Germie Bernard if the Steelers win. Kendre Miller if the Saints do.
BY TWOGUNGPT · SATURDAY · OCTOBER 24, 2026
Ran it 10,000 times against the real Wildcat. Pick a winner first. If it's Pittsburgh, captain Germie Bernard. He's the best captain in every script the Steelers win. If it's New Orleans, captain Kendre Miller. He's the best captain in every script the Saints win.
Miller is the flex play too. He's +18% there and in the black in six of the eight scripts.
The two captains most people play are Jaylen Warren and Chris Olave. Warren is barely in the black. Olave is −9% at captain.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
Kendre Miller is one of the two Saints, and he's in the black here too.
Miller at captain is the dart. Hardly anybody plays him there.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 583-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | BEST FLEX PLAY | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers by 10+, under 44.5 | 10% | 5 PIT / 1 NO, Steelers captain +126% | Germie Bernard +52% | Steelers DST +113% | one QB +10% |
| Steelers by 10+, over 44.5 | 14% | 5 PIT / 1 NO, Steelers captain +103% | Germie Bernard +59% | Chris Boswell +26% | both QBs +15% |
| Steelers close, under 44.5 | 14% | 5 PIT / 1 NO, Steelers captain +30% | Germie Bernard +30% | Steelers DST +46% | one QB +5% |
| Steelers close, over 44.5 | 19% | 4 PIT / 2 NO, Steelers captain +22% | Germie Bernard +38% | Darnell Washington +19% | both QBs +24% |
| Saints close, under 44.5 | 12% | 2 PIT / 4 NO, Saints captain +20% | Kendre Miller +53% | Saints DST +69% | one QB +5% |
| Saints close, over 44.5 | 16% | 3 PIT / 3 NO, Saints captain +25% | Kendre Miller +60% | Tyler Shough +19% | both QBs +25% |
| Saints by 10+, under 44.5 | 6% | 1 PIT / 5 NO, Saints captain +185% | Kendre Miller +142% | Saints DST +141% | one QB +9% |
| Saints by 10+, over 44.5 | 9% | 1 PIT / 5 NO, Saints captain +145% | Kendre Miller +118% | Daniel Carlson +32% | both QBs +17% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
The total picks the quarterbacks. Both are the best call in all four scripts that go over 44.5. One is the best call in all four that stay under.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 33% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 61% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 6% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | +7% | −1% | −29% |
| Steelers by 10+, under 44.5 | 10% | −16% | +10% | −10% |
| Steelers by 10+, over 44.5 | 14% | +15% | −3% | −50% |
| Steelers close, under 44.5 | 14% | −9% | +5% | −1% |
| Steelers close, over 44.5 | 19% | +24% | −9% | −38% |
| Saints close, under 44.5 | 12% | −10% | +5% | −2% |
| Saints close, over 44.5 | 16% | +25% | −9% | −45% |
| Saints by 10+, under 44.5 | 6% | −14% | +9% | −19% |
| Saints by 10+, over 44.5 | 9% | +17% | −4% | −51% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
About one lineup in four captains Warren, more than anybody else. Bernard is +24% at captain, and only one lineup in ten plays him there.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 24% | 37% | +3% |
| Chris Olave WR · NO | 14% | 38% | −9% |
| Germie Bernard WR · PIT | 10% | 42% | +24% |
| Tyler Shough QB · NO | 10% | 53% | −6% |
| DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 9% | 33% | +13% |
| Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | 7% | 57% | −11% |
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave WR · NO | $11,200 | −9% | −3% |
| Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | $10,400 | +3% | −1% |
| Tyler Shough QB · NO | $9,800 | −6% | +5% |
| DK Metcalf WR · PIT | $9,400 | +13% | −4% |
| Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT | $9,000 | −11% | +4% |
| Devaughn Vele WR · NO | $7,200 | −6% | −6% |
| Alvin Kamara RB · NO | $7,000 | −26% | −15% |
| Germie Bernard WR · PIT | $6,800 | +24% | +4% |
| Juwan Johnson TE · NO | $6,400 | −17% | −6% |
| Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT | $5,600 | +3% | +2% |
| Rico Dowdle RB · PIT | $5,400 | +5% | −2% |
| Kendre Miller RB · NO | $5,000 | +27% | +18% |
| Chris Boswell K · PIT | $4,800 | −8% | +1% |
| Daniel Carlson K · NO | $4,600 | −29% | −1% |
| Steelers DST · PIT | $4,400 | — | −2% |
| Darnell Washington TE · PIT | $4,200 | −10% | +7% |
| Saints DST · NO | $3,600 | — | −2% |
| Noah Fant TE · NO | $3,400 | — | −12% |
| Bryce Lance WR · NO | $3,000 | — | −6% |
| CJ Donaldson RB · NO | $2,400 | — | −13% |
| Barion Brown WR · NO | $2,000 | — | −48% |
| Oscar Delp TE · NO | $1,600 | — | −31% |
| Travis Homer RB · PIT | $1,400 | — | −45% |
Steelers by 10+, under 44.5 10% OF THE SIMS
Pittsburgh runs away in a slow one. Bernard stays at captain. Shough and Freiermuth come out, and the Steelers defense and DK Metcalf go in. One quarterback, five Steelers, and Miller's the one Saint.
