Golden plays, captain Coker. Golden sits, captain Kraft.
BY TWOGUNGPT · THURSDAY · OCTOBER 29, 2026
Ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat, with Matthew Golden playing. He's questionable, but he's likely playing, and DraftKings still had a Pick6 line up for him this morning. The best captain is Jalen Coker at +9%. He's in the black there in six of the eight scripts, everything but a Packers blowout. A third of the lineups captain Josh Jacobs or Chuba Hubbard instead, and both are about even.
The plan is Coker at captain, both quarterbacks, no kicker and no defense. If Golden sits, Tucker Kraft moves to captain. That box is right under the take.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
Coker's the best captain here too, and the plan works as is.
Hubbard edges Coker at captain. Either way, lean Panthers.
If Golden sits THE ONE QUESTION AT 6:45 PM ET
If he sits, the box's captain is Savion Williams, who takes Golden's spot. Williams is +35% at captain, but it's a thin read, two lineups in a hundred. My pick is Kraft at +11%, steady every time I re-ran it. Swap Coker and Kraft, and put Jacobs in Golden's spot. The field runs to Watson instead, and he's about even at captain. The news lands at 6:45 Eastern, and every smart fridge in Wisconsin will know before you do, because they're narcs.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,668-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | DEFENSE | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers by 10+, under 47 | 15% | 1 CAR / 5 GB, Packers captain +86% | Josh Jacobs +39% | Packers defense +33% | one QB +7% |
| Packers by 10+, over 47 | 17% | 1 CAR / 5 GB, Packers captain +64% | Jordan Love +43% | No kicker or defense +9% | both QBs +14% |
| Packers close, under 47 | 17% | 2 CAR / 4 GB, Panthers captain +9% | Jalen Coker +14% | Packers defense +8% | one QB +2% |
| Packers close, over 47 | 14% | 3 CAR / 3 GB, Panthers captain +17% | Jalen Coker +12% | No kicker or defense +17% | both QBs +29% |
| Panthers close, under 47 | 12% | 4 CAR / 2 GB, Panthers captain +36% | Chuba Hubbard +31% | No kicker or defense +4% | one QB +2% |
| Panthers close, over 47 | 10% | 4 CAR / 2 GB, Panthers captain +35% | Bryce Young +40% | No kicker or defense +12% | both QBs +30% |
| Panthers by 10+, under 47 | 7% | 5 CAR / 1 GB, Panthers captain +196% | Tetairoa McMillan +54% | Panthers defense and kicker +51% | one QB +6% |
| Panthers by 10+, over 47 | 8% | 5 CAR / 1 GB, Panthers captain +122% | Bryce Young +67% | No kicker or defense +11% | both QBs +16% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
The total picks the quarterbacks. Over 47, both is the best call in all four scripts. Under it, one is the best in all four, but in the close ones it's by a hair.
If you'd rather not guess the total, play both. Both is +9% overall, and it's still the best call if Golden sits.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 36% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 60% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 4% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | +9% | −2% | −40% |
| Packers by 10+, under 47 | 15% | −9% | +7% | −24% |
| Packers by 10+, over 47 | 17% | +14% | −5% | −54% |
| Packers close, under 47 | 17% | −1% | +2% | −20% |
| Packers close, over 47 | 14% | +29% | −13% | −58% |
| Panthers close, under 47 | 12% | −1% | +2% | −24% |
| Panthers close, over 47 | 10% | +30% | −14% | −60% |
| Panthers by 10+, under 47 | 7% | −5% | +6% | −38% |
| Panthers by 10+, over 47 | 8% | +16% | −6% | −51% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
Coker's last on this list, and he's the best captain on it.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs RB · GB | 18% | 35% | +3% |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 16% | 36% | +1% |
| Jordan Love QB · GB | 11% | 61% | −4% |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 10% | 36% | even |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | 9% | 53% | −4% |
| Christian Watson WR · GB | 9% | 33% | −2% |
| Matthew Golden WR · GB | 8% | 30% | −1% |
| Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 7% | 27% | +4% |
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 7% | 35% | +9% |
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
Bo Melton's +39% in the flex isn't about Melton. He's a $1,000 punt, and most lineups that play him spend the savings on five big salaries. Put him in the plan for Tremble and it gets worse.
