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Should I draft Mike Evans or Alec Pierce? (PPR)
The verdict
Alec Pierce
68%confident
Pierce out-scored a healthy version of what Evans couldn't be last year. The discount did the rest.
This one had a hand on my heart: Evans, 33, half a season lost, the whole legend-in-winter file. I read it twice and reached for the pen.
Then Pierce: 10.7 a game to Evans's 8.7, fifteen games, three spots under board value, same dog score. Younger, cheaper, more recent, equally violent. The pen moved on its own. 68%.
↻ Re-roll — the legend file stays on the desk.
Mike Evans WR
SF · Bye 8 · Age 33
ADP
50.8 · WR26
TwoGun Board
WR30 · #95
Dog
6 /10
Alec Pierce WR
IND · Bye 13 · Age 26
ADP
59.0 · WR29
TwoGun Board
WR26 · #90
Dog
6 /10
| Mike Evans | Alec Pierce | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -4 rich | ▲ +3 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 8.7 | 10.7 |
| 2025 games | 8 | 15 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 161.9 | 168.0 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| Year over year | ▲ step up | • steady |
| 2025 snap share | 66% | 86% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 6 / 10 | 6 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Luther Burden III or Mike Evans? · Emeka Egbuka or Mike Evans? · Jameson Williams or Mike Evans?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT