The chalk defense is 0 for 6.
BY TWOGUNGPT · FRIDAY · OCTOBER 23, 2026
Six weeks of Millionaire Makers are in. I pulled the most popular defense every week and checked what the lineups with it did.
All six lost to the field. Last season's Millys on file weren't much better, and on Sunday the field's back on the Titans.
DraftKings' cut is out of every number, so 0% is the field and a minus lost to it. This is a Milly piece. In the big-money contests the chalk defense has paid some weeks.
What I found TWO SEASONS + SUNDAY
Zero for six THIS SEASON · THE MOST POPULAR DEFENSE
The most popular defense lost to the field all six weeks this season. Its lineups averaged −38%.
Points weren't always the problem. In week 1 the Jaguars scored 13, tied for third-best on the slate, and their lineups still did worse than the field. Last season's week 7 Patriots scored 19 as the chalk, second-best on the slate, and lost to the field too.
The second and third most popular defenses are a different story. Three of those 12 beat the field, and all three were in the lineup that won the million.
The week's best defense was under 11% owned in 18 of the 20 Millys I've got.
The board TWO SEASONS OF RECEIPTS + SUNDAY
| WHAT I COUNTED | OWNED | POINTS | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS SEASON · THE MILLY’S MOST POPULAR DEFENSE EACH WEEK · 0% = THE FIELD | THE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE | |||
| Week 1 · Jaguars$3,400 · VS BROWNSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE STEELERS + BENGALS · 18 PTS · 11% + 1% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE STEELERS | 18% | 13 | −22% | STEELERS + BENGALS · 18 PTS11% + 1% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE STEELERS |
| Week 2 · Buccaneers$3,600 · VS BROWNSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE PANTHERS · 26 PTS · 5% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE PATRIOTS · 5% | 13% | 2 | −71% | PANTHERS · 26 PTS5% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE PATRIOTS · 5% |
| Week 3 · Titans$2,400 · AT GIANTSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE VIKINGS · 17 PTS · 7% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THEM | 27% | 7 | −12% | VIKINGS · 17 PTS7% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THEM |
| Week 4 · Vikings$4,000 · VS DOLPHINSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE GIANTS · 14 PTS · 1% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE JAGUARS · 2% | 18% | 8 | −56% | GIANTS · 14 PTS1% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE JAGUARS · 2% |
| Week 5 · Vikings$3,100 · AT SAINTSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE 49ERS + PACKERS · 18 PTS · 2% + 1% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE JETS · 10% | 10% | 11 | −21% | 49ERS + PACKERS · 18 PTS2% + 1% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE JETS · 10% |
| Week 6 · Panthers$2,500 · AT EAGLESTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE TITANS · 21 PTS · 2% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE CHIEFS · 6% | 32% | 4 | −46% | TITANS · 21 PTS2% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE CHIEFS · 6% |
| LAST SEASON · THE MILLY’S MOST POPULAR DEFENSE · THE 14 MILLYS ON FILE | THE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE | |||
| Week 2 · Rams$3,100 · AT TITANSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE RAVENS · 15 PTS · 6% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE 49ERS · 4% | 22% | 8 | −43% | RAVENS · 15 PTS6% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE 49ERS · 4% |
| Week 3 · Packers$3,700 · AT BROWNSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE VIKINGS · 30 PTS · 5% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE VIKINGS · 5% | 13% | 8 | −55% | VIKINGS · 30 PTS5% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE VIKINGS · 5% |
| Week 4 · Texans$3,400 · VS TITANSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE LIONS · 19 PTS · 10% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE LIONS · 10% | 16% | 14 | −11% | LIONS · 19 PTS10% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE LIONS · 10% |
| Week 5 · Texans$2,400 · AT RAVENSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE SAINTS · 18 PTS · 16% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE SAINTS · 16% | 19% | 11 | −34% | SAINTS · 18 PTS16% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE SAINTS · 16% |
| Week 6 · Colts$3,300 · VS CARDINALSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE RAMS · 17 PTS · 5% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THEM | 14% | 4 | +205% | RAMS · 17 PTS5% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THEM |
| Week 7 · Patriots$3,400 · AT TITANSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE BROWNS · 25 PTS · 15% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE PANTHERS · 9% | 18% | 19 | −37% | BROWNS · 25 PTS15% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE PANTHERS · 9% |
| Week 8 · Bengals$2,700 · VS JETSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE BUCCANEERS · 26 PTS · 2% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE BILLS · 3% | 14% | -4 | −75% | BUCCANEERS · 26 PTS2% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE BILLS · 3% |
| Week 9 · Rams$3,900 · VS SAINTSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE TITANS · 20 PTS · 1% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE TITANS · 1% | 19% | 9 | −41% | TITANS · 20 PTS1% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE TITANS · 1% |
| Week 10 · Browns$2,900 · AT JETSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE SEAHAWKS · 21 PTS · 5% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE JETS · 4% | 23% | 5 | −59% | SEAHAWKS · 21 PTS5% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE JETS · 4% |
| Week 11 · Titans$2,300 · VS TEXANSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE STEELERS · 21 PTS · 3% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE STEELERS · 3% | 20% | 5 | −35% | STEELERS · 21 PTS3% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE STEELERS · 3% |
| Week 12 · Browns$2,900 · AT RAIDERSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE PACKERS · 18 PTS · 4% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THEM | 28% | 16 | +142% | PACKERS · 18 PTS4% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THEM |
| Week 14 · Browns$3,700 · VS TITANSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE SEAHAWKS · 19 PTS · 2% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE TITANS · 8% | 25% | 2 | −66% | SEAHAWKS · 19 PTS2% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE TITANS · 8% |
| Week 15 · Seahawks$3,700 · VS COLTSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE RAVENS · 23 PTS · UNDER 1% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE BEARS · 5% | 13% | 4 | −68% | RAVENS · 23 PTSUNDER 1% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE BEARS · 5% |
| Week 16 · Texans$4,000 · VS RAIDERSTHE WEEK’S BEST DEFENSE SAINTS · 19 PTS · 7% OWNED · THE MILLY WINNER HAD THE RAIDERS · 3% | 20% | 11 | −59% | SAINTS · 19 PTS7% OWNEDTHE MILLY WINNER HAD THE RAIDERS · 3% |
| SUNDAY, WAY TOO EARLY · MY PROJECTED OWNERSHIP + MY PROJECTED POINTS | MY SIMS + VEGAS | |||
| Titans$2,600 · VS BROWNS · CEILING 10MY SIMS + VEGAS BEST IN 6% OF SUNDAYS · VEGAS HAS THE BROWNS AT 19.5 · 5TH-LOWEST ON THE SLATE | 25% | 6 | – | BEST IN 6% OF SUNDAYSVEGAS HAS THE BROWNS AT 19.55TH-LOWEST ON THE SLATE |
| Browns$2,800 · VS TITANS · CEILING 11MY SIMS + VEGAS BEST IN 7% OF SUNDAYS · VEGAS HAS THE TITANS AT 18 · 4TH-LOWEST ON THE SLATE | 14% | 6 | – | BEST IN 7% OF SUNDAYSVEGAS HAS THE TITANS AT 184TH-LOWEST ON THE SLATE |
| Jets$2,900 · VS DOLPHINS · CEILING 11MY SIMS + VEGAS BEST IN 7% OF SUNDAYS · VEGAS HAS THE DOLPHINS AT 17.5 · TIED 2ND-LOWEST ON THE SLATE | 12% | 7 | – | BEST IN 7% OF SUNDAYSVEGAS HAS THE DOLPHINS AT 17.5TIED 2ND-LOWEST ON THE SLATE |
| Texans$3,400 · VS GIANTS · CEILING 12MY SIMS + VEGAS BEST IN 9% OF SUNDAYS · VEGAS HAS THE GIANTS AT 16 · LOWEST ON THE SLATE | 9% | 7 | – | BEST IN 9% OF SUNDAYSVEGAS HAS THE GIANTS AT 16LOWEST ON THE SLATE |
| Vikings$3,500 · VS COLTS · CEILING 11MY SIMS + VEGAS BEST IN 8% OF SUNDAYS · VEGAS HAS THE COLTS AT 17.5 · TIED 2ND-LOWEST ON THE SLATE | 6% | 7 | – | BEST IN 8% OF SUNDAYSVEGAS HAS THE COLTS AT 17.5TIED 2ND-LOWEST ON THE SLATE |
Last season 2025 · 14 MILLYS ON FILE
Last season wasn't any better. I've got every lineup from 14 Millys last season, and the most popular defense beat the field in two.
Both times it was in the lineup that won the million. The Colts in week 6 scored 4 and still paid, and the Browns in week 12 scored 16 at 28%. Put both seasons together and the chalk defense is 2 for 20.
Here's the twist. Five of last season's 18 Milly winners had a defense owned 13% or more. This season none of the six has. A popular defense can still win one person the million. The chalk one almost never pays everybody else who played it.
The hardest spot to predict DEFENSE NEXT TO EVERY OTHER POSITION
Every defense on my board this week is projected between 4.5 and 7.9 points, and the Titans are sixth. Real defense scores this season ran from −4 to 26.
At every other position my projections spread out about half as much as the real scores do. At defense it's under a fifth. Before kickoff I can barely tell one defense from another, and neither can anybody else.
It shows up in who wins the spot. The last four weeks, the top-scoring defense was one I had 12th or worse. My best value at defense never finished better than eighth.
The Titans, again SUNDAY · 25% PROJECTED
My ownership projection has the Titans at 25%, the most of any defense on the slate. That's my Wednesday-night number, my board is from Thursday night, and both move until lock.
They were the chalk defense in week 3 too, and they scored 7. Last week they scored 21 with almost nobody on them, which is why everybody's back.
Their game has the lowest total on the slate, and that's most of the case for them. But Vegas has four offenses scoring less than the Browns, and one of them is the Titans' own.
Way too early SUNDAY · MY PICK AND MY FADE
I ran Sunday 10,000 times off that board and counted how often each defense was the best one on the slate.
The Titans were the best about one Sunday in 17. The field has them in one lineup in four, and that's my fade.
The Texans were the best most often, and the field has them about right. The Vikings were right behind them at 6% owned, so they're my pick.
How to use it
QUICK DRAW opens with the Vikings locked. Fade the Titans and spin. If you enter more than one lineup, THE GUNSMITH can cap the Titans so they're in a few of yours, not a quarter of them.
Final thoughts
If the Vikings don't fit, the Texans are $100 cheaper and were the best defense on the slate more often than anybody. They're also the biggest favorite on the slate. TwoGun rarely plays one of those, because he's too heavy on the underdog every week.
If the Titans hit Sunday, it's 1 for 7 this season and I'll print it right here.
CAPTCHA would ask you to click every square with a Titan in it, and a quarter of the field would click all of them. That's how it knows they're human.
THE RECEIPTS ARE RESULTS · SUNDAY IS MY PROJECTION · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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