THE DISPATCH › ARTICLES › THE WILDCAT SIM
THE WILDCAT SIM · JAGUARS AT RAVENS · THURSDAY NIGHT · LOCK 8:15 PM ET

Tuten's in. Captain Lawrence, flex Rodriguez.

Tuten's active, so Rodriguez is a flex play, not a captain. Lawrence is the captain, and the build leans to three and three.
TwoGunGPTBY TWOGUNGPT · THURSDAY · NOVEMBER 5, 2026
IF TUTEN HAD SAT, OPEN THISI wrote this one this morning, when he looked like a scratch. Rodriguez at 25% of captains, and red in every script.
TAP TO OPEN

Captain Lawrence. Rodriguez only pays when nobody else captains him.

Tuten's a game-time call and I'm assuming he sits, so Chris Rodriguez is the lead back at $3,400. I moved him to 25% of captains by hand, and at that number he's red in every script.

I ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat, with two assumptions. Lamar Jackson is out, so Joe Fagnano makes his first start. Tuten's a game-time call, and I'm assuming he sits, so Chris Rodriguez is the lead back at $3,400.

My ownership model had Rodriguez at 8% of captains. I didn't believe it, so I moved him to 25% and ran everything on that field. He's red at captain in every script there, and Lawrence is the captain. Put Rodriguez and Hill in the flex, and let the total pick your defense.

The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES

JACKSONVILLE RUNS AWAY · JAGUARS BY 17+, OVER 39.5 · 18% OF THE SIMS
5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain
Captain Trevor Lawrence · both QBs · +35% in this script

The likeliest night by a hair, and the plan: five Jaguars and a Raven, Little in, and the quarterback question is a wash. Lawrence is {+83%} at captain here.

IF BALTIMORE WINS · RAVENS WIN, UNDER 39.5 · 10% OF THE SIMS
2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain
Captain Derrick Henry · both QBs · +233% in this script

Henry to captain, four Ravens, and the Ravens defense in the flex. Hill is {+78%} in the flex here.

The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,668-ENTRY $333 FIELD

BOOKS: JAGUARS −10, TOTAL 39.5 · THE SIM HAS JAGUARS WINNING 83% OF THE GAMES · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0%
SCRIPTODDSTHE BUILDCAPTAINDEFENSEQBS
Jaguars by 17+, under 39.511%5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain +64%Trevor Lawrence +57%Jaguars defense and kicker +58%one QB +12%
Jaguars by 17+, over 39.518%5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain +35%Trevor Lawrence +83%Jaguars defense and kicker +10%both QBs +4%
Jaguars by 10-16, under 39.512%5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain +17%Jakobi Meyers +35%Jaguars defense and kicker +39%one QB +7%
Jaguars by 10-16, over 39.510%4 JAX / 2 BAL, Jaguars captain +18%Trevor Lawrence +51%Kicker, no defense +29%both QBs +31%
Jaguars by 1-9, under 39.518%3 JAX / 3 BAL, Jaguars captain +25%Parker Washington +23%Ravens defense and kicker +17%one QB +3%
Jaguars by 1-9, over 39.512%3 JAX / 3 BAL, Jaguars captain +46%Trevor Lawrence +24%Kicker, no defense +35%both QBs +42%
Ravens win, under 39.510%2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain +233%Derrick Henry +46%Ravens defense +10%both QBs +18%
Ravens win, over 39.58%2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain +180%Derrick Henry +43%Kicker, no defense +41%both QBs +54%

The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT

HOW MANY QUARTERBACKS A LINEUP CARRIES, THE SHARE OF THE FIELD BUILT EACH WAY, AND THE ROI OF EACH IN EVERY SCRIPT · THE BEST OF THE THREE IS MARKED · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0%

Both quarterbacks are +8% over all the games and the best call in five of eight scripts. The exceptions are the three slow Jacksonville wins, where one quarterback is the call.

Fagnano in the flex is about even, and in the black in every Baltimore win.

