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Should I draft T.J. Hockenson or Juwan Johnson? (PPR)
The verdict
Juwan Johnson
80%confident
Johnson out-scored him by two and a half a game and the projection trimmed him anyway. Easy client, easy call.
8.3 against 5.8 last season, same age, same round. The market still says Hockenson first out of brand loyalty.
Brand loyalty is how the market loses. 80%.
↻ Re-roll for the brand's closing argument.
T.J. Hockenson TE
MIN · Bye 6 · Age 29
ADP
155.4 · TE18
TwoGun Board
TE19 · #157
Dog
n/a
Juwan Johnson TE
NO · Bye 8 · Age 29
ADP
155.6 · TE19
TwoGun Board
TE18 · #146
Dog
n/a
| T.J. Hockenson | Juwan Johnson | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | • fair price | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 5.8 | 8.3 |
| 2025 games | 15 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 110.8 | 114.5 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 6.8 | 7.0 |
| Year over year | ▲ step up | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 78% | 75% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — no dog math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Brenton Strange or T.J. Hockenson?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
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