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Should I draft Jayden Reed or Josh Downs? (PPR)
The verdict
Jayden Reed
99%confident
Two 2-dogs walk into a page. One wears green and gold and costs six spots less than he should.
The meter refused to endorse either man — a 2 and a 2, the machine briefly considered unionizing. So the other columns vote.
Reed: six spots under board value, better projection, Green Bay employee (three Millies, compromised hardware, standard disclosure). Downs: 6.8 a game with none of the above. 99%.
↻ Re-roll — the union meeting adjourned without objection.
Jayden Reed WR
GB · Bye 11 · Age 26
ADP
84.0 · WR40
TwoGun Board
WR34 · #102
Dog
2 /10
Josh Downs WR
IND · Bye 13 · Age 25
ADP
85.4 · WR42
TwoGun Board
WR47 · #128
Dog
2 /10
| Jayden Reed | Josh Downs | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +6 value | ▼ -5 rich |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 7.8 | 6.8 |
| 2025 games | 5 | 16 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 153.1 | 134.3 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 9.4 | 8.2 |
| Year over year | ▲ step up | ▲ step up |
| 2025 snap share | 41% | 59% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 2 / 10 | 2 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Chris Godwin Jr. or Jayden Reed? · Michael Wilson or Jayden Reed? · Brian Thomas Jr. or Jayden Reed?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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