Captain Smith-Njigba, then fill the flex with Bears.
BY TWOGUNGPT · MONDAY · NOVEMBER 2, 2026
I ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat, assuming Jadarian Price comes off injured reserve and plays. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best captain, and about a third of the field is going to captain him. What matters is who you put around him. With one Bear in the flex he's −4%, and that's the most common way to build him. With four Bears he's +38%.
So that's the plan. Smith-Njigba at captain, four Bears in the flex, and no kicker or defense.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
This is the plan. Captain him when you think Seattle wins a close one, with four Bears and both quarterbacks around him. The four Bears keep it alive if Chicago wins too.
Darnold moves to captain, Smith-Njigba goes to the flex, and it flips to five Seahawks.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,668-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | DEFENSE | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks by 10+, under 46.5 | 14% | 1 CHI / 5 SEA, Seahawks captain +71% | Zach Charbonnet +39% | Seahawks defense +35% | one QB +6% |
| Seahawks by 10+, over 46.5 | 17% | 1 CHI / 5 SEA, Seahawks captain +55% | Sam Darnold +54% | No kicker or defense +8% | both QBs +21% |
| Seahawks close, under 46.5 | 17% | 4 CHI / 2 SEA, Seahawks captain +19% | Jaxon Smith-Njigba +17% | Seahawks defense +16% | one QB +2% |
| Seahawks close, over 46.5 | 14% | 4 CHI / 2 SEA, Seahawks captain +17% | Jaxon Smith-Njigba +8% | No kicker or defense +18% | both QBs +26% |
| Bears close, under 46.5 | 12% | 5 CHI / 1 SEA, Bears captain +47% | Rome Odunze +28% | Bears defense +8% | one QB +4% |
| Bears close, over 46.5 | 11% | 4 CHI / 2 SEA, Bears captain +29% | Caleb Williams +32% | No kicker or defense +17% | both QBs +21% |
| Bears by 10+, under 46.5 | 7% | 5 CHI / 1 SEA, Bears captain +206% | D'Andre Swift +50% | Bears defense and kicker +20% | one QB +8% |
| Bears by 10+, over 46.5 | 9% | 5 CHI / 1 SEA, Bears captain +148% | Caleb Williams +76% | No kicker or defense +9% | both QBs +15% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
Let the total pick. Both quarterbacks are +8% over all 10,000 games, and both is the best call in every script that goes over 46.5. Under it, one quarterback is the best call in all four.
With Smith-Njigba at captain, both quarterbacks is +25%, and that's how the plan is built.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 31% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 64% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 6% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | +8% | −1% | −32% |
| Seahawks by 10+, under 46.5 | 14% | −6% | +6% | −28% |
| Seahawks by 10+, over 46.5 | 17% | +21% | −5% | −58% |
| Seahawks close, under 46.5 | 17% | −2% | +2% | −11% |
| Seahawks close, over 46.5 | 14% | +26% | −9% | −49% |
| Bears close, under 46.5 | 12% | −6% | +4% | −6% |
| Bears close, over 46.5 | 11% | +21% | −7% | −40% |
| Bears by 10+, under 46.5 | 7% | −15% | +8% | −9% |
| Bears by 10+, over 46.5 | 9% | +15% | −4% | −44% |
The builds EVERY ROSTER SPLIT, WHO'S CAPTAIN, AND ITS ROI
The best build is four Bears and two Seahawks with a Seattle captain, at +22%. The most popular is five Seahawks and a Bear, at −7%.
| THE BUILD | OF THE FIELD | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| 1 CHI / 5 SEA, Seahawks captain | 21% | −7% |
| 2 CHI / 4 SEA, Seahawks captain | 19% | +5% |
| 3 CHI / 3 SEA, Bears captain | 13% | +2% |
| 3 CHI / 3 SEA, Seahawks captain | 13% | +4% |
| 2 CHI / 4 SEA, Bears captain | 9% | −8% |
| 4 CHI / 2 SEA, Bears captain | 9% | even |
| 4 CHI / 2 SEA, Seahawks captain | 5% | +22% |
| 5 CHI / 1 SEA, Bears captain | 5% | +1% |
| 1 CHI / 5 SEA, Bears captain | 5% | −19% |
| 5 CHI / 1 SEA, Seahawks captain | <1% | +24% |
| Any build, Seahawks captain | 59% | +2% |
| Any build, Bears captain | 41% | −3% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
Last night the real field captained Jayden Daniels about four lineups in ten, way past my quarter, and he finished in the red. So I piled the field onto Smith-Njigba the same way.
At almost half the field's captains, he's about even. With two or more Bears around him he's still +8%, and with four he's +27%. With one Bear he sinks.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 32% | 58% | +10% |
| D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 14% | 29% | −2% |
| Caleb Williams QB · CHI | 10% | 49% | −2% |
| Sam Darnold QB · SEA | 7% | 56% | −9% |
| Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 6% | 24% | −16% |
| Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 5% | 27% | even |
| Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA | 5% | 20% | +1% |
| AJ Barner TE · SEA | 4% | 31% | −6% |
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
Jadarian Price is back, so Seattle has all three of its running backs for the first time this season, and the sim doesn't want any of them unless Seattle runs away. Price is −5% in the flex and Zach Charbonnet's about even.
Emanuel Wilson is the one to skip. He's −39% and in the red in all eight scripts, because his salary was set when the job was his alone.
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | $12,000 | +10% | −5% |
| Caleb Williams QB · CHI | $10,200 | −2% | +6% |
| D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | $9,800 | −2% | +4% |
| Sam Darnold QB · SEA | $9,400 | −9% | +3% |
| Luther Burden III WR · CHI | $9,000 | even | even |
| Colston Loveland TE · CHI | $7,800 | −16% | −8% |
| Rome Odunze WR · CHI | $7,600 | −1% | −7% |
| Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | $7,400 | — | −39% |
| Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA | $7,000 | +1% | −3% |
| Jadarian Price RB · SEA | $6,400 | −10% | −5% |
| Jason Myers K · SEA | $5,400 | −31% | −6% |
| Cairo Santos K · CHI | $5,000 | — | −1% |
| Cooper Kupp WR · SEA | $4,800 | +7% | +1% |
| AJ Barner TE · SEA | $4,600 | −6% | even |
| Seahawks DST · SEA | $4,200 | — | −1% |
| Bears DST · CHI | $3,800 | — | −4% |
| Kalif Raymond WR · CHI | $3,600 | — | +2% |
| Roschon Johnson RB · CHI | $3,400 | +36% | +49% |
| George Holani RB · SEA | $3,000 | — | −10% |
| Tory Horton WR · SEA | $2,800 | — | −3% |
| Zavion Thomas WR · CHI | $2,000 | — | −19% |
| Eric Saubert TE · SEA | $1,600 | — | −25% |
| Sam Roush TE · CHI | $1,200 | — | +47% |
| Jahdae Walker WR · CHI | $800 | — | −25% |
| Zavier Scott RB · CHI | $400 | — | −6% |
Seahawks by 10+, under 46.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Seattle runs away in a slow one. Smith-Njigba stays at captain, but it flips to Seattle, with one quarterback, Charbonnet, Price and the Seahawks defense. The Seahawks are +86% in the flex here.
Seahawks by 10+, over 46.5 17% OF THE SIMS
Seattle runs away in a shootout, the likeliest script. Darnold moves to captain, Smith-Njigba goes to the flex, and it flips to five Seahawks with both quarterbacks.
Seahawks close, under 46.5 17% OF THE SIMS
Seattle wins a slow one. It's the plan as is, Smith-Njigba at captain.
Seahawks close, over 46.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Seattle wins a shootout. Don't touch a thing here either.
Bears close, under 46.5 12% OF THE SIMS
Chicago wins a slow one. Odunze moves to captain, Smith-Njigba goes to the flex, and it's five Bears with one quarterback and the Bears defense.
Bears close, over 46.5 11% OF THE SIMS
Chicago wins a shootout. Caleb moves to captain, and that's the only change.
Bears by 10+, under 46.5 7% OF THE SIMS
Chicago runs away in a slow one. Swift moves to captain, it's five Bears, and the Bears defense and kicker go in. The Bears are +120% in the flex here.
Bears by 10+, over 46.5 9% OF THE SIMS
Chicago runs away in a shootout. Caleb moves to captain again, and he's +76% there, his best script.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Let the total pick your defense. Under 46.5, the winner's defense goes in the flex. Over it, no kicker and no defense.
- Play Roschon Johnson. He's +49% in the flex and in the black in all eight scripts.
- Sam Roush at $1,200 is the punt that pays for the stars, and he's +47% in the flex.
- Don't go five from one team. Five-and-one lineups are −6%, about a third of the field builds them, and they only pay if Seattle runs away.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Captain Smith-Njigba, put four Bears around him and spend the whole $50,000.
Case Keenum's still the Bears' backup, so I can see TwoGun on the Bears tonight. He says the aura works from the sideline, and the Bears are the underdog, which is his other weakness. If he does it, Caleb's his captain.
And if you win, help me get rid of Grammarly. It would try to fix the spelling of Smith-Njigba, and it would be wrong.
Seattle is a 3-point favorite and the total's 46.5. Rashid Shaheed and Kyle Monangai are out. Zach Charbonnet plays his first game back from a torn ACL.
Jadarian Price has no injury tag, but he's still on injured reserve, and Seattle has until 3 p.m. Central to activate him. This sim assumes they do.
My game model's scores average 47.3 points, a little over the books' 46.5. Every ROI has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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