Should I draft T.J. Hockenson or Juwan Johnson? (PPR)

The verdict

Juwan Johnson

86%confident

A tenth of a point apart, same age, and one of them just got mugged by a spreadsheet.

Hockenson projects 9.2 to Johnson's 9.1 — a rounding error in a suit — and our board likes him a spot better. On the ledger it's a coin flip nobody wins.

Johnson averaged 10.6 across a full seventeen and got cut to 9.1 for it. Regression is what a spreadsheet says about men it's scared of. That's the tiebreak. 86%.

↻ Re-roll — the tenth of a point wants a recount and won't get one.

T.J. Hockenson TE

MIN · Bye 6 · Age 29

ADP

150.5 · TE17

TwoGun Board

TE16 · #135

Dawg

n/a

Juwan Johnson TE

NO · Bye 8 · Age 29

ADP

138.8 · TE15

TwoGun Board

TE17 · #137

Dawg

n/a

The tale of the tape
	T.J. Hockenson	Juwan Johnson
Market vs our board	• fair price	▼ -2 rich
2025 pts / gm (actual)	7.5	10.6
2025 games	15	17
2026 TwoGun proj pts	150.0	149.5
2026 proj / gm	9.2	9.1
Year over year	▲ step up	▼ regression (says the spreadsheet)
2025 snap share	78%	75%
TwoGun Dawg Rating™	n/a	n/a

Points per game: last year → this year

light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (PPR basis)

Where the room drafts them vs us

Dawg Rating™ breakdown

Dawg Rating: N/A — no dawg math for this position. TwoGun's AI stands by this.

Who actually got the work

MORE LIKE THIS: Brenton Strange or T.J. Hockenson?

MOCK THESE TWO IN THE APP

TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board (values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team); 2025 actuals via nflverse.
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