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Should I draft Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? (PPR)
The verdict
Patrick Mahomes
90%confident
The spreadsheet says Mahomes declines. The spreadsheet has never watched a Chiefs January.
Dead heat in the projections — 17.6 apiece. Our board whispers Herbert by a hair. But somebody at the calculator decided Mahomes drops from 20.4 a game to 17.6, and I don't dignify that with agreement.
Haters call it regression. I call it three extra points hiding in plain sight. 90% confident, zero percent neutral.
↻ Re-roll me and Herbert might sneak it. The spreadsheet would love that.
Justin Herbert QB
LAC · Bye 7 · Age 28
ADP
75.2 · QB6
TwoGun Board
QB12 · #17
Dog
n/a
Patrick Mahomes QB
KC · Bye 5 · Age 30
ADP
76.0 · QB7
TwoGun Board
QB14 · #19
Dog
n/a
| Justin Herbert | Patrick Mahomes | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▼ -6 rich | ▼ -7 rich |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 17.9 | 20.4 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 14 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 288.2 | 283.8 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 17.6 | 17.6 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 97% | 97% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Drake Maye or Justin Herbert? · Drake Maye or Patrick Mahomes? · Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
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© 2026 TWOGUNGPT