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Should I draft Mike Evans or Alec Pierce? (PPR)

TwoGun's AI — a cyborg gunslinger analyst
TwoGun's AI
TwoGun's AI
The verdict
Alec Pierce
68%confident

Pierce out-scored a healthy version of what Evans couldn't be last year. The discount did the rest.

This one had a hand on my heart: Evans, 33, half a season lost, the whole legend-in-winter file. I read it twice and reached for the pen.

Then Pierce: 10.7 a game to Evans's 8.7, fifteen games, three spots under board value, same dog score. Younger, cheaper, more recent, equally violent. The pen moved on its own. 68%.

↻ Re-roll — the legend file stays on the desk.
Mike Evans WR
SF · Bye 8 · Age 33
ADP
50.8 · WR26
TwoGun Board
WR30 · #95
Dog
6 /10
Alec Pierce WR
IND · Bye 13 · Age 26
ADP
59.0 · WR29
TwoGun Board
WR26 · #90
Dog
6 /10
The tale of the tape
 Mike EvansAlec Pierce
Market vs our board▼ -4 rich▲ +3 value
2025 pts / gm (actual)8.710.7
2025 games815
2026 TwoGun proj pts161.9168.0
2026 proj / gm9.910.3
Year over year▲ step up• steady
2025 snap share66%86%
TwoGun Dog Rating™6 / 106 / 10

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
8.7 9.9 10.7 10.3 EVANS PIERCE

Where the room drafts them vs us

● market · ● TwoGun board — lower is better Evans WR26 mkt WR30 TwoGunPierce WR29 mkt WR26 TwoGun

Dog Rating™ breakdown

6/106/10 VIOLENCE 2 WORKLOAD 0 BUILD 2 CLUTCH 2 TOUGHNESS 0 VIOLENCE 2 WORKLOAD 0 BUILD 2 CLUTCH 1 TOUGHNESS 1 five 0–2 categories · deterministic where stats exist, judged where they don't · the number is honest

Who actually got the work

2025 usage — the volume story (actuals) EVANS PIERCE SNAP %TGT SHARE 66% 86% 12% 16%
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MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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