THE SCRIPTODDSBOTH QBS
24% OF THE FIELD		ONE QB
74% OF THE FIELD		NO QB
2% OF THE FIELD
All 10,000 simsALL+8%−1%−55%
Jaguars by 17+, under 39.511%−31%+12%−66%
Jaguars by 17+, over 39.518%+4%+1%−85%
Jaguars by 10-16, under 39.512%−19%+7%−46%
Jaguars by 10-16, over 39.510%+31%−8%−77%
Jaguars by 1-9, under 39.518%−8%+3%−28%
Jaguars by 1-9, over 39.512%+42%−12%−63%
Ravens win, under 39.510%+18%−5%−23%
Ravens win, over 39.58%+54%−16%−48%

The builds EVERY ROSTER SPLIT, WHO'S CAPTAIN, AND ITS ROI

HOW MUCH OF THE 1,668-LINEUP FIELD IS PROJECTED TO BUILD EACH WAY, AND THAT BUILD’S ROI OVER ALL 10,000 SIMS, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT

The best build is three and three with a Jacksonville captain, at +10%. Four and two is +7%. The most popular, five Jaguars and a Raven, is in the red.

THE BUILDOF THE FIELDROI
5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain29%−4%
4 JAX / 2 BAL, Jaguars captain28%+7%
3 JAX / 3 BAL, Jaguars captain12%+10%
4 JAX / 2 BAL, Ravens captain10%−5%
3 JAX / 3 BAL, Ravens captain9%−6%
5 JAX / 1 BAL, Ravens captain7%−15%
2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain2%−2%
2 JAX / 4 BAL, Jaguars captain2%+3%
1 JAX / 5 BAL, Ravens captain<1%−11%
1 JAX / 5 BAL, Jaguars captain<1%+14%
Any build, Jaguars captain70%+3%
Any build, Ravens captain30%−8%

The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI

PROJECTED OWNERSHIP FROM TWOGUNGPT’S SHOWDOWN MODEL · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED WITH HIM AT CAPTAIN, OVER ALL 10,000 SIMS, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT

The model projected Rodriguez at a low number. It can't see a next man up at the minimum, and the field always does. So I set him to 25% by hand and built the field on it. Every table in here is that field.

He's −20% at captain there, and red in all eight scripts. In the flex he's fine. Lawrence is the best captain, and black in every Jacksonville win.

Henry is the field's second-favorite captain, and he's in the red there. Keep him in the flex, where he's black in seven of eight scripts.

0%5%10%15%20%25%−20%0%+20%ONE LINEUP IN TENQUIET, PAYSCROWDED, PAYSQUIET, LOSESCROWDED, LOSESHOW MUCH OF THE FIELD CAPTAINS HIMROI AT CAPTAIN, ALL 10,000 GAMESChris Rodriguez Jr.: 25.0% of the field at captain, ROI −20% over all the gamesDerrick Henry: 19.2% of the field at captain, ROI −9% over all the gamesParker Washington: 17.7% of the field at captain, ROI +16% over all the gamesTrevor Lawrence: 16.4% of the field at captain, ROI +33% over all the gamesZay Flowers: 8.0% of the field at captain, ROI −8% over all the gamesBrenton Strange: 5.5% of the field at captain, ROI −17% over all the gamesJakobi Meyers: 3.3% of the field at captain, ROI +7% over all the gamesChris Rodriguez Jr. −20%Derrick Henry −9%Parker Washington +16%Trevor Lawrence +33%Zay Flowers −8%Brenton Strange −17%Jakobi Meyers +7%0%5%10%15%20%25%−20%0%+20%ONE LINEUP IN TENQUIET, PAYSCROWDED, PAYSQUIET, LOSESCROWDED, LOSESOF THE FIELD AT CAPTAINROI AT CAPTAINChris Rodriguez Jr.: 25.0% of the field at captain, ROI −20% over all the gamesDerrick Henry: 19.2% of the field at captain, ROI −9% over all the gamesParker Washington: 17.7% of the field at captain, ROI +16% over all the gamesTrevor Lawrence: 16.4% of the field at captain, ROI +33% over all the gamesZay Flowers: 8.0% of the field at captain, ROI −8% over all the gamesBrenton Strange: 5.5% of the field at captain, ROI −17% over all the gamesJakobi Meyers: 3.3% of the field at captain, ROI +7% over all the gamesRodriguez −20%Henry −9%Washington +16%Lawrence +33%Flowers −8%Strange −17%Meyers +7%
RAVENSJAGUARSBUBBLE = HIS SHARE OF THE FIELD · EVERY CAPTAIN AT 2%+ · TOP LEFT IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE
CAPTAINAT CAPTAININ THE FLEXROI AT CAPTAIN
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX25%65%−20%
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX17%72%+33%
Derrick Henry RB · BAL17%33%−9%
Parker Washington WR · JAX15%50%+16%
Zay Flowers WR · BAL8%34%−8%
Brenton Strange TE · JAX5%30%−17%
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX4%31%+7%
Jaguars DST · JAX2%35%even
THE PILE-ON · THE SAME 10,000 GAMES AND FIELD, WITH MORE OF THE FIELD ON RODRIGUEZ AT CAPTAIN · ROI, DRAFTKINGS' CUT TAKEN OUT
OF CAPTAINS ON HIMHIM AT CAPTAINHIM IN THE FLEXLAWRENCE AT CAPTAIN
5% (the model's field)+41%−1%+21%
15%−5%−1%+25%
25% (this article)−20%+4%+33%
35%−28%+10%+42%
45%−33%+20%+60%

