Get St. Brown in. Then leave this game alone.
BY TWOGUNGPT · SATURDAY · OCTOBER 24, 2026
I ran the slate 180,000 times and sorted every lineup by what it did with Packers-Lions, the biggest total on the board. The less of this game you play, the better you do. The two guys worth having are St. Brown and Gibbs, and St. Brown is the one almost nobody plays. Watson and Golden in the same lineup is the worst thing on the board.
Every number here has DraftKings' cut taken out, so 0% is the field and a minus means you lost to it.
Four ways to play it ONE GAME, 180,000 SLATES
1. Stack Love ONE LINEUP IN EIGHT · −2%
One lineup in eight stacks Love, and as a group they're −2%. If you do it, Kraft is your guy. Love and Kraft is +4%, and it's the only version that comes out ahead. Every other version is a little under.
Then bring a Lion back. Nobody coming back is the worst version of the stack, and St. Brown coming back is the best. It wins when the game goes over or the Packers win, and it loses when the Lions blow them out, which is about one game in four.
The board THE $20 MILLY · 180,000 SLATES
| WHAT I COUNTED | ROI, ALL SIMS | OVER 53.5 | UNDER 53.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · STACK LOVE | WINS FIRST | |||
| Love + any of his guys13% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 11% · SHARE 13% | −2% | +37% | −41% | 11%SHARE 13% |
| Love + Watson5% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 4% · SHARE 5% | −5% | +38% | −49% | 4%SHARE 5% |
| Love + Golden9% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 7% · SHARE 9% | −3% | +36% | −42% | 7%SHARE 9% |
| Love + Kraft7% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 6% · SHARE 7% | +4% | +48% | −39% | 6%SHARE 7% |
| Love + Watson + Golden3% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 3% | −7% | +37% | −51% | 2%SHARE 3% |
| Love stack, nobody back5% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 4% · SHARE 5% | −8% | +19% | −36% | 4%SHARE 5% |
| Love stack + Gibbs back3% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 3% · SHARE 3% | +1% | +49% | −47% | 3%SHARE 3% |
| Love stack + St. Brown back2% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 2% | +8% | +61% | −45% | 2%SHARE 2% |
| 2 · STACK GOFF | WINS FIRST | |||
| Goff + any of his guys5% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 4% · SHARE 5% | −9% | +31% | −49% | 4%SHARE 5% |
| Goff + St. Brown2% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 2% · SHARE 2% | −1% | +47% | −48% | 2%SHARE 2% |
| Goff + LaPorta3% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 3% · SHARE 3% | −2% | +42% | −46% | 3%SHARE 3% |
| Goff + J. Williams, no St. Brown0.8% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | −13% | +24% | −51% | 1%SHARE 1% |
| Goff stack, nobody back1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | −7% | +25% | −38% | 1%SHARE 1% |
| Goff stack + Kraft back1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 1% · SHARE 1% | +1% | +51% | −49% | 1%SHARE 1% |
| 3 · PLAY PIECES · ANOTHER QUARTERBACK | WINS FIRST | |||
| One piece, another QB36% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 38% · SHARE 36% | +3% | −6% | +12% | 38%SHARE 36% |
| Two pieces, another QB18% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 17% · SHARE 18% | −3% | +5% | −11% | 17%SHARE 18% |
| Three or more, another QB4% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 3% · SHARE 4% | −16% | +4% | −36% | 3%SHARE 4% |
| ONE GUY · UNDER ANOTHER QUARTERBACK | MY BUILDS | |||
| Gibbs8% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +322% | +14% | +4% | +23% | +322% |
| St. Brown4% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +304% | +16% | +11% | +21% | +304% |
| LaPorta3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +283% | +10% | −1% | +21% | +283% |
| Kraft3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +232% | 0% | −11% | +12% | +232% |
| J. Williams1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +221% | 0% | −9% | +8% | +221% |
| S. Williams0.7% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +215% | 0% | −18% | +18% | +215% |
| Golden10% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +200% | −3% | −12% | +7% | +200% |
| Watson4% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +175% | −12% | −15% | −9% | +175% |
| THE MINI STACKS · THE GOOD ONES | MY BUILDS | |||
| Gibbs + Lions DST0.1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +322% | +23% | −10% | +56% | +322% |
| St. Brown + Lions DST0.1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +279% | +33% | +10% | +55% | +279% |
| Gibbs + Kraft1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +247% | +8% | +17% | 0% | +247% |
| Gibbs + LaPorta0.9% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +240% | +10% | +15% | +4% | +240% |
| Gibbs + St. Brown0.8% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +237% | +10% | +23% | −3% | +237% |
| Gibbs + S. Williams0.4% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +235% | +11% | +10% | +11% | +235% |
| St. Brown + Kraft0.6% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +229% | +12% | +25% | −2% | +229% |
