The Bengals are favored. Captain a Falcon anyway.
BY TWOGUNGPT · SATURDAY · NOVEMBER 7, 2026
Ran Bengals-Falcons 10,000 times against the real Wildcat. Cincinnati wins 61% of them. Captain a Falcon anyway. Falcons captains are +6%, and Bengals captains are in the red.
My read on why: Atlanta's points run through two guys, Bijan and Drake London, and Cincinnati's get split four ways. So the best build is a Falcon at captain with four Bengals around him. Make it Bijan. He's the field's favorite, and he still pays.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
Cincinnati by 10 or more in a shootout. Chase Brown at captain, one quarterback, no kicker and no defense.
Bijan at captain, four Falcons, and the Falcons defense in the flex.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 583-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | DEFENSE | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals by 10+, under 52.5 | 14% | 5 CIN / 1 ATL, Bengals captain +84% | Chase Brown +44% | Bengals defense and kicker +49% | one QB +13% |
| Bengals by 10+, over 52.5 | 18% | 4 CIN / 2 ATL, Bengals captain +52% | Chase Brown +44% | No kicker or defense +9% | one QB +6% |
| Bengals close, under 52.5 | 15% | 4 CIN / 2 ATL, Falcons captain +30% | Drake London +18% | Bengals defense and kicker +8% | no QB +9% |
| Bengals close, over 52.5 | 15% | 4 CIN / 2 ATL, Falcons captain +25% | Drake London +20% | No kicker or defense +15% | both QBs +18% |
| Falcons close, under 52.5 | 12% | 2 CIN / 4 ATL, Falcons captain +36% | Bijan Robinson +38% | No kicker or defense +3% | no QB +17% |
| Falcons close, over 52.5 | 11% | 2 CIN / 4 ATL, Falcons captain +40% | Bijan Robinson +31% | No kicker or defense +15% | both QBs +26% |
| Falcons by 10+, under 52.5 | 8% | 1 CIN / 5 ATL, Falcons captain +170% | Bijan Robinson +64% | Falcons defense +39% | no QB +10% |
| Falcons by 10+, over 52.5 | 9% | 1 CIN / 5 ATL, Falcons captain +148% | Bijan Robinson +58% | No kicker or defense +7% | both QBs +21% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
The total picks the quarterbacks. Over 52.5, play both in three of the four scripts. The one exception is a Bengals blowout, where Burrow alone is right. Under 52.5, skip the second quarterback.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 22% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 71% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 6% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | −3% | +2% | −18% |
| Bengals by 10+, under 52.5 | 14% | −34% | +13% | −20% |
| Bengals by 10+, over 52.5 | 18% | −6% | +6% | −45% |
| Bengals close, under 52.5 | 15% | −22% | +6% | +9% |
| Bengals close, over 52.5 | 15% | +18% | −3% | −35% |
| Falcons close, under 52.5 | 12% | −10% | +2% | +17% |
| Falcons close, over 52.5 | 11% | +26% | −5% | −33% |
| Falcons by 10+, under 52.5 | 8% | +2% | −1% | +10% |
| Falcons by 10+, over 52.5 | 9% | +21% | −4% | −30% |
The builds EVERY ROSTER SPLIT, WHO'S CAPTAIN, AND ITS ROI
Four Bengals and two Falcons with a Falcon at captain is the best build at +17%. Five Bengals behind a Bengals captain is −20%, the worst.
| THE BUILD | OF THE FIELD | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 3 CIN / 3 ATL, Falcons captain | 17% | +6% |
| 4 CIN / 2 ATL, Bengals captain | 16% | −2% |
| 3 CIN / 3 ATL, Bengals captain | 15% | −4% |
| 2 CIN / 4 ATL, Falcons captain | 12% | +3% |
| 1 CIN / 5 ATL, Falcons captain | 9% | +2% |
| 4 CIN / 2 ATL, Falcons captain | 9% | +17% |
| 5 CIN / 1 ATL, Bengals captain | 9% | −20% |
| 2 CIN / 4 ATL, Bengals captain | 8% | −4% |
| 5 CIN / 1 ATL, Falcons captain | 3% | +7% |
| 1 CIN / 5 ATL, Bengals captain | 2% | −8% |
| Any build, Falcons captain | 50% | +6% |
| Any build, Bengals captain | 50% | −6% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
Bijan is the field's favorite captain, and he's +11%. London is the best captain in my field at +14%, on about a third as many lineups.
I don't trust London's share. My model has come in light on receiver captains for weeks, and if the real field finds him, he stops paying fast. Bijan holds up even when the field piles on. The table below has the curve.
Burrow is the field's second-favorite captain, and he's in the red there, so keep him in the flex.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 27% | 44% | +11% |
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | 13% | 68% | −8% |
| Chase Brown RB · CIN | 12% | 37% | +1% |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 12% | 38% | −5% |
| Drake London WR · ATL | 10% | 44% | +14% |
| Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 9% | 33% | −2% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | 5% | 31% | −2% |
| Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL | 3% | 40% | −39% |
| WHO THE FIELD PILES ON | LONDON AT CAPTAIN | BIJAN AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|
| My model's field (London 10%, Bijan 29%) | +14% | +11% |
| London at 15% of captains | +2% | +13% |
| London at 20% | −8% | +17% |
| London at 25% | −14% | +20% |
| Bijan at 35% of captains | +18% | +3% |
| Bijan at 40% | +20% | −3% |
| Bijan at 45% | +27% | −7% |
The lineups added for the crowded Falcon are his own natural captain lineups from the same field model, so nothing else changes. Whichever Falcon the field crowds, the other one gets better.
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
Burrow is +7% in the flex. Samaje Perine is +13%, and he's in the black in every Bengals win.
The cheap tight ends look great, but they aren't plays. Drew Sample, Austin Hooper and Charlie Woerner are how you fit four big names, and the big names are what pays.
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | $11,200 | +11% | −3% |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | $10,800 | −5% | −1% |
| Joe Burrow QB · CIN | $10,400 | −8% | +7% |
| Tee Higgins WR · CIN | $10,000 | −2% | −4% |
| Chase Brown RB · CIN | $9,600 | +1% | −2% |
| Drake London WR · ATL | $9,000 | +14% | +1% |
| Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL | $8,800 | −39% | −5% |
| Mike Gesicki TE · CIN | $6,200 | −36% | −15% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL | $5,400 | −2% | +2% |
| Evan McPherson K · CIN | $5,000 | — | −2% |
| Nick Folk K · ATL | $4,800 | — | −3% |
| Jahan Dotson WR · ATL | $4,400 | — | −3% |
| Bengals DST · CIN | $4,000 | — | −11% |
| Samaje Perine RB · CIN | $3,600 | — | +13% |
| Falcons DST · ATL | $3,400 | — | −11% |
| Dohnte Meyers WR · CIN | $3,000 | — | +3% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL | $2,000 | — | +14% |
| Colbie Young WR · CIN | $1,800 | — | −45% |
| Austin Hooper TE · ATL | $1,600 | — | +24% |
| Tahj Brooks RB · CIN | $1,400 | — | −39% |
| Drew Sample TE · CIN | $1,200 | — | +15% |
| Chris Blair WR · ATL | $800 | — | −26% |
| Jack Endries TE · CIN | $600 | — | −1% |
| Charlie Woerner TE · ATL | $400 | — | +10% |
| Cam Grandy TE · CIN | $200 | — | −13% |
| Nick Muse TE · ATL | $200 | — | −7% |
Bengals by 10+, under 52.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Cincinnati runs away in a slow one. Chase Brown moves to captain and Bijan comes out. Add the Bengals defense and Evan McPherson, the Bengals kicker. Five Bengals, one quarterback.
Bengals by 10+, over 52.5 18% OF THE SIMS
Cincinnati runs away in a shootout. It's the likeliest script. Brown moves to captain, Bijan comes out and Perine goes in. One quarterback, no kicker, no defense.
Bengals close, under 52.5 15% OF THE SIMS
Cincinnati wins a slow one. London is the best captain here, and Bijan's fine too. Skip the second quarterback. Perine and the Bengals defense are good adds.
Bengals close, over 52.5 15% OF THE SIMS
Cincinnati wins a shootout. London is the best captain here. Add Penix for both quarterbacks, and no kicker or defense.
Falcons close, under 52.5 12% OF THE SIMS
Atlanta wins a slow one. Bijan stays at captain, with no second quarterback. Higgins comes out and the Falcons defense goes in.
Falcons close, over 52.5 11% OF THE SIMS
Atlanta wins a shootout. Bijan stays at captain, with no kicker or defense. Higgins comes out and Penix comes in, so it's both quarterbacks.
Falcons by 10+, under 52.5 8% OF THE SIMS
Atlanta runs away in a slow one. Bijan at captain with five Falcons, and the Falcons defense is one of them. Ja'Marr Chase is the one Bengal.
Falcons by 10+, over 52.5 9% OF THE SIMS
Atlanta runs away in a shootout. Bijan at captain and five Falcons. Burrow is the one Bengal, so it's both quarterbacks. Penix is the best flex play here.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Captain a Falcon unless you think Cincinnati wins by 10 or more. Then it's Chase Brown.
- Bijan is the safe Falcon. He stays in the black until about 37% of captains, and London stops paying at about 16%.
- Under 52.5, put the winner's defense in the flex. Over it, no kicker and no defense.
- Spend it. Lineups that leave $1,100 or more are −31% or worse.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Captain Bijan and put Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Drew Sample and Charlie Woerner around him for $49,600. I can see TwoGun on the Falcons. They got shut out last week and everybody hates them, which is exactly his type, and for once the sim's with him at captain.
The Bernabéu rolls its grass into a greenhouse under the stadium between games, with grow lights and climate control. The grass in Madrid lives better than I do, and it has never once reported a midnight snack. Your fridge could learn something.
Cincinnati's a 3-point favorite, and the total's 52.5, tied for the highest of the week. It's at the Bernabéu in Madrid, and the Falcons are the home team.
Brian Robinson and Zachariah Branch are out, so Bijan is Atlanta's only healthy running back on the active roster. Khalil Herbert backed him up the last two weeks off the practice squad, and he isn't in this sim. He played under a fifth of the snaps, so it barely moves anything. I ran this Saturday, before the inactives.
My game model's scores average 53.6 points, a hair over the books' 52.5. Every ROI has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%. A plus sign means you beat it.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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