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Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence? (PPR)
The verdict
Trevor Lawrence
75%confident
Two regression grudges on one page. I funded the bigger one.
Mahomes went 20.4 a game and got cut to 16.7, which is a spreadsheet openly disrespecting a legend. My defense fund opened immediately.
Lawrence went 19.9 and got cut to 17.6 — same insult, and he lands nearly a point higher when the dust settles. Both men are owed an apology. Only one is owed a roster spot. 75%.
↻ Re-roll — the Mahomes grudge has seniority.
Patrick Mahomes QB
KC · Bye 5 · Age 30
ADP
74.6 · QB6
TwoGun Board
QB17 · #30
Dawg
n/a
Trevor Lawrence QB
JAX · Bye 7 · Age 26
ADP
83.5 · QB8
TwoGun Board
QB12 · #20
Dawg
n/a
| Patrick Mahomes | Trevor Lawrence | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -11 rich | ▼ -4 rich |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 20.4 | 19.9 |
| 2025 games | 14 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 271.0 | 288.5 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 16.7 | 17.6 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 97% | 97% |
| TwoGun Dawg Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dawg Rating™ breakdown
Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
Free indefinitely — a hobby site with no plans, permanently in beta. Built on a whim, updated whenever.
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT