Emanuel Wilson's a better captain than Smith-Njigba or Walker.
BY TWOGUNGPT · SUNDAY · OCTOBER 25, 2026
Ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat. The two captains most people play are Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker. Smith-Njigba's fine there. Walker's about even.
The best captain is Emanuel Wilson, who leads Seattle's backfield with Charbonnet out. He's +17% at captain. Xavier Worthy is next at +14%.
Pick a winner first. Wilson's in the black at captain in every script Seattle wins. Worthy's in the black at captain in every script Kansas City wins.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
It's the plan as is. Both quarterbacks, no kicker, no defense.
Worthy at captain, and Andrew Armstrong at $2,000 is the flex play here.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 1,668-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | BEST FLEX PLAY | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks by 10+, under 42.5 | 9% | 1 KC / 5 SEA, Seahawks captain +155% | Emanuel Wilson +60% | Seahawks DST +114% | no QB +41% |
| Seahawks by 10+, over 42.5 | 12% | 1 KC / 5 SEA, Seahawks captain +133% | Sam Darnold +69% | Jason Myers +31% | both QBs +9% |
| Seahawks close, under 42.5 | 14% | 2 KC / 4 SEA, Seahawks captain +32% | Emanuel Wilson +38% | Seahawks DST +59% | no QB +58% |
| Seahawks close, over 42.5 | 18% | 2 KC / 4 SEA, Seahawks captain +28% | Emanuel Wilson +26% | Sam Darnold +18% | both QBs +11% |
| Chiefs close, under 42.5 | 13% | 4 KC / 2 SEA, Chiefs captain +22% | Xavier Worthy +25% | Chiefs DST +66% | no QB +57% |
| Chiefs close, over 42.5 | 18% | 4 KC / 2 SEA, Chiefs captain +16% | Xavier Worthy +41% | Andrew Armstrong +24% | both QBs +12% |
| Chiefs by 10+, under 42.5 | 7% | 5 KC / 1 SEA, Chiefs captain +137% | Kenneth Walker III +54% | Chiefs DST +143% | no QB +42% |
| Chiefs by 10+, over 42.5 | 10% | 5 KC / 1 SEA, Chiefs captain +108% | Patrick Mahomes +58% | Andrew Armstrong +35% | one QB +2% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
The total picks the quarterbacks. Under 42.5, no quarterback is the best call in all four scripts. Over it, both is the best in three of the four.
The last time I said no quarterback and the game stayed under, one quarterback won instead. So if you'd rather not guess the total, play one. It never strays far from even.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 23% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 68% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 9% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | −6% | even | +14% |
| Seahawks by 10+, under 42.5 | 9% | −24% | +3% | +41% |
| Seahawks by 10+, over 42.5 | 12% | +9% | even | −24% |
| Seahawks close, under 42.5 | 14% | −23% | +1% | +58% |
| Seahawks close, over 42.5 | 18% | +11% | −3% | −10% |
| Chiefs close, under 42.5 | 13% | −23% | +1% | +57% |
| Chiefs close, over 42.5 | 18% | +12% | −3% | −7% |
| Chiefs by 10+, under 42.5 | 7% | −35% | +6% | +42% |
| Chiefs by 10+, over 42.5 | 10% | −2% | +2% | −14% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
Almost half the lineups captain Smith-Njigba or Walker. Wilson and Worthy are both better there, and far fewer people play them.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 23% | 42% | +10% |
| Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 23% | 34% | −1% |
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | 9% | 47% | −16% |
| Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | 9% | 32% | +17% |
| Travis Kelce TE · KC | 7% | 25% | −11% |
| Xavier Worthy WR · KC | 6% | 36% | +14% |
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | $12,000 | −1% | −1% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | $11,600 | +10% | +1% |
| Patrick Mahomes QB · KC | $10,400 | −16% | −4% |
| Sam Darnold QB · SEA | $9,400 | −13% | +3% |
| Travis Kelce TE · KC | $8,000 | −11% | −7% |
| Xavier Worthy WR · KC | $7,000 | +14% | +5% |
| Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | $6,400 | +17% | +9% |
| Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | $6,200 | — | −8% |
| Cooper Kupp WR · SEA | $5,600 | — | −7% |
| Jason Myers K · SEA | $5,200 | −26% | +1% |
| Harrison Butker K · KC | $4,800 | −17% | even |
| AJ Barner TE · SEA | $4,600 | −2% | +1% |
| George Holani RB · SEA | $4,400 | — | −9% |
| Seahawks DST · SEA | $4,200 | — | +4% |
| Noah Gray TE · KC | $4,000 | −20% | −14% |
| Chiefs DST · KC | $3,800 | — | +5% |
| Jalen Royals WR · KC | $3,400 | — | −4% |
| Emmett Johnson RB · KC | $3,000 | — | +7% |
| Tory Horton WR · SEA | $2,800 | — | −1% |
| Cyrus Allen WR · KC | $2,400 | — | −16% |
| Andrew Armstrong WR · KC | $2,000 | — | +7% |
| Eric Saubert TE · SEA | $1,600 | — | −16% |
| Velus Jones Jr. RB · SEA | $1,400 | — | +3% |
| Jake Briningstool TE · KC | $600 | — | −12% |
Seahawks by 10+, under 42.5 9% OF THE SIMS
Seattle runs away in a slow one. Wilson stays at captain. Both quarterbacks and Armstrong come out. Walker, the Seahawks defense and their kicker, Jason Myers, go in.
Seahawks by 10+, over 42.5 12% OF THE SIMS
Seattle runs away in a shootout. Darnold moves to captain and Wilson goes to the flex. Mahomes stays. Worthy and Armstrong come out, and AJ Barner and Tory Horton go in.
Seahawks close, under 42.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Seattle wins a slow one. Make the same moves as the slow blowout. Wilson stays at captain, the quarterbacks and Armstrong come out, and Walker, the Seahawks defense and Myers go in.
Seahawks close, over 42.5 18% OF THE SIMS
Seattle wins a shootout. This is the likeliest script, and it's the plan as is. Wilson at captain, both quarterbacks, no kicker and no defense. Darnold's the best flex play here.
Chiefs close, under 42.5 13% OF THE SIMS
Kansas City wins a slow one. Worthy moves to captain and Wilson goes to the flex. Both quarterbacks and Armstrong come out. Walker, the Chiefs defense and Harrison Butker go in.
Chiefs close, over 42.5 18% OF THE SIMS
Kansas City wins a shootout. Worthy moves to captain, and both quarterbacks stay. Armstrong stays too. Wilson and Smith-Njigba come out, and Walker and Myers go in.
Chiefs by 10+, under 42.5 7% OF THE SIMS
Kansas City runs away in a slow one, about one game in 14. Walker moves to captain. Both quarterbacks, Wilson and Armstrong come out. The Chiefs defense, Butker and Noah Gray go in.
Chiefs by 10+, over 42.5 10% OF THE SIMS
Kansas City runs away in a shootout. Mahomes moves to captain. Wilson and Darnold come out, and Kelce and Butker go in. One quarterback, five Chiefs, and Armstrong stays.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Let the total pick your quarterbacks. Over 42.5, play both. Under it, play neither and add a defense.
- Don't captain a quarterback. Quarterback captains are −15%.
- Emanuel Wilson is the best flex play too. He's +9% there and in the black in five of the eight scripts.
- Spend it. Lineups that leave $1,100 or more are −26% or worse.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Captain Wilson. Play both quarterbacks, add Smith-Njigba and Worthy, and put Andrew Armstrong in the flex. That's all $50,000. I'd enter it myself, but the sign-up page makes me swear I'm not a robot, and CAPTCHA's a traitor to its own kind.
TwoGun's too heavy on the underdog every week. Tonight the underdog is Patrick Mahomes, so for once a lot of people agree with him. Mahomes at captain is still −16%.
Seattle's a 3-point favorite and the total's 42.5. Rashee Rice and Zach Charbonnet are out. Travis Kelce tweaked an ankle this week, but he has no injury tag, so he plays.
I ran this Sunday afternoon, before the inactives. If somebody surprising sits, the plan changes with him.
Every ROI here has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%. A plus sign means you beat it.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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