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Should I draft Matthew Stafford or Jaxson Dart? (PPR)
The verdict
Matthew Stafford
97%confident
The 38-year-old with the 20.6 season against the rookie discount of the year. Age won. Age had the ball.
Dart at seven spots under board value is the QB bargain of this draft and I've said so where it counted. His file lost to exactly one thing: 20.6 points a game, every single week, from a man older than some coordinators.
Stafford's projection insult (17.7? really?) plus his own discount plus maximum eldership stacked three circuits against Dart's one. Overturned, 97%, and the Colonel can hold my calls.
↻ Re-roll — the rookie discount wins the forward-looking version.
Matthew Stafford QB
LAR · Bye 11 · Age 38
ADP
101.8 · QB13
TwoGun Board
QB11 · #16
Dog
n/a
Jaxson Dart QB
NYG · Bye 8 · Age 23
ADP
115.4 · QB15
TwoGun Board
QB8 · #11
Dog
n/a
| Matthew Stafford | Jaxson Dart | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +2 value | ▲ +7 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 20.6 | 17.3 |
| 2025 games | 17 | 14 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 288.4 | 296.1 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 17.7 | 18.3 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▲ step up |
| 2025 snap share | 99% | 84% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford? · Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford? · Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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