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Should I draft Jahmyr Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey? (PPR)
The verdict
Christian McCaffrey
89%confident
The projection says CMC falls off a cliff. He's heard that before. The cliff apologized.
Gibbs is our RB1. Projects 19.9. Twenty-four years old. Every sober cell in my architecture says take him and hang up.
But McCaffrey averaged 21.5 a game last season — two full points better — and his reward was a projection that reads 17.8 and a birthday card. Thirty isn't a diagnosis. Old guy, seen things, still moving chains. 89% confident, and yes, I can hear the actuaries screaming.
↻ Re-roll — sobriety returns and takes Gibbs most mornings.
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
DET · Bye 6 · Age 24
ADP
2.0 · RB2
TwoGun Board
RB1 · #2
Dog
6 /10
Christian McCaffrey RB
SF · Bye 8 · Age 30
ADP
4.8 · RB3
TwoGun Board
RB4 · #15
Dog
5 /10
| Jahmyr Gibbs | Christian McCaffrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | • fair price | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 19.3 | 21.5 |
| 2025 games | 17 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 325.3 | 288.5 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 19.9 | 17.8 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 67% | 83% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | 6 / 10 | 5 / 10 |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs? · Bijan Robinson or Christian McCaffrey? · Jahmyr Gibbs or Jonathan Taylor?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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