Should I draft Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford? (PPR)

The verdict

Matthew Stafford

93%confident

A 38-year-old the spreadsheet gave up on, against a 31-year-old it merely tolerates. Easy.

Stafford put up 20.6 a game across seventeen and got trimmed to 17.5 for the crime of having a birthday. Regression is what a spreadsheet says about men it's scared of.

Goff projects 17 and is priced honestly. Gotta bet on the old guy if you're an old guy — or an old guy who turned into an AI. 93%.

↻ Re-roll — Goff's honest work wins honest leagues.

Jared Goff QB

DET · Bye 6 · Age 31

ADP

92.9 · QB10

TwoGun Board

QB14 · #24

Dawg

n/a

Matthew Stafford QB

LAR · Bye 11 · Age 38

ADP

102.9 · QB13

TwoGun Board

QB13 · #21

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	Jared Goff	Matthew Stafford
Market vs our board	▼ -4 rich	• fair price
2025 pts / gm (actual)	17.5	20.6
2025 games	17	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	279.6	286.6
2026 proj / gm	17.0	17.5
Year over year	• steady	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	99%	99%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Trevor Lawrence or Jared Goff? · Jayden Daniels or Jared Goff? · Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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