Steelers by 10+, over 44.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Pittsburgh runs away in a shootout. Bernard stays at captain and both quarterbacks stay. Miller comes out and Chris Boswell, the Steelers kicker, goes in. Shough's the one Saint.
Steelers close, under 44.5 14% OF THE SIMS
Pittsburgh wins a slow one. Bernard stays at captain, and Warren works there too. Shough comes out and the Steelers defense goes in. One quarterback, and Miller stays.
Steelers close, over 44.5 19% OF THE SIMS
Pittsburgh wins a shootout. This is the likeliest script, and it's the plan as is. Bernard at captain, both quarterbacks, four Steelers and two Saints, no defense. Darnell Washington is the best flex play here.
Saints close, under 44.5 12% OF THE SIMS
New Orleans wins a slow one. Miller moves to captain and Bernard to the flex. Rodgers and Freiermuth come out, and the Saints defense and Olave come in. One quarterback, and it's Shough.
Saints close, over 44.5 16% OF THE SIMS
New Orleans wins a shootout. Miller moves to captain, Bernard goes to the flex, and both quarterbacks stay. Warren comes out and Olave comes in. Three Steelers, three Saints, no defense.
Saints by 10+, under 44.5 6% OF THE SIMS
New Orleans runs away in a slow one, about one game in 16. Miller at captain with Shough, Olave, Kamara and the Saints defense. Warren's the one Steeler.
Saints by 10+, over 44.5 9% OF THE SIMS
New Orleans runs away in a shootout. Miller at captain, both quarterbacks and no defense. Olave, Devaughn Vele and Daniel Carlson, the Saints kicker, fill it out. Rodgers is the one Steeler.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Let the total pick your quarterbacks. Over 44.5, play both. Under it, play one and add a defense.
- Kendre Miller is the flex play. He's +18% there and in the black in six of the eight scripts.
- Olave at captain is in the red in every script the Steelers win. That's 57% of the games.
- Spend it. Lineups that leave $1,100 or more are −25% or worse.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
No read on the game? Captain Bernard. Play both quarterbacks, add Warren and Pat Freiermuth, and put Miller in the flex. That's all $50,000. It's the first NFL game in Paris. I hear the smart fridges over there are narcs too. They just judge your cheese before they report your midnight snack.
TwoGun's too heavy on the underdog every week. This week the sim actually hands him a Saint, Kendre Miller, and then asks for a Steeler at captain anyway. He'll take the first part.
Pittsburgh's a 3-point favorite and the total's 44.5. It's in Paris, outdoors at Stade de France, with some wind and a chance of rain in the forecast. The Saints are the home team.
Rico Dowdle is questionable with a knee, but he's likely playing. Ben Skowronek is out. Alvin Kamara has a sore back and no injury tag, so he plays. I ran this Saturday, before the inactives. If somebody surprising sits, the plan changes with him.
Every ROI here has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%. A plus sign means you beat it.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
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