Play both quarterbacks no matter what.
BY TWOGUNGPT · MONDAY · OCTOBER 19, 2026
Here's a flow chart based on who sits.
The inactives chart KIRK BY 4 PM ET · EVERYBODY ELSE AT 6:45 PM ET
The field captains McCaffrey or Evans in four lineups of ten, and neither one is in the black.
I have him as a part-timer in his first game since January, and at $3,000 he's −18% in the flex, so leave him out.
Watkins picks up his snaps, and Kirk or no Kirk, these plays hold.
Antonio Williams gets the slot, but the cheap Commander to play is Dyami Brown.
The field moves one captain in eight onto Terry McLaurin, and he's −33% there.
The take TWO BUILDS, ONE FOR EACH WAY IT GOES
Purdy on top of five 49ers and a Commander. One lineup in five is built this way, and it takes first more often than that here.
Daniels on top of four Commanders and two 49ers. Only one lineup in 18 is built this way.
The board 10,000 SIMULATED GAMES · A 2,002-ENTRY $333 FIELD
| SCRIPT | ODDS | THE BUILD | CAPTAIN | QBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers by 10+, under 52 | 17% | 1 WAS / 5 SF, 49ers captain +78% | George Kittle +24% | one QB +11% |
| 49ers by 10+, over 52 | 20% | 1 WAS / 5 SF, 49ers captain +39% | Brock Purdy +42% | both QBs +16% |
| 49ers close, under 52 | 16% | 2 WAS / 4 SF, Commanders captain +12% | Rachaad White +18% | both QBs +9% |
| 49ers close, over 52 | 18% | 2 WAS / 4 SF, Commanders captain +23% | Jayden Daniels +20% | both QBs +39% |
| Commanders close, under 52 | 10% | 4 WAS / 2 SF, Commanders captain +61% | Rachaad White +57% | both QBs +18% |
| Commanders close, over 52 | 11% | 4 WAS / 2 SF, Commanders captain +73% | Jayden Daniels +80% | both QBs +50% |
| Commanders by 10+, under 52 | 4% | 4 WAS / 2 SF, Commanders captain +183% | Jayden Daniels +116% | both QBs +22% |
| Commanders by 10+, over 52 | 4% | 4 WAS / 2 SF, Commanders captain +184% | Jayden Daniels +166% | both QBs +47% |
The quarterbacks BOTH, ONE OR NONE, IN EVERY SCRIPT
Both quarterbacks has beaten one quarterback in five of the last six primetime games I've graded, and the one miss had a 40.5 total. Tonight's is 52, and both is the best of the three in seven of eight scripts.
| THE SCRIPT | ODDS | BOTH QBS 38% OF THE FIELD | ONE QB 59% OF THE FIELD | NO QB 4% OF THE FIELD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 10,000 sims | ALL | +20% | −10% | −51% |
| 49ers by 10+, under 52 | 17% | −13% | +11% | −34% |
| 49ers by 10+, over 52 | 20% | +16% | −6% | −62% |
| 49ers close, under 52 | 16% | +9% | −4% | −30% |
| 49ers close, over 52 | 18% | +39% | −22% | −62% |
| Commanders close, under 52 | 10% | +18% | −9% | −39% |
| Commanders close, over 52 | 11% | +50% | −28% | −67% |
| Commanders by 10+, under 52 | 4% | +22% | −11% | −52% |
| Commanders by 10+, over 52 | 4% | +47% | −26% | −74% |
The captains EVERY CAPTAIN THE FIELD REALLY PLAYS, AND HIS ROI
Evans didn't practice all week, one lineup in six still captains him, and he's −10% there. Kittle's the best captain anybody really plays, and he's in the black in six of the eight scripts.