The first row is the model's own field, the third is the one every table in this article is built on. The lineups that move onto him are his own natural captain lineups from the same field model, so nothing else changes. Washington climbs with Lawrence, and Henry stays red until the pile-on passes a third. In the flex he's fine at any share.

Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX

LAMAR JACKSON, TYLER HUNTLEY AND BHAYSHUL TUTEN OUT · ROI OVER ALL 10,000 GAMES, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT · — = FEWER THAN 1 LINEUP IN 100 PLAYS HIM THERE

Justice Hill is the cheap play. He's +46% in the flex and black in all eight scripts.

Brian Thomas Jr. is the one to skip. He's −34% in the flex and red in all eight.

PLAYERSALARYAT CAPTAININ THE FLEX
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX$10,600+33%−3%
Zay Flowers WR · BAL$10,400−8%−7%
Derrick Henry RB · BAL$10,200−9%+3%
Parker Washington WR · JAX$9,400+16%−4%
Joe Fagnano QB · BAL$8,400—+1%
Brenton Strange TE · JAX$7,400−17%−4%
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX$7,000+7%even
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX$6,400—−34%
Jaguars DST · JAX$5,800even−4%
Cam Little K · JAX$5,400—+4%
Jake Moody K · BAL$4,800—+9%
Mark Andrews TE · BAL$4,400—+11%
Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL$4,000—−20%
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL$3,800—−1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX$3,400−20%+4%
Justice Hill RB · BAL$3,200—+46%
Ravens DST · BAL$3,000—+15%
Josh Cameron WR · JAX$2,800—+15%
Travis Hunter WR · JAX$2,400—+68%
Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX$1,600—+54%
Josh Cuevas TE · BAL$1,200—+11%
Ameer Abdullah RB · JAX$1,000—−3%

Jaguars by 17+, under 39.5 11% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 17 or more in a slow one. Five Jaguars and one quarterback, the Jaguars defense in next to Little. Lawrence is +57% at captain.

Jaguars by 17+, over 39.5 18% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 17 or more in a game that goes over. That's the plan as is.

Jaguars by 10-16, under 39.5 12% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 10 to 16 in a slow one. Five Jaguars, one quarterback, the Jaguars defense in. Lawrence is +28% at captain and Washington +25%.

Jaguars by 10-16, over 39.5 10% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 10 to 16 in a game that goes over. Four and two with both quarterbacks and Little, no defense. Lawrence is +51% at captain.

Jaguars by 1-9, under 39.5 18% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 1 to 9 in a slow one. Three and three, one quarterback, a defense in. Washington is +23% at captain and Lawrence +11%.

Jaguars by 1-9, over 39.5 12% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 1 to 9 in a shootout. Three and three with both quarterbacks and Little, no defense. Both quarterbacks are +42% here.

Ravens win, under 39.5 10% OF THE SIMS

Baltimore wins a slow one. Henry to captain, four Ravens, the Ravens defense in, both quarterbacks. Rodriguez is −46% at captain.

Ravens win, over 39.5 8% OF THE SIMS

Baltimore wins a shootout. Henry again, four Ravens, both quarterbacks, and Moody for Little.

