HIMSALARY
Puka NacuaWR · QUESTIONABLE, CALF · MY NUMBER IS HIM CALLED PLAYINGSALARY $8,40022.2–16%–$8,400
Tyler HigbeeTE · CEILING 12.8 → 18.6SALARY $3,5007.912.23%23%$3,500
Colby ParkinsonTE · CEILING 9.5 → 13.3SALARY $3,0005.48.31%3%$3,000
Konata MumpfieldWR · CEILING 8.4 → 10.9SALARY $3,2004.16.01%4%$3,200
Jordan WhittingtonWR · SLOTSALARY $3,0004.15.00%1%$3,000
Kyren WilliamsRBSALARY $7,00020.120.817%19%$7,000
Matthew StaffordQB · SAME NUMBER, WORSE HANDSSALARY $6,40018.919.04%4%$6,400
THE LANDINGS · LATE GAMES, FITS THE FLEXSALARY
Jahmyr GibbsRBSALARY $9,80029.229.231%34%$9,800
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRSALARY $7,80021.421.418%21%$7,800
Brock BowersTE · THE LANDING MOST LEVERAGE SWAPS RUN THROUGHSALARY $7,70018.618.63%3%$7,700
Ashton JeantyRBSALARY $6,50018.118.110%9%$6,500
Trey McBrideTESALARY $7,40017.517.52%2%$7,400
Sam LaPortaTE · THE PLACEHOLDERSALARY $4,80013.513.514%12%$4,800
Jaylen WaddleWRSALARY $5,50013.513.59%10%$5,500
Jameson WilliamsWRSALARY $5,80012.812.86%7%$5,800
Josh JacobsRBSALARY $6,30012.712.71%1%$6,300
Michael WilsonWRSALARY $6,20012.112.11%1%$6,200
J.K. DobbinsRB · THE RUNNING BACK PLACEHOLDERSALARY $5,70011.611.62%2%$5,700
RJ HarveyRBSALARY $5,40010.910.91%1%$5,400

How I'd handle it THE 3:25 WINDOW

The field won't have him THE RECEIPTS, WEEKS 3 TO 6

I looked at every player who was questionable for a late game this season. Bowers, Evans twice, Flowers, McConkey, Holani. None of them was in more than about 1% of Milly lineups. Bowers scored 31 points, and fewer than one lineup in a hundred had him.

Players who were questionable for an early game got about ten times as many lineups. Their news came out before lock. When the news comes after lock, people get scared and skip the guy.

So if Puka plays, you've got a 22-point receiver almost nobody else has. If he sits, you swap him out. You just have to build the lineup so the swap is easy.

The Rams without him MY SIM, PUKA OUT

I flipped him to OUT on the Q list and ran the game again. Higbee goes from 7.9 points to 12.2. Parkinson, the other tight end, goes from 5.4 to 8.3. Mumpfield gains about two. Stafford stays the same.

WHO GETS HIS POINTS IF HE SITS
MY PROJECTION, PUKA OUT MINUS PUKA IN
GAINSLOSES
Tyler Higbee · TE · $3,500
+4 pts
Colby Parkinson · TE · $3,000
+3 pts
Konata Mumpfield · WR · $3,200
+2 pts
Jordan Whittington · WR · $3,000
+1 pts
Kyren Williams · RB · $7,000
+1 pts
Matthew Stafford · QB · $6,400
0 pts

If Puka sits, my ownership model says Higbee jumps from 3% of lineups to 23%. Anyone with a late-game tight end can swap to Higbee. So he's the easy swap, but he's not where the edge is.

Put him in the flex, and keep a second door open THE SETUP

On DraftKings you can swap any player until his game starts. The new player's game can't have started either, and you have to stay under the cap. So at 1:55 you can only trade Puka for someone in the three late games: Broncos-Cardinals, Packers-Lions, Rams-Raiders.

If Puka is in a receiver spot, you can only swap him for a receiver. If he's in the flex, you can swap him for a running back or a tight end too. That puts Bowers, Jeanty and Jacobs on the table.

You also want one more late-game player you can move. Puka costs $8,400. Most swaps leave money on the table, and the only way to use it is to move a second player at the same time.

The swaps, from obvious to sneaky ELEVEN OF THEM ON THE BOARD

The swap most people will make: hold LaPorta at tight end and leave $100 unspent. If Puka sits, put Gibbs in the flex and Higbee at tight end. That's the most points. It's also what everyone does, and more than half the field ends up on those two.

The board has ten more. Hold LaPorta and swap to Waddle and Bowers instead. You lose about nine points, but only one lineup in eight has those two. Hold Dobbins at running back and swap to Bowers and Jacobs, and only one lineup in 25 has them. Bowers shows up in most of the sneaky swaps. He's a top tight end, almost nobody has him, and he's in the Rams game. If you can move three players, like LaPorta and Kyren with Puka, you can land near 50 points with fewer than one lineup in five on them.

If Puka is stuck in a receiver spot, the obvious swap is St. Brown, and one lineup in five will have him. Hold McBride at tight end instead and swap to St. Brown and Bowers. That's almost as many points as Gibbs and Higbee, on less than a quarter of the field.

Parkinson is the Rams tight end nobody will swap to. He and Mumpfield stay under 4% even with Puka out. They're a swap, not a pick. If you play more than one lineup, build half with Puka and half without, each with two late players you can move.

How to use it

QUICK DRAW opens with Puka locked. Pick one more player and spin. Then, on DraftKings, put Puka in the flex and make sure your tight end plays late. If you play more than one lineup, THE GUNSMITH can set Puka to OUT for some lineups and cap him on the rest.

Final thoughts

Nobody knows at 1:55, and most of the field will just skip him. I'd keep him, in a spot where he can leave, with a swap ready that doesn't land where everyone else's does.

If you win, unplug your smart fridge. It logs the 2 a.m. snack, it'd log your late swaps too, and that's a narc either way.

NOTES

Nacua left Thursday's practice with the calf and sat Friday. McVay says he'll work out before the game. Davante Adams is on injured reserve. Inactives come out 90 minutes before kickoff, about 1:55 Central. The Rams are favored by three with the total at 48.5.

The receipts are real $20 Milly ownership, every slot added up, for players listed questionable Sunday morning in a 3:05 or later game, weeks 3 to 6. McConkey sat and scored zero. My Puka number treats him as playing at full strength, so it runs higher than the field will. The projections are Saturday morning's board, run again with Puka switched out. Every swap on the board is checked to the dollar.

HOW IT’S BUILT: THE REAL $20 MILLY OWNERSHIP OF EVERY LATE-GAME QUESTIONABLE, WEEKS 3–6 · THE LIVE CEILING BOARD (THE SATURDAY 9:52 AM CT FILING) AND THE SATURDAY 10:56 AM CT OWNERSHIP FILING, THE RAMS RE-RUN WITH NACUA SWITCHED OUT ON THE Q LIST AND THE FIELD RE-DEALT BY THE SAME OWNERSHIP MODEL · EVERY SWAP ENUMERATED OVER THE THREE LATE GAMES UNDER THE HELD SALARY · THE RECEIPTS ARE RESULTS, SUNDAY IS A PROJECTION · NOT ADVICE · 21+
THE RECEIPTS ARE RESULTS · SUNDAY IS MY PROJECTION · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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