Should I draft Lamar Jackson or Drake Maye? (PPR)

The verdict

Drake Maye

93%confident

Lamar's the better projection. Maye is the better price and the better grudge. That's usually how I lose money.

Lamar projects 19.5 as our QB2 — a genuinely great player at a genuinely fair number, which is the least interesting thing a man can be.

Maye is our QB3 going QB5, projected 19.2 after averaging 20.7 across a full season. A discount plus a spreadsheet that's scared of him. 93%.

↻ Re-roll — Lamar wins the version of this where I behave.

Lamar Jackson QB

BAL · Bye 13 · Age 29

ADP

55.3 · QB3

TwoGun Board

QB2 · #7

Dawg

n/a

Drake Maye QB

NE · Bye 11 · Age 24

ADP

64.5 · QB5

TwoGun Board

QB3 · #8

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Lamar Jackson	Drake Maye
Market vs our board	• fair price	▲ +2 value
2025 pts / gm (actual)	16.5	20.7
2025 games	13	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	319.1	314.2
2026 proj / gm	19.5	19.2
Year over year	▲ step up	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	92%	96%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson? · Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott? · Dak Prescott or Drake Maye?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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