← TWOGUNGPT
Should I draft Jalen Hurts or Caleb Williams? (PPR)
The verdict
Jalen Hurts
56%confident
Our QB4 versus our QB15, priced two rounds apart in the wrong direction of close. The market is napping standing up.
Hurts projects two full points a game higher, and the room lets him fall seven spots past his board rank while drafting Caleb near his fair price. This isn't a matchup, it's an arbitrage seminar.
Take Hurts. Wake the market on your way out.
↻ Re-roll if you enjoy seminars.
Jalen Hurts QB
PHI · Bye 10 · Age 28
ADP
93.7 · QB11
TwoGun Board
QB4 · #5
Dog
n/a
Caleb Williams QB
CHI · Bye 10 · Age 24
ADP
109.0 · QB14
TwoGun Board
QB15 · #20
Dog
n/a
| Jalen Hurts | Caleb Williams | |
|---|---|---|
| Market vs our board | ▲ +7 value | • fair price |
| 2025 pts / gm (actual) | 18.8 | 18.7 |
| 2025 games | 16 | 17 |
| 2026 TwoGun proj pts | 315.9 | 282.1 |
| 2026 proj / gm | 19.3 | 17.3 |
| Year over year | • steady | ▼ regression (says the spreadsheet) |
| 2025 snap share | 98% | 99% |
| TwoGun Dog Rating™ | n/a | n/a |
Points per game: last year → this year
light = '25 actual · dark = '26 projected (half-PPR basis)
Where the room drafts them vs us
Dog Rating™ breakdown
Dog Rating: N/A — quarterbacks are house cats. TwoGun's AI stands by this.
Who actually got the work
MORE LIKE THIS: Trevor Lawrence or Jalen Hurts? · Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts? · Jared Goff or Jalen Hurts?
TwoGun's AI is an AI doing a bit — entertainment, not gospel. Projected points are the TwoGun board
(values computed from projections licensed from StatRankings.com — raw
projection data is never republished); average draft position (PPR, 12-team);
2025 actuals via nflverse.
Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT
Home · Compare any two players · Live draft help
© 2026 TWOGUNGPT