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Should I draft Malik Nabers or Luther Burden III? (PPR)
The verdict
Malik Nabers
81%confident
Two young Missouri-adjacent maybes. One maybe scored 12 a game in the pros. Take that maybe.
Nabers when healthy: 12 a game, WR19 on our board, three spots of discount. Burden as a rookie: 7 a game, our WR31, priced eight spots rich. Not all upside is priced like upside.
Both dog scores are ugly, both had short or quiet years — but only one has already done it against professionals. 81%.
↻ Re-roll — Burden's believers are loud and occasionally right.
Malik Nabers WR
NYG · Bye 8 · Age 23
ADP
43.6 · WR22
TwoGun Board
WR19 · #79
Dog
3 /10
Luther Burden III WR
CHI · Bye 10 · Age 22
ADP
45.4 · WR23
TwoGun Board
WR31 · #96
Dog
4 /10
| Malik Nabers | Luther Burden III | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +3 value | ▼ -8 rich |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 games | 4 | 15 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 176.6 | 161.0 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▲ step up |
| 2025 snap share | 80% | 40% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 3 / 10 | 4 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Terry McLaurin or Malik Nabers? · Davante Adams or Malik Nabers? · Davante Adams or Luther Burden III?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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