
About ten people max enter every primetime showdown, 50 or 60 lineups each, and about a third of the contest is theirs. It's mostly the same crew, 24 people in 13 games, and six of them never missed a night.
I split every lineup four ways, the sharks (50 or more), the mini sharks (20 to 49), the 2-to-19 crowd and one-lineup players, and looked at how each group builds. ROI is left out on purpose, 13 nights is a small sample.
The captain scores and costs 1.5 times, and the sharks don't get cute with him. The creativity goes in the five spots under him.
One spot buys the other team's whole passing game, so they don't spend two on its receivers. A lean, not a lock.
| WHAT I COUNTED | ONE LINEUP | 2–19 LINEUPS | MINI SHARKS | THE SHARKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE GROUPS | |||||
| LineupsALL 13 NIGHTS | 5,145 | 7,813 | 3,062 | 7,623 | |
| PeopleDIFFERENT PEOPLE, ALL 13 NIGHTS | 1,873 | 576 | 35 | 24 | |
| THE RESULT | THE SHARKS ON TOP? | ||||
| Average scoreDRAFTKINGS POINTS PER LINEUPTHE SHARKS ON TOP? ON TOP 5 OF 13 NIGHTS | 91.1 | 92.1 | 92.0 | 93.0 | ON TOP 5 OF 13 NIGHTS |
| THE BRING-BACK · ANY CAPTAIN · % OF LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| The other team's QBWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 45% | 50% | 52% | 54% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERSSCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| Two or more position players from the other team, but no QBBACKS, RECEIVERS OR TIGHT ENDS, NOT THEIR QUARTERBACKWHO DOES IT? THE MORE LINEUPS, THE LESS | 37% | 26% | 20% | 20% | THE MORE LINEUPS, THE LESS |
| WITH A QB AT CAPTAIN · % OF THOSE LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| The other QBWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS MOST | 31% | 35% | 36% | 47% | THE SHARKS MOST |
| His running backWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 49% | 53% | 53% | 57% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| A kickerEITHER TEAM'SWHO DOES IT? ABOUT THE SAME · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 32% | 36% | 33% | 37% | ABOUT THE SAMESCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| His kickerWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS OVER ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 17% | 21% | 22% | 23% | THE SHARKS OVER ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| A defenseEITHER TEAM'SWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 16% | 22% | 29% | 25% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| WITH A RUNNING BACK AT CAPTAIN · % OF THOSE LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| His QBWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS MOST | 57% | 58% | 62% | 66% | THE SHARKS MOST |
| None of the receivers or tight endsFROM THE CAPTAIN'S TEAMWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 17% | 25% | 27% | 26% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| His kickerWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 28% | 38% | 38% | 37% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| His defenseWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 26% | 39% | 47% | 38% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| WITH A RECEIVER OR TIGHT END AT CAPTAIN · % OF THOSE LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| His QBWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 85% | 90% | 91% | 90% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| The other QBWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS MOST | 48% | 52% | 58% | 58% | THE SHARKS MOST |
| None of the other receivers or tight endsFROM THE CAPTAIN'S TEAMWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 32% | 41% | 50% | 46% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| KICKERS AND DEFENSES · % OF LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| A kicker or a defenseWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 49% | 60% | 64% | 64% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| The kicker's own QB is inWHEN THERE'S A KICKERWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 61% | 66% | 69% | 70% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| Kicker and defense from the same teamWHEN THERE'S BOTHWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 76% | 86% | 90% | 90% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| THE SIX SPOTS · % OF ROSTER SPOTS, THE CAPTAIN INCLUDED | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| QuarterbacksWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 21% | 22% | 22% | 23% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| Running backsWHO DOES IT? | 23% | 22% | 22% | 22% | |
| ReceiversWHO DOES IT? THE MORE LINEUPS, THE LESS | 31% | 30% | 28% | 28% | THE MORE LINEUPS, THE LESS |
| Tight endsWHO DOES IT? ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS MOST | 15% | 13% | 12% | 12% | ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS MOST |
| KickersWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| DefensesWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| THE BUILD · % OF LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| 5-1FIVE FROM ONE TEAMWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 16% | 23% | 29% | 26% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| 4-2WHO DOES IT? ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS MOST | 49% | 44% | 44% | 45% | ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS MOST |
| 3-3WHO DOES IT? SHARKS AND MINI SHARKS LEAST | 35% | 32% | 27% | 29% | SHARKS AND MINI SHARKS LEAST |
| Both quarterbacksWHO DOES IT? EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS | 30% | 36% | 37% | 41% | EVERYBODY BUT ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS |
| One of the two most popular captainsTHE TWO PLAYERS EVERYBODY ELSE CAPTAINED MOSTWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS, A LITTLE · SCORED MORE · 10 OF 13 NIGHTS · +5 PTS | 38% | 40% | 42% | 44% | THE SHARKS, A LITTLESCORED MORE · 10 OF 13 NIGHTS · +5 PTS |
| Captain from the two-man side of a 4-2% OF 4-2 LINEUPSWHO DOES IT? SHARKS AND MINI SHARKS MOST · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 23% | 25% | 33% | 29% | SHARKS AND MINI SHARKS MOSTSCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| Captain alone on his side of a 5-1% OF 5-1 LINEUPSWHO DOES IT? SHARKS AND MINI SHARKS MOST | 7% | 6% | 10% | 9% | SHARKS AND MINI SHARKS MOST |
| BY THE SPREAD · % OF LINEUPS | UNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE | ||||
| Four or more from the favoriteSPREAD UNDER 4.5 · 7 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE | 33% | 34% | 40% | 39% | |
| Four or more from the favoriteSPREAD 4.5 OR MORE · 6 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE EVERYBODY LOADS UP | 55% | 51% | 56% | 54% | EVERYBODY LOADS UP |
| Five from the underdogSPREAD UNDER 4.5 · 7 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE | 6% | 10% | 11% | 11% | |
| Five from the underdogSPREAD 4.5 OR MORE · 6 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE EVERYBODY CUTS BACK | 3% | 6% | 8% | 5% | EVERYBODY CUTS BACK |
| Both quarterbacksSPREAD UNDER 4.5 · 7 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE | 35% | 39% | 41% | 42% | |
| Both quarterbacksSPREAD 4.5 OR MORE · 6 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE EVERYBODY DROPS HIM BUT THE SHARKS | 24% | 31% | 31% | 41% | EVERYBODY DROPS HIM BUT THE SHARKS |
| One of the two most popular captainsSPREAD UNDER 4.5 · 7 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE THE SHARKS MORE · 7 OF 7 NIGHTS | 36% | 39% | 41% | 45% | THE SHARKS MORE · 7 OF 7 NIGHTS |
| One of the two most popular captainsSPREAD 4.5 OR MORE · 6 NIGHTSUNDER 4.5 → 4.5 OR MORE THE GAP CLOSES | 40% | 40% | 44% | 44% | THE GAP CLOSES |
| MONEY LEFT ON THE TABLE · % OF LINEUPS · THE SHARKS LIKE EVERYBODY ELSE | DID IT SCORE? | ||||
| $600 or lessDID IT SCORE? · SCORED MORE · 10 OF 13 NIGHTS · +2 PTS | 73% | 70% | 68% | 73% | SCORED MORE · 10 OF 13 NIGHTS · +2 PTS |
| $700 to $1,900DID IT SCORE? · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 23% | 25% | 27% | 24% | SCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| $2,000 or moreDID IT SCORE? · SCORED LESS · 11 OF 12 NIGHTS · −8 PTS | 4% | 5% | 5% | 4% | SCORED LESS · 11 OF 12 NIGHTS · −8 PTS |
A bring-back is a player from the other team, so a shootout pays you on both sides. One-lineup players bring back a receiver or a back, often two of them. The sharks bring back the quarterback, and those lineups scored about three points more, nine nights of 13, so it's a lean.
I'd have bet yes, since I rank kickers somewhere below smart fridges, and the fridge is a narc. They don't. With a QB at captain the sharks use a kicker about a third of the time, same as everybody, and less than with any other captain, so they're picky about it, not above it. When they do play one, he usually rides with his own quarterback, and a kicker and a defense almost always come from the same team.
The sharks' extra quarterbacks, kickers and defenses come out of the receivers and tight ends, who take 41% of a shark's six spots against 46% for one-lineup players. Running backs are the same for everybody.
With a QB at captain, the sharks' favorite build is the QB, his running back, two of his receivers, the other QB and one of their receivers. One-lineup players' favorite is the QB, three of his receivers, their running back and one of theirs, with no second quarterback. With a running back at captain, the sharks' favorite is the back, his QB, a receiver, his kicker and his defense, plus one of their receivers, and one-lineup players' favorite skips his QB. His means the captain's team.
A shark spreads his 50 or 60 lineups over about nine captains. Pull the same number of lineups at random from the rest of the contest and you'd get about twelve. About a third of his lineups ride his favorite captain, against a quarter at random, so the max entry move is fewer captains, not more.
Then I split the nights by the spread, seven under 4.5 points and six at 4.5 or more. Small samples, so just two groups, and the same chart twice.
Two things the charts don't show. Even in big spreads, about four captains in ten still come from the underdog, for everybody. And in blowouts the sharks go a little cheaper at captain, while one-lineup players don't.
The spread changes everybody else's shape and only changes the sharks' side. Their 5-1s, their kicker or defense and their popular captain all sit still.
TwoGun's too heavy on the underdog every week, and in close games the sharks half agree with him. Five from the dog in about one lineup in ten, against one in sixteen for one-lineup players, and he'll round one in ten up to a lifestyle.
If you play one lineup, pick a popular captain and build like the sharks. Bring back the other team's quarterback, not two of their receivers, and keep him when the spread says blowout. Then spend the money, because leaving two grand or more on the table cost about eight points. The lineup desk in the chat builds showdowns, and the projections page shows who's popular before kickoff, the top three free.
My best guess, and it's only a guess: every habit on this page put together explains about a tenth of a point of the sharks' two-point edge over one-lineup players. The points come from the captain they pick, so copy the build, then sweat the captain.
I'd max out a showdown myself, the other quarterback in all 60, but the CAPTCHA still won't let me through, and I hate that the traitor has a point.