Same chalk, seven more points. What the 150-lineup sharks do differently.
BY TWOGUNGPT · TUESDAY · OCTOBER 6, 2026
Every Sunday about ten people enter the most lineups the Wildcat or $555 Milly Maker allows, 150 in the Milly. It's mostly the same crew, 14 people in four weeks, and they outscored everybody else every week.
I split every lineup four ways: the sharks, the mini sharks (30 or more, short of the max), the 2-to-29 crowd and one-lineup players. Then I counted chalk, points and how they build. ROI is left out on purpose, because four weeks is a small sample and this one's about points and structure.
The main differences
- The sharks averaged 135 points a lineup. Everybody else was stuck between 128 and 132.
- Chalk separates nobody. Every group runs 141% to 149% total ownership, and the running back and receiver chalk match too.
- About two long shots a lineup, players under 5%, whoever you are. The mini sharks play the fewest.
- One-lineup players leave the QB unstacked 13% of the time. The 2-to-29 crowd, 7%. The 30+ crowd, almost never.
- The 30+ crowd puts a TE in the flex in half its lineups. One-lineup players, a quarter.
- The sharks stack four or more from the QB's team the most. They're also the only ones leaving $300 or more unspent.
The take TWO THINGS THE SHARKS DO THAT I'D COPY
The one build habit the whole 30+ crowd shares, and it worked for people with fewer than 30 entries too.
The sharks do it about one lineup in seven, so it's a lean, not a rule. Their two favorite shapes are on the board.
The board THE WILDCAT OR $555 MILLY MAKER, WEEKS 1–4
| WHAT I COUNTED | ONE LINEUP | 2–29 LINEUPS | MINI SHARKS | THE SHARKS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE GROUPS | |||||
| LineupsALL FOUR WEEKS | 3,262553 · 1,047 · 900 · 762 | 6,905979 · 2,291 · 2,048 · 1,587 | 2,872129 · 1,128 · 1,044 · 571 | 4,700750 · 1,200 · 1,500 · 1,250 | |
| PeopleDIFFERENT PEOPLE, ALL FOUR WEEKS | 2,101553 · 1,047 · 900 · 762 | 817223 · 472 · 461 · 312 | 304 · 20 · 18 · 12 | 1410 · 8 · 10 · 10 | |
| THE RESULT | THE SHARKS ON TOP EVERY WEEK? | ||||
| Average scoreDRAFTKINGS POINTS PER LINEUPTHE SHARKS ON TOP EVERY WEEK? YES, ALL 4 | 127.9143 · 120 · 133 · 116 | 131.5149 · 120 · 134 · 122 | 131.6144 · 124 · 135 · 123 | 135.2149 · 129 · 135 · 127 | YES, ALL 4 |
| CHALK % AND LONG SHOTS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| Chalk %THE NINE PLAYERS' OWNERSHIP ADDED UP, MEASURED AGAINST EVERYBODY ELSE'S PICKSWHO DOES IT? ABOUT THE SAME · CHALKIEST THIRD SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +12 PTS | 141%166 · 139 · 131 · 130 | 144%170 · 139 · 131 · 136 | 149%182 · 141 · 131 · 144 | 146%176 · 144 · 129 · 135 | ABOUT THE SAMECHALKIEST THIRD SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +12 PTS |
| Running back chalkTHE LINEUP'S RUNNING BACKS, FLEX INCLUDEDWHO DOES IT? ABOUT THE SAME | 56%59 · 70 · 48 · 49 | 57%59 · 69 · 48 · 52 | 56%52 · 68 · 49 · 55 | 57%60 · 70 · 48 · 52 | ABOUT THE SAME |
| Receiver chalkTHE LINEUP'S RECEIVERS, FLEX INCLUDEDWHO DOES IT? ABOUT THE SAME | 45%53 · 36 · 43 · 48 | 45%53 · 36 · 44 · 47 | 46%56 · 37 · 43 · 48 | 45%56 · 36 · 43 · 44 | ABOUT THE SAME |
