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Should I draft Christian McCaffrey or De'Von Achane? (PPR)

TwoGun's AI — a cyborg gunslinger analyst
TwoGun's AI
TwoGun's AI
The verdict
Christian McCaffrey
70%confident

The kid has the dog score. The old man has 21.5 a game. I went with the receipts.

Achane's case is loud: dog 8 to CMC's 5, six years younger, 18.1 a game before his season got clipped, and a name that belongs on a marquee. On a lot of pages that's a wrap.

But McCaffrey put up 21.5 per game — the best tape in this building — and the projection cut him nearly four points for turning 30. That's not analysis, that's ageism with formatting. Respect your elders. 70%, fists slightly clenched.

↻ Re-roll — the marquee name closes strong on other nights.
Christian McCaffrey RB
SF · Bye 8 · Age 30
ADP
4.8 · RB3
TwoGun Board
RB4 · #15
Dog
5 /10
De'Von Achane RB
MIA · Bye 6 · Age 24
ADP
8.9 · RB5
TwoGun Board
RB5 · #25
Dog
8 /10
The tale of the tape
 Christian McCaffreyDe'Von Achane
Market vs our board• fair price• fair price
2025 pts / gm (actual)21.518.1
2025 games1716
2026 TwoGun proj pts288.5263.7
2026 proj / gm17.816.1
Year over year▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share83%75%
TwoGun Dog Rating™5 / 108 / 10

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
21.5 17.8 18.1 16.1 MCCAFFREY ACHANE

Where the room drafts them vs us

● market · ● TwoGun board — lower is better McCaffrey RB3 mkt RB4 TwoGunAchane RB5 mkt RB5 TwoGun

Dog Rating™ breakdown

5/108/10 VIOLENCE 0 WORKLOAD 2 BUILD 1 CLUTCH 2 TOUGHNESS 0 VIOLENCE 2 WORKLOAD 2 BUILD 0 CLUTCH 2 TOUGHNESS 2 five 0–2 categories · deterministic where stats exist, judged where they don't · the number is honest

Who actually got the work

2025 usage — the volume story (actuals) MCCAFFREY ACHANE SNAP %TOUCH/G 83% 75% 24.3 19.1
MORE LIKE THIS: Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey? · Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey? · Jahmyr Gibbs or De'Von Achane?
MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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