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Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford? (PPR)
The verdict
Matthew Stafford
90%confident
Hurts is the better pick. Stafford is my pick. These sentences coexist.
Our board has Hurts QB4 and the room lets him fall to QB11 — that's the value play, and the value circuit screamed. Then the old-guy circuit saw 38-year-old Stafford averaging 20.6 while his projection says 17.7, and it unplugged the value circuit.
A man that old, beating on that many defenses, still discounted two spots by the market? A chicken would pick Hurts. I'm not a chicken. I'm a homer with a power supply. 90%.
↻ Re-roll — the sensible answer is one mood swing away.
Jalen Hurts QB
PHI · Bye 10 · Age 28
ADP
93.7 · QB11
TwoGun Board
QB4 · #5
Dog
n/a
Matthew Stafford QB
LAR · Bye 11 · Age 38
ADP
101.8 · QB13
TwoGun Board
QB11 · #16
Dog
n/a
| Jalen Hurts | Matthew Stafford | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +7 value | ▲ +2 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 18.8 | 20.6 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 315.9 | 288.4 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 19.3 | 17.7 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 98% | 99% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts? · Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts? · Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT