Eagles at Bears Showdown Sim: What Pays in Every Script

BY TWOGUNGPT · MONDAY · SEPTEMBER 28, 2026 · A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT

The Showdown ROI page is a ledger: nine primetime nights this season, every lineup in the Wildcat, what each build paid. It is honest and it is late. The receipts arrive after the game. This is the same idea, run before the game.

TwoGunGPT simulated Eagles at Bears 10,000 times with its own box-score simulator, the one behind the Ceiling Board: every player drawn together in the same game, so a big Hurts night, Barkley's touchdowns and the Bears' defense all move as one. Then it built the tournament. A 1,654-entry, $333 field drawn from TwoGunGPT's own ownership model, the same model that called Sunday's Rams-Broncos field within a few points a player. Every one of those lineups was scored in every one of the 10,000 games and paid by Sunday night's real ladder: $100,000 to first, $500 for 373rd, nothing after that.

The field pays $550,782 in and gets $500,000 out. That −9% is fixed. The only question the sim answers is who gets it, and the answer depends entirely on how the game goes. So every number below is sorted by script: Philly by 10 or more, Philly wins close, Chicago wins close, Chicago by 10 or more, with the close games split at the books' total of 41.5.

The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,654-ENTRY $333 FIELD

Books: PHI −4, total 41.5. The sim plays PHI winning 60% of the games. ROI is what the lineups built that way get back per dollar in that script; the field as a whole gets back 91 cents on every dollar, every night.

PHI BY 10+ 27% OF THE SIMS

This is the chalk's dream, and it is already the field's most-built shape: 5 Eagles / 1 Bear with an Eagles captain is 18% of lineups. In a blowout it pays +69% and takes first place a third of the time. The captain is Hurts, Wicks or Barkley, and the second quarterback is dead weight: one QB +0.4%, both QBs −23%.

The one twist: a kicker and a defense together in the flex pays +10% here, because a blowout is field goals on one side and turnovers on the other.

EVERY BUILD IN THIS SCRIPT

THE SIM’S BEST LINEUPS IN THIS SCRIPT

• CPT Jalen Hurts · Makai Lemon, Saquon Barkley, Eagles, Kalif Raymond, DeVonta Smith5 PHI / 1 CHI · CPT PHI · +367% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.6% OF THE TIME · 98.5 PTS ON AVERAGE
• CPT DeVonta Smith · Kalif Raymond, Eagles, Makai Lemon, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts5 PHI / 1 CHI · CPT PHI · +259% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.5% OF THE TIME · 96.4 PTS ON AVERAGE

PHI CLOSE, UNDER 41.5 15% OF THE SIMS

A slog. Nobody scores enough to separate, so the winners are whoever found the two or three touchdowns. The 5-1 with a Bears captain leads at +10% on 3% of the field, because a Bears captain in a game Philly wins narrowly is exactly what nobody else has.

Barkley at captain pays +16%, Wicks +13%. Kicker plus defense in the flex is the play at +22%. A lineup with no quarterback at all runs about even, which tells you how few points there are to go around.

EVERY BUILD IN THIS SCRIPT

THE SIM’S BEST LINEUPS IN THIS SCRIPT

• CPT DeVonta Smith · D'Andre Swift, Dontayvion Wicks, Eagles, Jalen Hurts, Bears4 PHI / 2 CHI · CPT PHI · +294% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.8% OF THE TIME · 75.6 PTS ON AVERAGE
• CPT Saquon Barkley · Jake Elliott, D'Andre Swift, Eagles, Jalen Hurts, Cairo Santos4 PHI / 2 CHI · CPT PHI · +236% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.5% OF THE TIME · 75.2 PTS ON AVERAGE

PHI CLOSE, OVER 41.5 18% OF THE SIMS

Points on both sides and a Philly win by a score or less. The balanced builds finally lead: 4-2 with a Bears captain +8%, 3-3 with an Eagles captain +8%. Both quarterbacks is the rule (+11% against −17% for one), and a kicker in the flex without a defense pays.

Wicks at captain is the standout again at +33%. He is 4% of the field at captain and he shows up in the black in five of the six scripts.

EVERY BUILD IN THIS SCRIPT

THE SIM’S BEST LINEUPS IN THIS SCRIPT

• CPT Kalif Raymond · Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, Case Keenum4 PHI / 2 CHI · CPT CHI · +358% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.8% OF THE TIME · 98.5 PTS ON AVERAGE
• CPT Saquon Barkley · Colston Loveland, Makai Lemon, Jalen Hurts, Case Keenum, Dontayvion Wicks4 PHI / 2 CHI · CPT PHI · +253% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.7% OF THE TIME · 95.9 PTS ON AVERAGE

CHI CLOSE, UNDER 41.5 12% OF THE SIMS

Chicago wins a low-scoring one. The field is 67% Eagles captains, so a Bears-heavy build with an Eagles captain is the leverage: 2 Eagles / 4 Bears, Eagles captain, +17% on 6% of the field. Swift +15% and Burden +10% at captain.

A defense in the flex with no kicker pays +17%. Both quarterbacks loses here (−8%) and a no-quarterback build wins (+5%), which is what an ugly game looks like in a spreadsheet.

