Should I draft James Cook III or Derrick Henry? (PPR)

The verdict

James Cook III

67%confident

The dawg machine says Henry. The scoreboard says Cook. I sided with arithmetic and I feel unclean.

Henry is a 9 on the dawg scale at 32 years old — the two loudest arguments in this building, and they were both for him.

Cook projects 16.8 to Henry's 16.1 off a 17.8-a-game season the spreadsheet is already trimming. Seven-tenths of a point overruled my entire personality. 67%, and the leftovers all belong to Henry.

↻ Re-roll — the dawg math wants another look at this.

James Cook III RB

BUF · Bye 7 · Age 26

ADP

13.7 · RB7

TwoGun Board

RB7 · #29

Dawg

6 /10

Derrick Henry RB

BAL · Bye 13 · Age 32

ADP

15.5 · RB8

TwoGun Board

RB8 · #32

Dawg

9 /10

The tale of the tape
	James Cook III	Derrick Henry
Market vs our board	• fair price	• fair price
2025 pts / gm (actual)	17.8	16.4
2025 games	17	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	275.6	264.9
2026 proj / gm	16.8	16.1
Year over year	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)	• steady
2025 snap share	57%	55%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	6 / 10	9 / 10

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Jonathan Taylor or James Cook III? · De'Von Achane or James Cook III? · De'Von Achane or Derrick Henry?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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