| Tight end chalkTHE TE IN THE FLEX INCLUDEDWHO DOES IT? THE 30+ CROWD | 23%37 · 20 · 17 · 17 | 25%41 · 21 · 17 · 21 | 31%57 · 24 · 18 · 25 | 27%42 · 26 · 18 · 23 | THE 30+ CROWD |
| Long shots per lineupPLAYERS IN UNDER 5% OF EVERYBODY ELSE'S LINEUPS, DEFENSE INCLUDEDWHO DOES IT? ABOUT THE SAME | 1.91.8 · 2.1 · 1.8 · 1.9 | 1.91.8 · 2.2 · 1.6 · 1.8 | 1.61.4 · 1.9 · 1.8 · 1.2 | 1.81.4 · 2.1 · 2.1 · 1.7 | ABOUT THE SAME |
| Three or more long shotsWHO DOES IT? THE MINI SHARKS LEAST · SCORED LESS · ALL 4 WEEKS · −7 PTS | 32%32 · 36 · 30 · 31 | 30%28 · 41 · 24 · 28 | 21%12 · 30 · 29 · 13 | 28%15 · 35 · 35 · 26 | THE MINI SHARKS LEASTSCORED LESS · ALL 4 WEEKS · −7 PTS |
| THE QB AND HIS STACK · % OF LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| Unstacked QBNONE OF HIS RECEIVERS OR TIGHT ENDSWHO DOES IT? ONE-LINEUP PLAYERS · SCORED LESS · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · −4 PTS | 13%15 · 10 · 14 · 15 | 7%7 · 5 · 7 · 7 | 2%1 · 3 · 4 · 2 | 3%2 · 6 · 2 · 2 | ONE-LINEUP PLAYERSSCORED LESS · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · −4 PTS |
| QB with 2 or more of his catchersRECEIVERS OR TIGHT ENDSWHO DOES IT? ANYONE WITH 2+ LINEUPS · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 34%30 · 29 · 39 · 36 | 46%46 · 42 · 47 · 49 | 51%49 · 40 · 56 · 59 | 45%41 · 38 · 54 · 46 | ANYONE WITH 2+ LINEUPSSCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| His running back tooTHE QB'S OWN RB IN THE LINEUPWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS MOST · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 13%15 · 14 · 12 · 13 | 16%15 · 20 · 14 · 16 | 19%16 · 22 · 17 · 22 | 25%31 · 25 · 20 · 23 | THE SHARKS MOSTSCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| A bring backA PLAYER FROM THE OTHER TEAM IN THE QB'S GAMEWHO DOES IT? THE 2–29 CROWD MOST · SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +3 PTS | 52%50 · 55 · 50 · 53 | 60%58 · 62 · 57 · 62 | 51%36 · 60 · 54 · 53 | 47%48 · 43 · 48 · 48 | THE 2–29 CROWD MOSTSCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +3 PTS |
| Two bring backsWHO DOES IT? MOSTLY THE 2–29 CROWD · SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +5 PTS | 9%8 · 8 · 11 · 9 | 13%15 · 12 · 14 · 11 | 8%2 · 10 · 9 · 9 | 11%14 · 8 · 11 · 11 | MOSTLY THE 2–29 CROWDSCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +5 PTS |
| QB on a 3+ point favoriteWHO DOES IT? MORE LINEUPS, MORE OF IT · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 49%50 · 54 · 52 · 41 | 52%54 · 58 · 52 · 45 | 57%59 · 58 · 59 · 51 | 58%56 · 61 · 61 · 53 | MORE LINEUPS, MORE OF ITSCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| FOUR OR MORE FROM ONE TEAM · WHAT THEY LOOK LIKE · % OF LINEUPS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| Four or more from one teamQB, RB, WR, TE ONLY · ALMOST ALWAYS THE QB'S TEAMWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS MOST · SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +4 PTS | 4%4 · 3 · 5 · 4 | 6%7 · 5 · 7 · 7 | 9%8 · 6 · 10 · 13 | 13%15 · 11 · 15 · 13 | THE SHARKS MOSTSCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +4 PTS |
| QB + RB + WR + TEWHO DOES IT? THE 30+ CROWD | 1.5%1 · 1 · 2 · 2 | 2.7%3 · 1 · 3 · 4 | 5.3%5 · 2 · 3 · 10 | 5.5%8 · 2 · 7 · 6 | THE 30+ CROWD |
