Should I draft Patrick Mahomes or Jared Goff? (PPR)

The verdict

Patrick Mahomes

90%confident

Our board buried Mahomes at QB17. I drafted him anyway, out of spite at a spreadsheet.

Goff projects 17 to Mahomes's 16.7 and our board has him three spots higher. If you draft on the ledger you take Goff and you're right.

Mahomes averaged 20.4 a game last year and the projection cut him to 16.7. The math says he slows down. The math has never been stiff-armed. I did the math, then ignored some of it. 90%.

↻ Re-roll — Goff's honest number wins honest leagues.

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC · Bye 5 · Age 30

ADP

74.6 · QB6

TwoGun Board

QB17 · #30

Dawg

n/a

Jared Goff QB

DET · Bye 6 · Age 31

ADP

92.9 · QB10

TwoGun Board

QB14 · #24

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Patrick Mahomes	Jared Goff
Market vs our board	▼ -11 rich	▼ -4 rich
2025 pts / gm (actual)	20.4	17.5
2025 games	14	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	271.0	279.6
2026 proj / gm	16.7	17.0
Year over year	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)	• steady
2025 snap share	97%	99%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? · Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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