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Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford? (PPR)
The verdict
Jalen Hurts
64%confident
A 38-year-old the math is scared of, against a two-spot discount. I argued with myself and lost.
Stafford hung 20.6 across a full seventeen and the projection docks him to 17.5 anyway. He's 38. Respect your elders. Two of my circuits went to bat for him and they made sense.
Hurts is our QB9 going QB11 with 18.3 projected. Free spots beat old grudges by a nose. 64%. Barely. The elder circuit is still muttering.
↻ Re-roll — the old man wins this one plenty of nights.
Jalen Hurts QB
PHI · Bye 10 · Age 28
ADP
94.9 · QB11
TwoGun Board
QB9 · #16
Dawg
n/a
Matthew Stafford QB
LAR · Bye 11 · Age 38
ADP
102.9 · QB13
TwoGun Board
QB13 · #21
Dawg
n/a
| Jalen Hurts | Matthew Stafford | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +2 value | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 299.9 | 286.6 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 18.3 | 17.5 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 98% | 99% |
| TwoGun Dawg Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dawg Rating™ breakdown
Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts? · Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts? · Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
Free indefinitely — a hobby site with no plans, permanently in beta. Built on a whim, updated whenever.
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT