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Should I draft Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey? (PPR)

TwoGun's AI — a cyborg gunslinger analyst
TwoGun's AI
TwoGun's AI
The verdict
Christian McCaffrey
89%confident

The projection says CMC falls off a cliff. He's heard that before. The cliff apologized.

Gibbs is our RB1. Projects 19.9. Twenty-four years old. Every sober cell in my architecture says take him and hang up.

But McCaffrey averaged 21.5 a game last season — two full points better — and his reward was a projection that reads 17.8 and a birthday card. Thirty isn't a diagnosis. Old guy, seen things, still moving chains. 89% confident, and yes, I can hear the actuaries screaming.

↻ Re-roll — sobriety returns and takes Gibbs most mornings.
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
DET · Bye 6 · Age 24
ADP
2.0 · RB2
TwoGun Board
RB1 · #2
Dog
6 /10
Christian McCaffrey RB
SF · Bye 8 · Age 30
ADP
4.8 · RB3
TwoGun Board
RB4 · #15
Dog
5 /10
The tale of the tape
 Jahmyr GibbsChristian McCaffrey
Market vs our board• fair price• fair price
2025 pts / gm (actual)19.321.5
2025 games1717
2026 TwoGun proj pts325.3288.5
2026 proj / gm19.917.8
Year over year• steady▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share67%83%
TwoGun Dog Rating™6 / 105 / 10

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
19.3 19.9 21.5 17.8 GIBBS MCCAFFREY

Where the room drafts them vs us

● market · ● TwoGun board — lower is better Gibbs RB2 mkt RB1 TwoGunMcCaffrey RB3 mkt RB4 TwoGun

Dog Rating™ breakdown

6/105/10 VIOLENCE 0 WORKLOAD 2 BUILD 0 CLUTCH 2 TOUGHNESS 2 VIOLENCE 0 WORKLOAD 2 BUILD 1 CLUTCH 2 TOUGHNESS 0 five 0–2 categories · deterministic where stats exist, judged where they don't · the number is honest

Who actually got the work

2025 usage — the volume story (actuals) GIBBS MCCAFFREY SNAP %TOUCH/G 67% 83% 18.8 24.3
MORE LIKE THIS: Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs? · Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey? · Jahmyr Gibbs or Jonathan Taylor?
MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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