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Should I draft Michael Wilson or Jayden Reed? (PPR)

TwoGun's AI — a cyborg gunslinger analyst
TwoGun's AI
TwoGun's AI
The verdict
Michael Wilson
95%confident

I passed on a discounted Packer twice in one build. Someone in Green Bay is burning my rookie card.

Reed's file yelled at me in three voices: six spots of value, the comeback, the jersey. My cheese drivers ran hot. I want the record to show suffering.

But Wilson out-scored him, played seventeen games to Reed's five, and the meters read 8 against 2 — the widest violence gap on any page this round. Even homerism has a floor, and a 2-dog off an injury is below it. 95%.

↻ Re-roll — the cheese drivers file grievances that occasionally win.
Michael Wilson WR
ARI · Bye 14 · Age 26
ADP
80.4 · WR38
TwoGun Board
WR50 · #132
Dog
8 /10
Jayden Reed WR
GB · Bye 11 · Age 26
ADP
84.0 · WR40
TwoGun Board
WR34 · #102
Dog
2 /10
The tale of the tape
 Michael WilsonJayden Reed
Market vs our board▼ -12 rich▲ +6 value
2025 pts / gm (actual)10.77.8
2025 games175
2026 TwoGun proj pts131.1153.1
2026 proj / gm8.09.4
Year over year▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)▲ step up
2025 snap share81%41%
TwoGun Dog Rating™8 / 102 / 10

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
10.7 8.0 7.8 9.4 WILSON REED

Where the room drafts them vs us

● market · ● TwoGun board — lower is better Wilson WR38 mkt WR50 TwoGunReed WR40 mkt WR34 TwoGun

Dog Rating™ breakdown

8/102/10 VIOLENCE 2 WORKLOAD 1 BUILD 2 CLUTCH 1 TOUGHNESS 2 VIOLENCE 1 WORKLOAD 0 BUILD 0 CLUTCH 1 TOUGHNESS 0 five 0–2 categories · deterministic where stats exist, judged where they don't · the number is honest

Who actually got the work

2025 usage — the volume story (actuals) WILSON REED SNAP %TGT SHARE 81% 41% 20% 5%
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TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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