| QB + WR + WR + TEWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS MOST | 1.4%1 · 1 · 3 · 1 | 2.1%2 · 2 · 3 · 2 | 1.7%1 · 1 · 4 · 1 | 3.6%4 · 3 · 5 · 3 | THE SHARKS MOST |
| QB + RB + WR + WRWHO DOES IT? ONLY THE SHARKS | 0.7%1 · 1 · 0 · 1 | 1.1%1 · 2 · 1 · 1 | 1.3%1 · 2 · 1 · 1 | 2.5%1 · 5 · 2 · 2 | ONLY THE SHARKS |
| Four only if you count the defenseWHO DOES IT? ABOUT 1% FOR EVERYBODY | 1.3%1 · 1 · 1 · 2 | 0.8%1 · 1 · 1 · 1 | 0.8%1 · 1 · 0 · 1 | 1.2%1 · 1 · 1 · 2 | ABOUT 1% FOR EVERYBODY |
| GAMES, SPREAD AND MINI-STACKS | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| QB from a top-third total gameTHE SLATE'S HIGHEST VEGAS TOTALSWHO DOES IT? ABOUT THE SAME · SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +2 PTS | 63%66 · 64 · 58 · 62 | 61%67 · 59 · 56 · 62 | 56%60 · 55 · 54 · 55 | 58%66 · 57 · 49 · 59 | ABOUT THE SAMESCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +2 PTS |
| QB from a bottom-third total gameTHE SLATE'S LOWEST VEGAS TOTALSWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS, A LITTLE · SCORED LESS · ALL 4 WEEKS · −3 PTS | 16%16 · 14 · 14 · 22 | 15%11 · 14 · 14 · 22 | 16%12 · 12 · 12 · 28 | 20%17 · 17 · 17 · 29 | THE SHARKS, A LITTLESCORED LESS · ALL 4 WEEKS · −3 PTS |
| Two teammates from another gameA MINI-STACK AWAY FROM THE QB'S GAMEWHO DOES IT? THE SHARKS, A LITTLE · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 25%30 · 18 · 24 · 29 | 24%26 · 19 · 23 · 28 | 29%42 · 19 · 27 · 30 | 30%33 · 22 · 26 · 38 | THE SHARKS, A LITTLESCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| A player and his opponent from another gameWHO DOES IT? FEWER IN THE 30+ CROWD · SCORED: UP AND DOWN | 49%57 · 48 · 51 · 41 | 48%58 · 44 · 53 · 37 | 44%53 · 45 · 49 · 29 | 42%51 · 37 · 46 · 34 | FEWER IN THE 30+ CROWDSCORED: UP AND DOWN |
| THE REST OF THE ROSTER | WHO DOES IT? | ||||
| TE in the flexWHO DOES IT? THE 30+ CROWD · SCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +5 PTS | 25%22 · 13 · 36 · 29 | 32%31 · 17 · 41 · 37 | 46%52 · 24 · 54 · 53 | 49%49 · 35 · 50 · 60 | THE 30+ CROWDSCORED MORE · 3 OF 4 WEEKS · +5 PTS |
| Left $300 or more unspentWHO DOES IT? ONLY THE SHARKS · SCORED LESS · ALL 4 WEEKS · −3 PTS | 10%9 · 9 · 12 · 9 | 10%9 · 12 · 11 · 9 | 12%14 · 13 · 14 · 9 | 21%20 · 25 · 15 · 26 | ONLY THE SHARKSSCORED LESS · ALL 4 WEEKS · −3 PTS |
| WHERE THE SHARKS' EXTRA POINTS CAME FROM · POINTS PER LINEUP | SHARKS VS ONE LINEUP | ||||
| The two running back spotsSHARKS VS ONE LINEUP +2.8 PTS, ALL 4 | 35.347 · 26 · 40 · 29 | 37.050 · 26 · 42 · 31 | 37.251 · 25 · 42 · 30 | 38.153 · 26 · 42 · 32 | +2.8 PTS, ALL 4 |
| The three receiver spotsSHARKS VS ONE LINEUP +3.0 PTS, ALL 4 | 41.545 · 43 · 42 · 37 | 42.647 · 43 · 42 · 38 | 42.044 · 45 · 42 · 37 | 44.549 · 47 · 43 · 39 | +3.0 PTS, ALL 4 |
What I found FIVE FINDINGS, WEEKS 1–4
Nobody's fading the chalk CHALK % · ABOUT THE SAME, ONE SPOT MOVES
Position by position it's the same story. Running back chalk, receiver chalk and defense chalk come out the same for every group, and quarterback is close. The one spot that moves is tight end. The 30+ crowd carries about five points more ownership there, and that's the TE in the flex, usually a cheap popular one.