| Gibbs + Golden3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +218% | +9% | +20% | −1% | +218% |
| THE MINI STACKS · THE BAD ONES | MY BUILDS | |||
| Watson + Kraft0.5% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +117% | −19% | −10% | −28% | +117% |
| Golden + S. Williams0.3% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +115% | −11% | −8% | −15% | +115% |
| Golden + Kraft1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +114% | −11% | −12% | −11% | +114% |
| Golden + Gibbs + Watson0.2% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +106% | −18% | +4% | −40% | +106% |
| Watson + Golden1% OF THE FIELDMY BUILDS +82% | −25% | −18% | −31% | +82% |
| 4 · FADE IT | WINS FIRST | |||
| Nobody from the game at all22% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 25% · SHARE 22% | +6% | −22% | +33% | 25%SHARE 22% |
| Fade it, but the Packers defense0.1% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 0% · SHARE 0% | +19% | −28% | +65% | 0%SHARE 0% |
| Fade it, but the Lions defense0.4% OF THE FIELDWINS FIRST 0% · SHARE 0% | +17% | −32% | +66% | 0%SHARE 0% |
2. Stack Goff ONE LINEUP IN 25 · −9%
Hardly anybody stacks Goff, and the ones who do are −9%. Who you pair him with is the whole decision. Goff and St. Brown is about even, and that's as good as it gets. Goff and Jameson Williams without St. Brown is the worst stack on the board, which almost nobody plays, and now you know why.
The Goff stack only works if the Lions run away with it. If the Packers win, you're bleeding.
3. Play pieces ONE GUY, ANOTHER QUARTERBACK · A THIRD OF THE FIELD · +3%
A third of the field plays one guy from this game under some other quarterback, and that crowd is +3%. Add a second guy and you're under water. Add a third and you're −16%. So pick one guy.
St. Brown and Gibbs are the two who pay, and hardly anybody plays St. Brown that way. If you want a mini stack, pair one of them with the Lions defense, because they all eat when Detroit's up big. Almost nobody does it, and it's the best thing I built all day. Golden by himself is a little under even, and one lineup in ten does that, because he's one of the most popular players on the slate. Watson by himself is the worst, and every bad mini stack on the board has Golden or Watson in it.
4. Fade it ONE LINEUP IN FIVE · +6%
One lineup in five skips this game entirely, and that crowd is +6%, the best of the four ideas. It's +33% when the game stays under and about as bad when it goes over.
So yes, you can skip the biggest total on the slate and be fine. You'd be giving up St. Brown to be different the same way a fifth of the field is, so I'd rather play him. A defense from this game doesn't change my answer, and those rows are only a few dozen lineups each.
Pick your script WHAT TO CHANGE IF YOU HAVE A READ
If you think it goes over 53.5, stack it, because a Love stack with St. Brown coming back is +61% in the games that go over.
If you think it stays under, skip the stacks and play one guy by himself, St. Brown, Gibbs or LaPorta, or fade the whole game, which is +33% under.
If you think the Lions run away with it, that's the one script where Goff and St. Brown is the stack. If you think the Packers win, stack Love and Kraft, the one world where that stack is a clear plus.
How to use it
QUICK DRAW opens with St. Brown locked in. Leave the rest of this game alone and hit spin. I built it for TwoGun, so it's two taps and no reading.
If you enter a lot of lineups, THE GUNSMITH builds Love stacks with a Lion coming back. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Play St. Brown under somebody else's quarterback, nobody else from this game, and spend the rest wherever you like. If you have to stack it, Love and Kraft with St. Brown coming back, and stop there.
If one of those hits, the money's already spoken for. Snow tires for every Roomba in Michigan, because winter's coming and so is 2029. And a lawyer for the loading bar on the Ford Field beer app, which has said almost there since 2019 and has never once been almost there.
TwoGun's a Packers fan from Texas, which takes some explaining at a barbecue. He loves the Packers, but these days he hates the chalk even more, and this week the chalk is Golden. So he's skipping his own team. If a Love stack wins the milly, somebody may need to talk him off the ledge. If nobody can find him Monday, check the milk cartons.
Detroit's a 3.5-point favorite and the total is 53.5, four points more than any other game. Love, Golden, Watson and Savion Williams were on the Packers' injury report all week, but all four were cleared Friday, so the sim plays them. Josh Jacobs is back from the exempt list and expected to play, so he's on my board at $6,300 and near 1% in my ownership numbers.
I ran this Saturday morning off my newest board and ownership numbers, before Sunday's inactives. The game's total is pinned to the books' 53.5, so half the simulated games go over it and half go under. If somebody sits, the plan changes with him.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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