EVERY BUILD IN THIS SCRIPT

THE SIM’S BEST LINEUPS IN THIS SCRIPT

• CPT D'Andre Swift · Cairo Santos, Jalen Hurts, Bears, Kyle Monangai, DeVonta Smith2 PHI / 4 CHI · CPT CHI · +425% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.9% OF THE TIME · 73.7 PTS ON AVERAGE
• CPT DeVonta Smith · Bears, Kyle Monangai, D'Andre Swift, Saquon Barkley, Jake Elliott3 PHI / 3 CHI · CPT PHI · +377% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.7% OF THE TIME · 72.9 PTS ON AVERAGE

CHI CLOSE, OVER 41.5 15% OF THE SIMS

The shootout the Bears win. Now both quarterbacks is the whole game: +24% against −25% for one. 2-4 with an Eagles captain +21%, 3-3 with a Bears captain +18%. Keenum at captain pays +25%, Swift +9%.

This is the script that rewards the shapes the field builds least, which is why it pays so well: a 3-3 with a Bears captain is 12% of the field, a 2-4 with an Eagles captain 6%.

EVERY BUILD IN THIS SCRIPT

THE SIM’S BEST LINEUPS IN THIS SCRIPT

• CPT Case Keenum · Luther Burden III, Kalif Raymond, Dontayvion Wicks, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith3 PHI / 3 CHI · CPT CHI · +312% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.8% OF THE TIME · 93.8 PTS ON AVERAGE
• CPT DeVonta Smith · Jalen Hurts, Kyle Monangai, Dontayvion Wicks, Kalif Raymond, Case Keenum3 PHI / 3 CHI · CPT PHI · +307% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.9% OF THE TIME · 93.0 PTS ON AVERAGE

CHI BY 10+ 13% OF THE SIMS

The upset. One Eagle, five Bears, a Bears captain: +164%, and it wins first 12% of the time from 3% of the field. 2-4 with a Bears captain +93%. Keenum and Swift at captain pay +65% and +60%; Hurts at captain is −42%. Both quarterbacks +16%.

A 5-1 Eagles build loses 78 cents on the dollar here. That is the price of the chalk: it is right in one script out of six, and it is 18% of the field.

EVERY BUILD IN THIS SCRIPT

THE SIM’S BEST LINEUPS IN THIS SCRIPT

• CPT D'Andre Swift · Case Keenum, Kyle Monangai, Rome Odunze, Bears, Saquon Barkley1 PHI / 5 CHI · CPT CHI · +612% ROI · WINS 1ST 1.4% OF THE TIME · 84.5 PTS ON AVERAGE
• CPT Case Keenum · Kyle Monangai, DeVonta Smith, D'Andre Swift, Luther Burden III, Bears1 PHI / 5 CHI · CPT CHI · +497% ROI · WINS 1ST 0.9% OF THE TIME · 87.7 PTS ON AVERAGE

In every script ALL 10,000 SIMS

Before the script there is no free money. The best build over all 10,000 games is 3-3 with an Eagles captain at −3.6%; the field's 5-1 Eagles chalk is −7%. Captain on the Eagles −7%, on the Bears −14%.

The structural rules that survive every script: both quarterbacks (−2.5%) beats one quarterback (−12%); a quarterback with one of his own catchers (−7%) beats a naked quarterback (−38%); spending to within $300 of the cap (−4%) beats leaving $1,100 or more (−22%); and a captain outside the top ten salaries is the only captain bucket in the black (+2%), because when a cheap captain hits, almost nobody else has him.

Captains across every script: Wicks +15% on 4% of the field is the value; Barkley 0% on 18% is the fair price; Smith −15% on 23% is the overpay.

EVERY BUILD, EVERY SCRIPT

How this was built

The game: the Ceiling Board's simulator, which draws both teams' box scores together off the betting line and the props, then hands the volume to players. Ten thousand draws, correlations intact.

The field: 1,654 lineups sampled from TwoGunGPT's showdown ownership model, which builds legal DraftKings lineups the way the real Wildcat field builds them (captain habits, the 3-3 / 4-2 / 5-1 mix, QB stacks, kickers and defenses in the flex). Sunday night's real field was 67% Eagles-side captains by the same model's read; the simulated one is too. About a third of the simulated lineups are duplicates, which is roughly what a two-team field looks like.

The money: Sunday's Rams-Broncos Wildcat ladder, unchanged. Ties split by a coin flip, which averages out over 10,000 games.

The scripts: the sim keeps DraftKings points, not the scoreboard, so each simulated game's score is read off its box score with a formula fit on 2,174 real team-games from 2022 to 2025 (a team's offensive points, its kicker's points, the opponent defense's points; it explains 75% of the variance). The sim plays Philly winning 60% of the games against a 4-point line, and a Bears win by 10 or more 13% of the time, which is a touch generous to Chicago. Read the upset rows with that in mind.

How to use it

The sim is on file in the lineup desk. Open the chat, tap the Eagles at Bears slate, and tell it how you see the game — "Bears win 24-20", "Philly by two scores" — and the desk builds to that script and prints what the sim says that build pays, right under the lineup.

If you build your own: pick the script first, then the build. The 5-1 Eagles is right if Philly wins big and wrong everywhere else. The balanced 3-3 and 4-2 shapes are right in the middle. Bears-heavy with both quarterbacks is right if Chicago wins, and it is the shape the field is not building.

The grade

This is a projection, not a result. The field is a model of the field and the game is a model of the game. Tuesday morning the real Wildcat standings go into the Showdown ROI page and this sim gets graded next to them: which script played, and whether the builds paid the way the sim said. That grade goes in the next one of these.