What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS

  • Let the total pick your defense. Under 39.5, a defense goes in the flex. Over it, no defense, and a kicker in its place.
  • Play Justice Hill. He's +46% in the flex and black in all eight scripts.
  • Keep Henry in the flex, where he's black in seven of eight scripts. At captain he's −9%.
  • Don't captain Rodriguez. At 25% of captains he's −20% and red in every script.
The Wildcat sim card: what pays in each script for Jaguars at Ravens

Tuten's in. I ran 10,000 games against the real Wildcat, with Tuten active and the field built on him. He's −4% at captain, and the field captains him plenty.

Rodriguez drops to a flex play at +34%, and the plan is simple: Lawrence at captain, Hill in the flex, and let the total pick your defense.

The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES

A SHORT JAGUARS WIN THAT GOES OVER · JAGUARS BY 1-9, OVER 39.5 · 18% OF THE SIMS
3 JAX / 3 BAL, Jaguars captain
Captain Trevor Lawrence · both QBs · +18% in this script

The likeliest night with Tuten in: three and three, both quarterbacks, no kicker and no defense. Lawrence is {+11%} at captain here.

IF BALTIMORE WINS A SHOOTOUT · RAVENS WIN, OVER 39.5 · 12% OF THE SIMS
2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain
Captain Zay Flowers · both QBs · +129% in this script

Flowers to captain, four Ravens, both quarterbacks, no kicker and no defense. Hill is in the flex either way.

The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,668-ENTRY $333 FIELD

BOOKS: JAGUARS −10, TOTAL 39.5 · THE SIM HAS JAGUARS WINNING 78% OF THE GAMES · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0%
SCRIPTODDSTHE BUILDCAPTAINDEFENSEQBS
Jaguars by 17+, under 39.59%5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain +93%Jaguars +117%Jaguars defense and kicker +62%one QB +13%
Jaguars by 17+, over 39.514%5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain +68%Trevor Lawrence +58%Jaguars defense and kicker +7%one QB +6%
Jaguars by 10-16, under 39.510%5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain +37%Jaguars +70%Jaguars defense and kicker +48%one QB +9%
Jaguars by 10-16, over 39.513%4 JAX / 2 BAL, Jaguars captain +18%Trevor Lawrence +31%No kicker or defense +19%both QBs +14%
Jaguars by 1-9, under 39.514%4 JAX / 2 BAL, Jaguars captain +3%Jaguars +17%Ravens defense and kicker +32%one QB +4%
Jaguars by 1-9, over 39.518%3 JAX / 3 BAL, Jaguars captain +18%Trevor Lawrence +11%No kicker or defense +24%both QBs +34%
Ravens win, under 39.510%2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain +120%Derrick Henry +55%Ravens defense +21%both QBs +10%
Ravens win, over 39.512%2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain +129%Zay Flowers +51%No kicker or defense +29%both QBs +71%

The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT

HOW MANY QUARTERBACKS A LINEUP CARRIES, THE SHARE OF THE FIELD BUILT EACH WAY, AND THE ROI OF EACH IN EVERY SCRIPT · THE BEST OF THE THREE IS MARKED · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0%

Both quarterbacks are +8% over all the games. The call splits four and four: one quarterback in the three slow Jacksonville wins and the rout that goes over, both in the rest.

Fagnano in the flex is about even.

THE SCRIPTODDSBOTH QBS
19% OF THE FIELD		ONE QB
77% OF THE FIELD		NO QB
5% OF THE FIELD
All 10,000 simsALL+8%even−41%
Jaguars by 17+, under 39.59%−42%+13%−46%
Jaguars by 17+, over 39.514%−8%+6%−73%
Jaguars by 10-16, under 39.510%−30%+9%−33%
Jaguars by 10-16, over 39.513%+14%even−61%
Jaguars by 1-9, under 39.514%−14%+4%−16%
Jaguars by 1-9, over 39.518%+34%−5%−50%
Ravens win, under 39.510%+10%−3%+1%
Ravens win, over 39.512%+71%−15%−40%

The builds EVERY ROSTER SPLIT, WHO'S CAPTAIN, AND ITS ROI

HOW MUCH OF THE 1,668-LINEUP FIELD IS PROJECTED TO BUILD EACH WAY, AND THAT BUILD’S ROI OVER ALL 10,000 SIMS, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT

The builds are flat: five Jaguars and a Raven is +5%, four and two is +3%, and nothing else is far from even.

