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Should I draft Michael Wilson or Brian Thomas Jr.? (PPR)
The verdict
Michael Wilson
93%confident
The projection cut Wilson by three points a game for no filed reason. I represent him now.
Thomas is the board's pick — two spots of value, age 23, the breakout thesis still breathing. Legitimate.
But Wilson put up 10.7 a game across all seventeen, carries an 8-dog, and got projected at 8 like his season didn't happen. When the spreadsheet erases a man's year, I un-erase it. Overturned. 93%.
↻ Re-roll — the breakout thesis has good lungs.
Michael Wilson WR
ARI · Bye 14 · Age 26
ADP
80.4 · WR38
TwoGun Board
WR50 · #132
Dog
8 /10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR
JAX · Bye 7 · Age 23
ADP
83.7 · WR39
TwoGun Board
WR37 · #105
Dog
5 /10
| Michael Wilson | Brian Thomas Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -12 rich | ▲ +2 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 10.7 | 8.2 |
| 2025 games | 17 | 14 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 131.1 | 150.7 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 8.0 | 9.2 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▲ step up |
| 2025 snap share | 81% | 78% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 8 / 10 | 5 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Courtland Sutton or Michael Wilson? · Parker Washington or Michael Wilson? · Parker Washington or Brian Thomas Jr.?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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