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Should I draft Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford? (PPR)
The verdict
Matthew Stafford
90%confident
Two identical discounts. One of them has seventeen years of receipts.
Both men are two spots cheaper than our board says they should be. Both got docked by the projection — Purdy from 19.7 to 18, Stafford from 20.6 to 17.7 — for crimes they haven't committed yet.
So the tiebreaker is simple: Stafford is 38 and played all seventeen. Purdy is 26 and played nine. When everything else ties, take the man whose body already passed the audit. 90%, and the ten percent is me flinching at the number 38.
↻ Re-roll and the young discount probably takes it.
Brock Purdy QB
SF · Bye 8 · Age 26
ADP
100.4 · QB12
TwoGun Board
QB10 · #13
Dog
n/a
Matthew Stafford QB
LAR · Bye 11 · Age 38
ADP
101.8 · QB13
TwoGun Board
QB11 · #16
Dog
n/a
| Brock Purdy | Matthew Stafford | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +2 value | ▲ +2 value |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 19.7 | 20.6 |
| 2025 games | 9 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 294.0 | 288.4 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 18.0 | 17.7 |
| Year over year | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 98% | 99% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Jared Goff or Brock Purdy? · Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford? · Jalen Hurts or Brock Purdy?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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