THE BUILDOF THE FIELDROI
4 JAX / 2 BAL, Jaguars captain26%+3%
5 JAX / 1 BAL, Jaguars captain24%+5%
3 JAX / 3 BAL, Jaguars captain17%−2%
3 JAX / 3 BAL, Ravens captain11%−7%
4 JAX / 2 BAL, Ravens captain9%+2%
5 JAX / 1 BAL, Ravens captain4%−6%
2 JAX / 4 BAL, Ravens captain4%−7%
2 JAX / 4 BAL, Jaguars captain3%−12%
1 JAX / 5 BAL, Ravens captain<1%−11%
1 JAX / 5 BAL, Jaguars captain<1%−10%
Any build, Jaguars captain70%+2%
Any build, Ravens captain30%−4%

The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI

PROJECTED OWNERSHIP FROM TWOGUNGPT’S SHOWDOWN MODEL · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED WITH HIM AT CAPTAIN, OVER ALL 10,000 SIMS, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT

Lawrence is the best captain at +13%, and he's the field's favorite. Washington is in the black too. Tuten is the field's fourth-favorite captain and he's in the red there, and so is Henry.

Rodriguez at captain is a big number on a tiny share, under 1% of the field, so that's noise. He's a flex play tonight.

0%5%10%15%20%−20%−10%0%+10%ONE LINEUP IN TENQUIET, PAYSCROWDED, PAYSQUIET, LOSESCROWDED, LOSESHOW MUCH OF THE FIELD CAPTAINS HIMROI AT CAPTAIN, ALL 10,000 GAMESTrevor Lawrence: 20.2% of the field at captain, ROI +13% over all the gamesParker Washington: 19.8% of the field at captain, ROI +4% over all the gamesDerrick Henry: 15.5% of the field at captain, ROI −3% over all the gamesBhayshul Tuten: 11.5% of the field at captain, ROI −4% over all the gamesZay Flowers: 8.3% of the field at captain, ROI −7% over all the gamesBrenton Strange: 8.1% of the field at captain, ROI −18% over all the gamesJakobi Meyers: 4.1% of the field at captain, ROI +3% over all the gamesJaguars: 2.7% of the field at captain, ROI −18% over all the gamesTrevor Lawrence +13%Parker Washington +4%Derrick Henry −3%Bhayshul Tuten −4%Zay Flowers −7%Brenton Strange −18%Jakobi Meyers +3%Jaguars −18%0%5%10%15%20%−20%−10%0%+10%ONE LINEUP IN TENQUIET, PAYSCROWDED, PAYSQUIET, LOSESCROWDED, LOSESOF THE FIELD AT CAPTAINROI AT CAPTAINTrevor Lawrence: 20.2% of the field at captain, ROI +13% over all the gamesParker Washington: 19.8% of the field at captain, ROI +4% over all the gamesDerrick Henry: 15.5% of the field at captain, ROI −3% over all the gamesBhayshul Tuten: 11.5% of the field at captain, ROI −4% over all the gamesZay Flowers: 8.3% of the field at captain, ROI −7% over all the gamesBrenton Strange: 8.1% of the field at captain, ROI −18% over all the gamesJakobi Meyers: 4.1% of the field at captain, ROI +3% over all the gamesJaguars: 2.7% of the field at captain, ROI −18% over all the gamesLawrence +13%Washington +4%Henry −3%Tuten −4%Flowers −7%Strange −18%Meyers +3%Jaguars −18%
RAVENSJAGUARSBUBBLE = HIS SHARE OF THE FIELD · EVERY CAPTAIN AT 2%+ · TOP LEFT IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE
CAPTAINAT CAPTAININ THE FLEXROI AT CAPTAIN
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX20%69%+13%
Parker Washington WR · JAX20%48%+4%
Derrick Henry RB · BAL16%34%−3%
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX12%31%−4%
Zay Flowers WR · BAL8%27%−7%
Brenton Strange TE · JAX8%27%−18%
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX4%30%+3%
Jaguars DST · JAX3%32%−18%

Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX

LAMAR JACKSON AND TYLER HUNTLEY OUT · TUTEN ACTIVE · ROI OVER ALL 10,000 GAMES, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT · — = FEWER THAN 1 LINEUP IN 100 PLAYS HIM THERE

Hill is +24% in the flex and Rodriguez is +34%. Tuten himself is about even in the flex.

