
Ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat. The best captain is Darius Cooper at +56%. He moves up with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out. He's not the man who scores the most. CeeDee Lamb, Saquon Barkley or Javonte Williams is the top scorer in about half the games. Cooper is about one game in 30. His lineups still win about one game in 18. A cheap captain buys the Cowboys who do the scoring, and nothing splits when they hit. He's in the black at captain in seven of the eight scripts, and close to even in the eighth, Dallas running away in a slow one. Most people captain Lamb or Barkley. Lamb's −6% there, and Barkley's barely ahead.
The idea is a loaded lineup. Both quarterbacks and the best Cowboys. Cooper and Makai Lemon project about the same, and the sim can't tell them apart. Cooper's a little cheaper, and the plan at the bottom only fits with him. Spend what he saves. Cooper captains that leave about $4,000 on the table are −37%.
It's the plan as is: Cooper at captain, both quarterbacks, no kicker, no defense. Three Cowboys ties four here.
Cooper stays at captain. Swap Javonte Williams for Barkley.
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | BEST FLEX PLAY | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys by 10+, under 44 | 11% | 5 DAL / 1 PHI, Cowboys captain +94% | Javonte Williams +36% | Cowboys DST +119% | one QB +12% |
| Cowboys by 10+, over 44 | 20% | 4 DAL / 2 PHI, Cowboys captain +41% | Dak Prescott +40% | Elijah Moore +61% | one QB +5% |
| Cowboys close, under 44 | 13% | 4 DAL / 2 PHI, Eagles captain +21% | Darius Cooper +37% | Elijah Moore +38% | no QB +23% |
| Cowboys close, over 44 | 21% | 4 DAL / 2 PHI, Eagles captain +16% | Darius Cooper +73% | Elijah Moore +70% | both QBs +27% |
| Eagles close, under 44 | 9% | 2 DAL / 4 PHI, Eagles captain +57% | Darius Cooper +68% | Eagles DST +85% | no QB +34% |
| Eagles close, over 44 | 15% | 2 DAL / 4 PHI, Eagles captain +58% | Darius Cooper +91% | Elijah Moore +57% | both QBs +50% |
| Eagles by 10+, under 44 | 4% | 1 DAL / 5 PHI, Eagles captain +223% | Saquon Barkley +69% | Eagles DST +170% | no QB +29% |
| Eagles by 10+, over 44 | 6% | 1 DAL / 5 PHI, Eagles captain +231% | Darius Cooper +108% | Tanner McKee +70% | both QBs +70% |
The total picks the quarterbacks again. Over 44, both is the best call in three of the four scripts. Under it, none is the best in three of the four. The odd one out both times is a Dallas blowout, where one quarterback wins.
Under is the shakier half. Sunday's Paris game stayed under, and both quarterbacks still beat one in the real field. If you'd rather not guess the total, play both. Both is +11% overall.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 21% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 72% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 6% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | +11% | −2% | −15% |
| Cowboys by 10+, under 44 | 11% | −41% | +12% | +3% |
| Cowboys by 10+, over 44 | 20% | −5% | +5% | −46% |
| Cowboys close, under 44 | 13% | −18% | +3% | +23% |
| Cowboys close, over 44 | 21% | +27% | −5% | −32% |
| Eagles close, under 44 | 9% | +2% | −4% | +34% |
| Eagles close, over 44 | 15% | +50% | −12% | −32% |
| Eagles by 10+, under 44 | 4% | +16% | −7% | +29% |
| Eagles by 10+, over 44 | 6% | +70% | −17% | −37% |
A third of the lineups captain Lamb or Barkley. Cooper's better than both, and about one lineup in 25 plays him there.
Some of his edge is the field, which captains Lemon more than Cooper. Give Cooper Lemon's captain ownership and he's +35%, still ahead of Lemon's +16%. Give him more than Lemon and they're about even.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 18% | 38% | −6% |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 16% | 32% | +3% |
| Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 14% | 29% | −1% |
| Dak Prescott QB · DAL | 14% | 58% | −1% |
| Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | 9% | 33% | −1% |
| George Pickens WR · DAL | 7% | 29% | +8% |
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | $11,000 | −6% | −1% |
| Javonte Williams RB · DAL | $10,600 | −1% | even |
| Dak Prescott QB · DAL | $10,400 | −1% | +5% |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | $9,600 | +3% | +3% |
| George Pickens WR · DAL | $9,000 | +8% | −1% |
| Tanner McKee QB · PHI | $8,600 | −17% | +1% |
| Dameon Pierce RB · PHI | $7,600 | — | −22% |
| Dallas Goedert TE · PHI | $6,400 | −1% | +8% |
| Brandon Aubrey K · DAL | $5,400 | — | −11% |
| Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL | $5,000 | +6% | −1% |
| Jake Elliott K · PHI | $4,800 | — | −7% |
| Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | $4,400 | −8% | −2% |
| Cowboys DST · DAL | $4,000 | — | −5% |
| Makai Lemon WR · PHI | $3,800 | +17% | −1% |
| Eagles DST · PHI | $3,400 | — | −8% |
| Darius Cooper WR · PHI | $3,200 | +56% | +7% |
| Tyler Goodson RB · DAL | $2,000 | — | −19% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford TE · DAL | $1,800 | — | −10% |
| Johnny Mundt TE · PHI | $1,600 | — | −28% |
| Emari Demercado RB · DAL | $1,400 | — | −61% |
| Jonathan Mingo WR · DAL | $1,000 | — | −20% |
| Elijah Moore WR · PHI | $800 | — | +52% |
| Hunter Luepke RB · DAL | $400 | — | −5% |
Dallas runs away in a slow one. Javonte Williams moves to captain and Cooper goes to the flex. McKee and Goedert come out. The Cowboys defense and Brandon Aubrey go in. One quarterback, five Cowboys.
Dallas runs away in a shootout. Dak moves to captain and Cooper goes to the flex. McKee comes out and Ryan Flournoy goes in. One quarterback, no kicker, no defense.
Dallas wins a slow one. Cooper stays at captain. Both quarterbacks and Goedert come out. Lamb, Barkley and the Cowboys defense go in.
Dallas wins a shootout, the likeliest script. It's the plan as is.
Philadelphia wins a slow one. Cooper stays at captain. Both quarterbacks and Pickens come out. Lamb, Barkley and the Eagles defense go in.
Philadelphia wins a shootout. Cooper stays at captain and both quarterbacks stay. Javonte Williams comes out and Barkley goes in.
Philadelphia runs away in a slow one. Barkley moves to captain and Cooper goes to the flex. Both quarterbacks, Pickens and Javonte come out. Lamb, Dameon Pierce and the Eagles defense go in.
Philadelphia runs away in a shootout. Cooper stays at captain with both quarterbacks. Pickens and Javonte come out, and Barkley and Dameon Pierce go in.
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
No read on the game? Captain Cooper. Play both quarterbacks and add Goedert, George Pickens and Javonte Williams. That's $49,800. I'd enter it myself, but the loading bar's been at 99% since Sunday, and loading bars are liars.
TwoGun's on the Eagles tonight, the home underdog with the backup quarterback. Obviously. This time the sim's with him at captain, so make it Cooper. McKee at captain is −17%.
Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite and the total's 44. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve, so Tanner McKee starts. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out. Dallas Goedert has no injury tag after a full practice Saturday, so he plays. Saquon Barkley's questionable, but he's likely playing.
I ran this Monday morning, before the inactives. If somebody surprising sits, the plan changes with him.
Every ROI here has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%. A plus sign means you beat it.