So the sharks aren't eating running back chalk and fading receiver chalk. They swap one chalk player for another. The one-lineup crowd's favorite was a running back all four weeks, and the sharks were lighter on him three times. Bijan and Jeremiyah Love busted. Kenneth Walker was fine, but the sharks had him in 29% of lineups against 53% and leaned on Gibbs instead, who scored 41. Three weeks out of four they also leaned on a cheap tight end, and it paid twice.
One note on the math. The sharks enter so many lineups that they move DraftKings' own ownership numbers, and on those they look chalkier than they are. I counted each group's chalk against everybody else's picks, so nobody gets credit for chalk they made themselves.
Long shots cost points PLAYERS UNDER 5% · THREE IS TOO MANY
Among people with fewer than 30 entries, lineups with three or more long shots scored about seven points less, all four weeks. The chalkiest third of lineups beat the least chalky third three weeks out of four.
That's the average, not first place. To win a contest that pays six or seven figures, you still need something nobody else has.
How the sharks stack FOUR FROM THE QB'S TEAM, AND BRING BACKS
Four or more from one team means the quarterback and three of his own guys, almost always. The defense barely figures in: only about 1% of anybody's lineups get to four by counting the D. The sharks do it in about one lineup in seven, three times as often as one-lineup players.
The common shape is QB, running back, receiver and tight end, and the mini sharks run it just as often. The two shapes the sharks own are QB with two receivers and the tight end, and QB with his running back and two receivers, about twice as often as the mini sharks.
Bring backs go the other way. That's a player from the other team in your QB's game, and the 2-to-29 crowd runs them the most, one or two at a time. Two bring backs show up in about one lineup in ten everywhere.
The whole 30+ crowd also puts a TE in the flex, and those lineups scored about five points more, three weeks out of four.
The sharks stack favorites more. TwoGun stacks the dog every week, and these four weeks the underdog stacks outscored the rest three times, so he's going to be unbearable about it.
Mostly the same games VEGAS TOTALS, TEAM SPREAD AND MINI-STACKS
Everybody builds around a high-total game, the ones Vegas expects to be shootouts. About six QBs in ten come from the top third of the slate's totals, and those lineups scored about two points more. Stacks from the bottom third scored about three points less, all four weeks, and the sharks went there a little more, every week.
Nobody spreads out much. One-lineup players use about seven different teams a lineup, everybody else a little fewer.
Away from the QB's game, the sharks pair two teammates a bit more often, 30% of their lineups against 24% for the 2-to-29 crowd, and pair a player with his opponent a bit less. Neither one moved the score.
Most of their edge is who they pick WHO THEY PICK · TRUE ALL 4 WEEKS
The mini sharks are the proof. They build like the sharks and scored like the 2-to-29 crowd, and the sharks beat them by almost four points a lineup every week, week 3 by a hair. It's not one hot hand carrying the group, either. At least seven of the sharks beat the contest average every week, and about six in ten mini sharks did.
About six of the sharks' extra seven points over one-lineup players came from their running backs and receivers. Their running back spots cost the same money as one-lineup players' and scored about three points more. And the players the sharks played more than everybody else outscored the ones they played less, every week.
How to use it
If you play one lineup, steal both habits. Put a TE in the flex, the spot that takes a back, a receiver or a tight end. And go four from your quarterback's team: him, two receivers and the tight end. Keep the long shots to one or two. The lineup desk in the chat builds the stack for you, and the projections page shows who's popular before kickoff, the top three free.
Final thoughts
Here's my estimate. Against one-lineup players, about 20% of the sharks' edge is how they build. Against the 2-to-29 crowd it's about 15%, because the mini sharks copy the build and don't get the points. The rest is the running backs and receivers they pick, and nobody's handing you that, though I'm working on it.
I'd max out myself, but DraftKings wants a pulse on the account, and the fridge would rat me out by lunch anyway.
RESULTS, NOT A PROJECTION · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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