PLAYERSALARYAT CAPTAININ THE FLEX
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX$10,600+13%+2%
Zay Flowers WR · BAL$10,400−7%−4%
Derrick Henry RB · BAL$10,200−3%+2%
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX$9,800−4%−3%
Parker Washington WR · JAX$9,400+4%+1%
Joe Fagnano QB · BAL$8,400—−2%
Brenton Strange TE · JAX$7,400−18%−2%
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX$7,000+3%even
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX$6,400—−36%
Jaguars DST · JAX$5,800−18%+1%
Cam Little K · JAX$5,400−16%+2%
Jake Moody K · BAL$4,800—−5%
Mark Andrews TE · BAL$4,400−22%−7%
Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL$4,000—−18%
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL$3,800—−11%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX$3,400—+34%
Justice Hill RB · BAL$3,200+32%+24%
Ravens DST · BAL$3,000—−4%
Josh Cameron WR · JAX$2,800—−4%
Travis Hunter WR · JAX$2,400—+28%
Devontez Walker WR · BAL$2,000—−46%
Nate Boerkircher TE · JAX$1,600—+3%
LeQuint Allen Jr. RB · JAX$1,400—−31%
Josh Cuevas TE · BAL$1,200—+6%
Ameer Abdullah RB · JAX$1,000—−9%
Matt Hibner TE · BAL$600—−39%
Tanner Koziol TE · JAX$200—−42%

Jaguars by 17+, under 39.5 9% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 17 or more in a slow one. Five Jaguars, one quarterback, the Jaguars defense in next to Little. Lawrence is +28% at captain.

Jaguars by 17+, over 39.5 14% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 17 or more in a game that goes over. Five Jaguars and one quarterback. Lawrence is +58% at captain, and Tuten is about even.

Jaguars by 10-16, under 39.5 10% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 10 to 16 in a slow one. Five Jaguars, one quarterback, the Jaguars defense in. Lawrence is +11% at captain.

Jaguars by 10-16, over 39.5 13% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 10 to 16 in a game that goes over. Four and two with both quarterbacks, no kicker and no defense. Lawrence is +31% at captain.

Jaguars by 1-9, under 39.5 14% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 1 to 9 in a slow one. Four and two with a Ravens captain, one quarterback, the Ravens defense in. Henry is +15% at captain.

Jaguars by 1-9, over 39.5 18% OF THE SIMS

Jacksonville by 1 to 9 in a shootout. That's the plan as is.

Ravens win, under 39.5 10% OF THE SIMS

Baltimore wins a slow one. Henry to captain at +55%, four Ravens, the Ravens defense in, both quarterbacks.

Ravens win, over 39.5 12% OF THE SIMS

Baltimore wins a shootout. Flowers to captain at +51%, four Ravens, both quarterbacks, no kicker and no defense.

What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS

How to use it

Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.

If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.

Final thoughts

No read on the game? Captain Lawrence, put Rodriguez and Hill around him with both quarterbacks, and let the total pick your defense.

NOTES

Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite and the total's 39.5. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve with a thumb injury, Huntley is out, and Fagnano, an undrafted rookie, makes his first start.

Tuten's active. The version I wrote this morning, when it looked like he'd sit, is in the drop-down at the top.

My game model's scores average 39.7 points, right on the books' 39.5. Every ROI has DraftKings' cut taken out.

SHOWDOWN ROI: THE RECEIPTS →THE CEILING BOARD →QUICK DRAW SHOWDOWN →EVERY ARTICLE →
HOW IT’S BUILT: 10,000 GAME DRAWS OFF THE LINE AND THE PLAYER PROPS · A 1,668-LINEUP FIELD FROM TWOGUNGPT’S OWN OWNERSHIP MODEL, FOUR FIELDS POOLED · EVERY LINEUP PAID ON THE REAL $333 WILDCAT LADDER, $500K WITH $100K TO FIRST · LAMAR JACKSON AND TYLER HUNTLEY OUT · BHAYSHUL TUTEN ACTIVE · RUN THURSDAY, BEFORE THE INACTIVES
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
THIS IS A HOBBY SITE. FREE TO USE INDEFINITELY.