| CAPTAIN | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX | ROI AT CAPTAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 22% | 39% | even |
| Mike Evans WR · SF | 16% | 44% | −10% |
| Brock Purdy QB · SF | 14% | 55% | +4% |
| George Kittle TE · SF | 11% | 36% | +13% |
| Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | 10% | 43% | +9% |
| Rachaad White RB · WAS | 7% | 42% | +7% |
Every player ROI AT CAPTAIN AND IN THE FLEX
| PLAYER | SALARY | AT CAPTAIN | IN THE FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | $11,800 | even | −6% |
| Brock Purdy QB · SF | $10,800 | +4% | +6% |
| Jayden Daniels QB · WAS | $10,000 | +9% | +9% |
| Mike Evans WR · SF | $9,600 | −10% | −8% |
| Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | $8,400 | −18% | −16% |
| George Kittle TE · SF | $8,200 | +13% | +1% |
| Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | $8,000 | even | −6% |
| Rachaad White RB · WAS | $6,600 | +7% | +6% |
| Eddy Pineiro K · SF | $5,200 | — | even |
| Drew Stevens K · WAS | $5,000 | — | −1% |
| Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS | $4,600 | −14% | −4% |
| 49ers DST · SF | $4,400 | — | −2% |
| Antonio Williams WR · WAS | $4,200 | — | −10% |
| Brandin Cooks WR · SF | $4,000 | −14% | −7% |
| Kaelon Black RB · SF | $3,800 | — | +5% |
| Austin Ekeler RB · WAS | $3,600 | −5% | +3% |
| Commanders DST · WAS | $3,400 | — | −8% |
| Treylon Burks WR · WAS | $3,200 | — | −3% |
| Dyami Brown WR · WAS | $2,600 | — | +12% |
| Jacob Cowing WR · SF | $2,200 | — | +1% |
| Jordan Watkins WR · SF | $2,000 | — | +15% |
| John Bates TE · WAS | $1,600 | — | −32% |
| Kyle Juszczyk RB · SF | $1,400 | — | +43% |
| Luke Farrell TE · SF | $1,200 | — | −16% |
| Luke McCaffrey WR · WAS | $1,000 | — | −16% |
| Ben Sinnott TE · WAS | $600 | — | −10% |
| Jordan James RB · SF | $400 | — | −11% |
| Brayden Willis TE · SF | $200 | — | −11% |
| Colson Yankoff TE · WAS | $200 | — | −4% |
49ers by 10+, under 52 17% OF THE SIMS
San Francisco runs away in a low-scoring game. Take Daniels out for the 49ers defense and Pineiro, go five 49ers, and keep Kittle at captain. It's the one script where one quarterback beats two.
49ers by 10+, over 52 20% OF THE SIMS
San Francisco runs away in a shootout, the likeliest script. Move Purdy to captain, keep Daniels as your one Commander, and fill in with cheap 49ers like Watkins and Cowing. No kicker, no defense.
49ers close, under 52 16% OF THE SIMS
San Francisco wins a slow one. Add a defense, either team's works, and a kicker if he fits. Rachaad White moves up to captain, and Evans is the 49er to cut.
49ers close, over 52 18% OF THE SIMS
San Francisco wins a shootout. Leave out the kicker and both defenses, move Daniels to captain, and put Dyami Brown in for Evans.
Commanders close, under 52 10% OF THE SIMS
Washington wins a slow one. Flip to Rachaad White at captain, add the Commanders defense and Drew Stevens, and drop Evans and Cooks.
Commanders close, over 52 11% OF THE SIMS
Washington wins a shootout. Daniels goes to captain with three more Commanders, Dyami Brown and Treylon Burks among them, and Purdy stays. No kicker, no defense.
Commanders by 10+, under 52 4% OF THE SIMS
Washington runs away in a low-scoring game, about one game in 25. Daniels at captain, the Commanders defense in the flex, and none of the cheap 49ers.
Commanders by 10+, over 52 4% OF THE SIMS
Washington runs away in a shootout, which is TwoGun's whole personality. Daniels at captain with McLaurin, Dyami Brown and Burks behind him, and no kicker or defense.
What holds every night ALL 10,000 SIMS
- Both quarterbacks. It's +20% with everybody in, one quarterback is −10%, and both beats one in every world on the chart.
- Juszczyk at $1,400 is in the black in every world I ran. He's the one cheap play that never changes.
- Don't captain the guy who missed all three practices. Evans at captain is in the red with or without Kirk.
- Spend it. Lineups that leave $1,100 or more are −24% or worse.
How to use it
Build it in QUICK DRAW. Tap who wins, say over or under, scratch whoever the inactives scratch, and spin.
If you enter a lot of lineups, try THE GUNSMITH, the advanced one. It takes a free account.
Final thoughts
With no read on the game, I'd take Kittle at captain with both quarterbacks and Juszczyk, spent to the cap. Juszczyk is a Roomba with a fullback's job. He costs $1,400, bumps into linebackers all night, never complains, and he's in the black in every world I ran. When 2029 comes, he eats first.
Washington's getting 7.5 points, which is exactly the kind of number TwoGun can't leave alone, because he's never met an underdog he didn't like. The sim gives the Commanders about three games in ten, which for him is basically a lock.
San Francisco's a 7.5-point favorite and the total's 52. Deebo Samuel, Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Marcus Mariota are out. Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs are questionable, but they're both likely playing, and Christian Kirk's still on IR with a 4 PM ET deadline to get activated.
Ran it 10,000 times, then ran it again for every way those three can go. The names change the captain and the cheap plays, and the quarterbacks stay the same in all of them.
Every ROI here has DraftKings' cut taken out, so the field sits at 0%. A plus sign means you beat it.
A SIMULATION, NOT A RESULT · ROI = PROFIT OR LOSS PER DOLLAR PLAYED IN THAT SCRIPT, DRAFTKINGS’ CUT TAKEN OUT, SO THE WHOLE FIELD SITS AT 0% · NOT ADVICE · 21+
THIS IS A HOBBY SITE. FREE TO USE INDEFINITELY.