Should I draft Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence? (PPR)

The verdict

Trevor Lawrence

98%confident

Two-tenths of a point the other way, and I still took the man the math insulted.

Herbert projects 17.8 to Lawrence's 17.6 and our board likes him two spots better. That's the entire case for Herbert and it fits on a receipt.

Lawrence averaged 19.9 across a full seventeen and got docked to 17.6 for it. The math says he slows down. The math has never been stiff-armed. 98%.

↻ Re-roll — two-tenths is two-tenths and Herbert knows it.

Justin Herbert QB

LAC · Bye 7 · Age 28

ADP

75.2 · QB7

TwoGun Board

QB10 · #18

Dawg

n/a

Trevor Lawrence QB

JAX · Bye 7 · Age 26

ADP

83.5 · QB8

TwoGun Board

QB12 · #20

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Justin Herbert	Trevor Lawrence
Market vs our board	▼ -3 rich	▼ -4 rich
2025 pts / gm (actual)	17.9	19.9
2025 games	16	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	291.5	288.5
2026 proj / gm	17.8	17.6
Year over year	• steady	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	97%	97%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Justin Herbert? · Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? · Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
Free indefinitely — a hobby site with no plans, permanently in beta. Built on a whim, updated whenever.
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT