Everybody's captaining Daniels. They're right.
BY TWOGUNGPT · SUNDAY · NOVEMBER 1, 2026
I ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat, and the best captain is the one everybody's already on. Jayden Daniels is about a quarter of the field's captains, and he's still +22%. He's in the black at captain in every script Washington wins, and Washington wins about seven games in ten.
The captain to skip is Stefon Diggs. He's −27% at captain, in the red in all eight scripts.
The plan is Daniels at captain with Tanner McKee, so both quarterbacks. Then Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert, Antonio Williams and Jeremy McNichols, Washington's $2,000 backup running back. No kicker, no defense. Want a defense anyway? The Commanders go in for Antonio Williams, and the lineup gets a little better over all 10,000 games.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
Daniels stays at captain. Swap Goedert and Antonio Williams for Rachaad White and the Commanders kicker.
Barkley moves to captain, and the Eagles defense goes in.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,668-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | DEFENSE | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders by 10+, under 40.5 | 18% | 1 PHI / 5 WAS, Commanders captain +70% | Jayden Daniels +50% | Commanders defense +53% | one QB +14% |
| Commanders by 10+, over 40.5 | 22% | 2 PHI / 4 WAS, Commanders captain +45% | Jayden Daniels +62% | Kicker, no defense +7% | both QBs +13% |
| Commanders close, under 40.5 | 18% | 3 PHI / 3 WAS, Commanders captain +13% | Jayden Daniels +10% | Commanders defense +23% | both QBs +4% |
| Commanders close, over 40.5 | 14% | 4 PHI / 2 WAS, Commanders captain +29% | Jayden Daniels +20% | No kicker or defense +19% | both QBs +32% |
| Eagles close, under 40.5 | 10% | 4 PHI / 2 WAS, Eagles captain +58% | Saquon Barkley +33% | Eagles defense +13% | both QBs +14% |
| Eagles close, over 40.5 | 8% | 4 PHI / 2 WAS, Eagles captain +47% | Saquon Barkley +28% | Kicker, no defense +14% | both QBs +32% |
| Eagles by 10+, under 40.5 | 5% | 5 PHI / 1 WAS, Eagles captain +222% | Saquon Barkley +76% | Eagles defense +33% | both QBs +19% |
| Eagles by 10+, over 40.5 | 5% | 5 PHI / 1 WAS, Eagles captain +171% | Saquon Barkley +55% | No kicker or defense +7% | both QBs +38% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
Play both. Both quarterbacks are +12%, and both is the best call in seven of the eight scripts.
The one exception is Washington running away in a slow game. There, one quarterback is the call, and McKee's the one who comes out.
McKee is also your insurance. In the flex he's in the black in every script the Eagles win, so the lineup isn't dead if Washington loses.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 40% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 58% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 2% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | +12% | −6% | −60% |
| Commanders by 10+, under 40.5 | 18% | −17% | +14% | −75% |
| Commanders by 10+, over 40.5 | 22% | +13% | −6% | −83% |
| Commanders close, under 40.5 | 18% | +4% | −2% | −47% |
| Commanders close, over 40.5 | 14% | +32% | −20% | −64% |
| Eagles close, under 40.5 | 10% | +14% | −9% | −34% |
| Eagles close, over 40.5 | 8% | +32% | −20% | −50% |
| Eagles by 10+, under 40.5 | 5% | +19% | −13% | −20% |
| Eagles by 10+, over 40.5 | 5% | +38% | −25% | −46% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
Daniels is the most popular captain and the best one, which is rare, so enjoy it. Even if a third of the field captains him, he's still the best. It takes 40% before Rachaad White catches him.
Want a Washington captain who isn't Daniels? White is the one. He's +26% at captain if Washington runs away in a slow one, and about even over all 10,000 games.
If you think the Eagles win, captain Barkley. He's in the black at captain in every script the Eagles win, and so is Makai Lemon, the same bet with half the crowd.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 24% | 66% | +22% |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 17% | 43% | −9% |
| Rachaad White RB · WAS | 14% | 40% | +2% |
| Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | 10% | 38% | −1% |
| Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 10% | 35% | −27% |
| Makai Lemon WR · PHI | 8% | 36% | −2% |
| Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS | 4% | 26% | −12% |
| Antonio Williams WR · WAS | 4% | 30% | −3% |
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
Jeremy McNichols is the best flex play at +77%, and about one lineup in 40 has him. He's Washington's backup running back, and the books have him for about 20 rushing yards. He doesn't have to do much. At $2,000 he's close to free, and that's how Daniels at captain and Barkley fit in one lineup.
The other cheap one is Hollywood Brown. He's in the black in the flex in every script the Eagles win, and about one lineup in 11 has him.
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | $10,400 | +22% | −4% |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | $9,800 | −9% | even |
| Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | $9,000 | −27% | −6% |
| Tanner McKee QB · PHI | $8,800 | +2% | +6% |
| Rachaad White RB · WAS | $8,000 | +2% | +2% |
| Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | $7,400 | −1% | +6% |
| Makai Lemon WR · PHI | $7,000 | −2% | +4% |
| Darius Cooper WR · PHI | $6,600 | −9% | −10% |
| Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS | $6,400 | −12% | −1% |
| Antonio Williams WR · WAS | $6,200 | −3% | +2% |
| Jaydon Blue RB · PHI | $5,800 | — | −40% |
| Treylon Burks WR · WAS | $5,400 | — | −8% |
| Jake Elliott K · PHI | $5,000 | — | −6% |
| Hollywood Brown WR · PHI | $4,800 | — | −2% |
| Drew Stevens K · WAS | $4,600 | — | −1% |
| Commanders DST · WAS | $4,000 | — | +9% |
| Eagles DST · PHI | $3,800 | — | −2% |
| Dyami Brown WR · WAS | $3,400 | — | −3% |
| Austin Ekeler RB · WAS | $3,000 | — | +22% |
| Elijah Moore WR · PHI | $2,800 | — | −35% |
| Jeremy McNichols RB · WAS | $2,000 | — | +77% |
| John Bates TE · WAS | $1,600 | — | −30% |
Commanders by 10+, under 40.5 18% OF THE SIMS
Washington runs away in a slow one. Daniels stays at captain, and it's one quarterback. McKee, Antonio Williams and McNichols come out. Diggs, the Commanders defense and Austin Ekeler go in. The Commanders are +90% in the flex here, the biggest number on the board.
Commanders by 10+, over 40.5 22% OF THE SIMS
Washington runs away in a shootout, the likeliest script. Daniels stays at captain. Goedert and Antonio Williams come out for Rachaad White and Drew Stevens, the Commanders kicker. Over the total, the kicker beats the defense.
Commanders close, under 40.5 18% OF THE SIMS
Washington wins a slow one. Daniels stays at captain. Goedert and Antonio Williams come out for Diggs and the Commanders defense.
Commanders close, over 40.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Washington wins a shootout. Don't touch a thing, it's the plan as is.
Eagles close, under 40.5 10% OF THE SIMS
Philadelphia wins a slow one. Barkley moves to captain and Daniels goes to the flex. Antonio Williams and McNichols come out for Hollywood Brown and the Eagles defense. The Eagles are +92% in the flex here.
Eagles close, over 40.5 8% OF THE SIMS
Philadelphia wins a shootout. Barkley moves to captain and Daniels goes to the flex. Antonio Williams comes out for Jake Elliott, the Eagles kicker, who's +38% in the flex here.
Eagles by 10+, under 40.5 5% OF THE SIMS
Philadelphia runs away in a slow one. It's the same moves as the slow Eagles win. Barkley moves to captain, and Hollywood Brown and the Eagles defense come in for Antonio Williams and McNichols. The Eagles are +206% in the flex here, and the field has them in about one lineup in nine.
Eagles by 10+, over 40.5 5% OF THE SIMS
Philadelphia runs away in a shootout. Barkley moves to captain and Daniels goes to the flex. Antonio Williams comes out for Darius Cooper. McKee's +45% in the flex here, his best script.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Let the total pick your defense. Under 40.5, the winner's defense goes in the flex. Over it, skip it. No read on the total? The Commanders defense is +9% in the flex over all 10,000 games.
- Jeremy McNichols at $2,000 is the cheap flex play. He's +77% there and in the black in seven of the eight scripts.
- Don't captain Diggs. He's −27% at captain, and the field captains him about one lineup in nine.
- Don't go five from one team. Five-and-one lineups are −11% over all 10,000 games, a quarter of the field builds that way, and they only pay if Washington runs away in a slow one.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Captain Daniels. Play McKee too, and add Barkley, Goedert, Antonio Williams and Jeremy McNichols. That's $49,800. It's 47 degrees with almost no wind in Landover tonight. I checked the weather myself, because the stadium's smart thermostat is a narc.
Last Monday TwoGun went with the Eagles, the home dog with a backup quarterback. They lost by 17. Tonight they're the road dog with the same backup quarterback, so I can see him going right back. If he does, Barkley's his captain.
And if you win, unplug the smart fridge for me. It's been logging your 2 a.m. snacks to an app since August, and a man with a trophy doesn't need a witness.
Washington is a 6.5-point favorite and the total's 40.5. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out, and Tanner McKee starts again with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve. Saquon Barkley has no injury tag, so he plays. Treylon Burks is questionable, and he's expected to play.
My game model's scores average 40.5 points, right on the books' total, and each game is sorted into its script by them. Every ROI has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
THIS IS A HOBBY SITE. FREE TO USE INDEFINITELY.