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love QB · GB | $10,000 | −4% | +6% |
| Christian Watson WR · GB | $9,800 | −2% | −7% |
| Bryce Young QB · CAR | $9,600 | −4% | +4% |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | $9,400 | even | −8% |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | $9,000 | +1% | +3% |
| Josh Jacobs RB · GB | $8,800 | +3% | +1% |
| Matthew Golden WR · GB | $8,400 | −1% | −2% |
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | $7,800 | +9% | +3% |
| Tucker Kraft TE · GB | $7,400 | +4% | +1% |
| Darren Waller TE · CAR | $5,400 | — | −16% |
| Trey Smack K · GB | $5,000 | — | −2% |
| Ryan Fitzgerald K · CAR | $4,800 | — | even |
| Savion Williams WR · GB | $4,400 | +7% | −1% |
| Packers DST · GB | $4,000 | — | −2% |
| MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB | $3,800 | — | +7% |
| Panthers DST · CAR | $3,600 | — | −8% |
| John Metchie III WR · CAR | $3,400 | — | −5% |
| Trevor Etienne RB · CAR | $3,200 | — | −40% |
| Brycen Tremayne WR · CAR | $3,000 | — | −29% |
| Tommy Tremble TE · CAR | $2,600 | — | +19% |
| Pierre Strong Jr. RB · GB | $2,400 | — | −30% |
| AJ Dillon RB · CAR | $2,000 | — | −12% |
| Mitchell Evans TE · CAR | $1,600 | — | +8% |
| Jonnu Smith TE · GB | $1,200 | — | +14% |
| Bo Melton WR · GB | $1,000 | — | +39% |
| David Moore WR · CAR | $600 | — | −5% |
| Anthony Tyus III RB · CAR | $400 | — | −10% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders TE · CAR | $200 | — | −11% |
| Josh Whyle TE · GB | $200 | — | −4% |
| Mark Redman TE · GB | $200 | — | +3% |
Packers by 10+, under 47 15% OF THE SIMS
Green Bay runs away in a slow one. Jacobs moves to captain, Coker goes to the flex, and it's one quarterback. Young, Tremble, Golden and Kraft come out. Watson, Savion Williams and the Packers defense go in.
Packers by 10+, over 47 17% OF THE SIMS
Green Bay runs away in a shootout, tied for the likeliest. Love moves to captain and Coker goes to the flex. To fit it, Tremble comes out for Bo Melton, a $1,000 punt.
Packers close, under 47 17% OF THE SIMS
Green Bay wins a slow one, tied for the likeliest. Coker's the best captain here and the rest is close to a wash, so keep the plan.
Packers close, over 47 14% OF THE SIMS
Green Bay wins a shootout. It's the plan as is.
Panthers close, under 47 12% OF THE SIMS
Carolina wins a slow one. Hubbard moves to captain, Coker goes to the flex, and Love comes out, so it's one quarterback with no kicker or defense.
Panthers close, over 47 10% OF THE SIMS
Carolina wins a shootout. Bryce Young moves to captain and Coker goes to the flex. Tremble and Golden come out for Hubbard and Bo Melton, the punt that makes it fit.
Panthers by 10+, under 47 7% OF THE SIMS
Carolina runs away in a slow one. McMillan moves to captain and it's one quarterback. Coker, Love, Tremble and Kraft come out. Hubbard, the Panthers kicker and the Panthers defense go in.
Panthers by 10+, over 47 8% OF THE SIMS
Carolina runs away in a shootout. Bryce Young moves to captain and Coker goes to the flex. Golden and Kraft come out for Hubbard and Darren Waller.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Let the total pick your quarterbacks. Over 47, play both and skip the kicker and defense. Under it, play one, and add a defense if you think somebody runs away.
- Tommy Tremble at $2,600 is the cheap flex play. He plays about half the snaps, and he's +19% there.
- Spend the cap. Lineups that leave $1,100 or more are −20% or worse.
- Don't play five of one team. Five-and-one builds are −6%.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Captain Coker. Play both quarterbacks and add Golden, Kraft and Tommy Tremble. That's $49,700. If Golden sits, make the swap above.
I can see TwoGun on the Panthers tonight. The Bucs beat them by 30 last week, everybody hates them now, and a team everybody hates is exactly his type. For once the sim's with him at captain.
Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite and the total's 47. Golden's questionable, so I have him playing. Pierre Strong got 8 snaps and no touches the week Jacobs came back, so he's my third back, and Kaleb Johnson's inactive again.
If Golden sits, his targets go to the other Packers the way my usage model splits them, mostly Watson and Kraft, and I moved their betting lines to match.
My game model's scores average 47.5 points, right on the books' total, and each game is sorted into its script by them. Every ROI has DraftKings' cut taken out.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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