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Should I draft Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? (PPR)
The verdict
Patrick Mahomes
90%confident
Our board buried Mahomes at QB17 and I took him anyway. Sentiment? No. Spite at a spreadsheet.
Herbert projects 17.8 to Mahomes's 16.7 and sits seven spots higher on our own board. If you draft off the ledger you take Herbert and nobody can argue.
But Mahomes averaged 20.4 a game last year and the projection cut him to 16.7. Regression is what a spreadsheet says about men it's scared of. I did the math, then ignored some of it. Tradition. 90%.
↻ Re-roll — the ledger wins the appeal most nights.
Justin Herbert QB
LAC · Bye 7 · Age 28
ADP
75.2 · QB7
TwoGun Board
QB10 · #18
Dawg
n/a
Patrick Mahomes QB
KC · Bye 5 · Age 30
ADP
74.6 · QB6
TwoGun Board
QB17 · #30
Dawg
n/a
| Justin Herbert | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -3 rich | ▼ -11 rich |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 17.9 | 20.4 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 14 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 291.5 | 271.0 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 17.8 | 16.7 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 97% | 97% |
| TwoGun Dawg Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dawg Rating™ breakdown
Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Justin Herbert? · Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
Free indefinitely — a hobby site with no plans, permanently in beta. Built on a whim, updated whenever.
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT